The Down Range Forum
Member Section => Down Range Cafe => Topic started by: TAB on September 10, 2022, 06:35:18 AM
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is out of stock...
It does not matter what it is... guns/parts, archery stuff, food, tools.... its getting annoying
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Trump’s fault
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Not a new phenom. A basic built in oven was 16 months out. LazyBoys 6 months.
Where it gets ridiculous is small parts.
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We keep hearing about record low unemployment. If we have such low unemployment, why can't we get our economy flying again, and products back on the shelves? Maybe the rest of the story needs to be told.
Workforce - The numbers participating in the American Workforce
66.4% - January 2007
62.8% - January 2017 (Trump takes the helm)
63.4% - January 2020
60.2% - April 2020 - The bottom of the COVID drop off
61.4% - January 2021 (Biden takes the helm)
62.4% - Today
There is a slew of people not going back to work, regardless of what your geriatric leader says. Trump had us up to 63.4%, and Biden's great victories can't even finish the recovery Trump started.
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We're going to start hearing more about less food in the coming months. We've just about finished up 2021's harvest and 2022's isn't looking great. No one should starve here in the US, but worldwide it may get very ugly soon.
Food is a logistics issue this year....next year it's a supply issue. Waiting on something that's not going to be there will be a shock.
Mike, how is the supply for the meat industry looking?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/list-33-things-we-know-about-coming-food-shortages (https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/list-33-things-we-know-about-coming-food-shortages)
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Meat is going to be an issue next year. I wonder what will happen to wild game. Will hunting pressure increase, will poaching increase?
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Meat will be, I believe, an issue on price and availability. Mike can clue us in on that. Supposing it is, there will be some hunting/poaching pressure increase.
I don't think city/suburb folk will focus on wild game. Those who live out further may. If you have a few head of cattle then hunting/poaching won't be high on the list but if you are in the country without livestock then those will be the people most likely to increase hunting/poaching.
You are right, there will be an uptick in hunting/poaching. I don't think it will be a groundswell of increased hunting/poaching because it won't be easy and so long as there are beans and rice, etc., most people will stay at home.
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I have friends that have 50+ chickens. They are in a small town that is not far from a big liberal hell hole. I would be worried they will have to defend them from people.
I can see that being an issue if meat becomes a real problem.
Me I will just harvest a few elk/deer/bores and know we will be fine
Granted I can afford to pay alot, I just don't. Hell I won't even pay the $10/ lb now for a sirloin steak.
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If the city folk start leaving the city to forage for food that may work but I would think only for a short period of time. That behavior would have to be driven by more than an absence of meat...they'll have to be looking for any food to stay alive.
They'll have to stay out of the city once they go foraging...going in and out will attract attention and they won't be able to keep what they bring back because someone they live with in the city will take it from them. So..., then they need a place to stay out of the city...good luck with that. It may work once or twice...but the price beyond that will probably get way high. If it's that bad there won't be enough gas or diesel either. So transportation will be an issue.
I did read the high estimate on ground beef is $50/pound. I think that is outrageously high. If it does get that high I will be light several head of cattle..... ;D
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That will kill off so many businesses
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$50 ground beef. Yeah, that will be the end of McDonalds, etc.
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We're going to start hearing more about less food in the coming months. We've just about finished up 2021's harvest and 2022's isn't looking great. No one should starve here in the US, but worldwide it may get very ugly soon.
Food is a logistics issue this year....next year it's a supply issue. Waiting on something that's not going to be there will be a shock.
Mike, how is the supply for the meat industry looking?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/list-33-things-we-know-about-coming-food-shortages (https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/list-33-things-we-know-about-coming-food-shortages)
So far things are good and looking good. Poultry prices are still high. Two years ago the long term pricing for boneless skinless breasts we were selling was $0.90 - $1.05. We went as high as $3.50, but now we are back down to $1.89. Labor is the biggest issue, and the poultry industry able to manipulate flock sizes quickly to adapt quickly. Pork and beef are very close to their historical norms. Biggest issue here again is labor. Plants are struggling to keep staffing and flow moving smoothly. Every Saturday we pick up a load of inside skirt that loads on Friday. The driver goes in at 2 or 3 am, grabs the trailer and is back in Chicago by 1300. This week he didn't leave the plant until 1730 on Saturday. All due to labor shortage on the cutting line.
All this translates to there will be meat available on some level for anyone who wants it. When COVID hit the plants went down, but those who can dress an animal themself or have access to someone who can bought meat on the hoof at bargain pricing.
Seriously though, take inventory of your land and skills. Plant a Victory Garden. Raise some chickens for meat and eggs. If you have some acres plant dry edible beans, wheat, oats, #2 yellow corn, etc.. Goats! Dairy goats are the most efficient dairy animal, they take minimal space, and their milk is tolerable for almost everyone.
Remember, we no longer have a grain reserve, and we run out of our grains every year at harvest time. The days of having one, two even three years of grain in reserve went away in the late 80's. The nation's food reserve is in your pantry and root cellar.
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$50 ground beef. Yeah, that will be the end of McDonalds, etc.
I don't see anything near this extreme happening. Most grinds are made with trim product - Lean from sizing and cleaning up primal cuts, with close trim fat added for desired blend. Grinds can be made with minimal labor, so when a plant has a major problem with workforce for cut and trim they can easily by-pass the meat to de-boning and grinding.
When labor is tight the more labor needed for a primal, the quicker it will be deleted from the supply chain.
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I've been trying to get a double oven electric range for the last 2 years. It's no better now, than it was then. We've replaced every appliance in the house since we moved in 3 years ago. But still can't find a decent range.
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I think it’s going to get worse from here. Maybe not. But I think so. I base this on the shipments from China to the US And the fact that Amazon is scaling back. I believe the scaling back reflects the reduced exports of China into the US. They are doing that on purpose I’m sure.
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... the bow sight i want, is 5-7 months back ordered. Went a head and put the deposit down. Hopefully I get it before next season
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I think it’s going to get worse from here. Maybe not. But I think so. I base this on the shipments from China to the US And the fact that Amazon is scaling back. I believe the scaling back reflects the reduced exports of China into the US. They are doing that on purpose I’m sure.
On one hand, I like the idea of importing LESS from China as we really need to become much more self-sufficient. On the other hand, I am not looking forward to the increased cost of everything on top of our ongoing inflation.
Hang on buttercup. The ride is going to get interesting!
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I like that idea as well. Trump was developing new sources to replace Chinese made stuff....and then they took him out of the game.
It is going to get bumpy and expensive...especially with the losers the swamp put in there to run things. Guns and butter guys...you gotta have guns and butter. With this bunch we're not going to have either.
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I like that idea as well. Trump was developing new sources to replace Chinese made stuff....and then they took him out of the game.
It is going to get bumpy and expensive...especially with the losers the swamp put in there to run things. Guns and butter guys...you gotta have guns and butter. With this bunch we're not going to have either.
Notice that Joe is trying to continue the Trump "bring it home" move without making it look that way?
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I have an insider in the fast food biz. He's warning of an upcoming shortage of turkey this fall. Miss Kitty and I are going the ham route for Thanksgiving.
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Go buy your turkey now. It is the same one that will be there in November.
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Go buy your turkey now. It is the same one that will be there in November.
I'm confused (not at all unusual these days). Are you saying there will be plenty of turkeys for Thanksgiving or buy it now and it will be there in November?
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I hate turkey. (The bird, not the country. They make nice guns). She's making homemade pizza instead.
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I hate turkey. (The bird, not the country. They make nice guns). She's making homemade pizza instead.
I like the idea of turkey, however the reality of turkey rarely lives up to the idea, which often leaves us with dry turkey.
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I like the idea of turkey, however the reality of turkey rarely lives up to the idea, which often leaves us with dry turkey.
Have you guys ever tried frying a turkey? First you inject them with spices and then you fry. We've never had anything near dry when we do this.
However...I prefer a smoked turkey. The family likes fried which is very good, but I prefer smoked turkey.
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Smoked or fried.... Anything but baked. Baking dries the hell out of the meat.
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Smoked or fried.... Anything but baked. Baking dries the hell out of the meat.
Ah we've used bags since they were invented, we're that old. All the moisture stays in and the gravy is to die for.
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Gravy. That's the tradeoff between baked and either smoked or fried.
A heckuva choice.
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We’ve had good luck with the bags. Never had smoked or fried.
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Have you guys ever tried frying a turkey? First you inject them with spices and then you fry. We've never had anything near dry when we do this.
However...I prefer a smoked turkey. The family likes fried which is very good, but I prefer smoked turkey.
Been frying turkeys for 25 years.
I switched to an oil-free outdoor fryer...... basically a large air frying pot.
I got tired of frying a $10 turkey in $75 worth of oil, and you can do ribs, roasts and most anything else in it too if it'll fit. ;D
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I'm confused (not at all unusual these days). Are you saying there will be plenty of turkeys for Thanksgiving or buy it now and it will be there in November?
I have not read anything about a turkey shortage this year. However, if you are concerned about supply, buy it now. If you wait there is a good chance you will pick up one at a reduced price, because stores use the bird as a loss leader.
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We’ve had good luck with the bags. Never had smoked or fried.
You should consider either smoked or fried. Peg likes the air frying....me not so much for anything.
I'm old and my attention span is short for any tasks where I'd prefer to be doing something else. Tending a smoker now and again fits that model. Other than a wild bird I smoked once, the Greenberg Smoked Turkey's are by far the best.
https://www.gobblegobble.com/view/home (https://www.gobblegobble.com/view/home)
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I have not read anything about a turkey shortage this year. However, if you are concerned about supply, buy it now. If you wait there is a good chance you will pick up one at a reduced price, because stores use the bird as a loss leader.
Picked up an 8 and an 8-1/2 lb bird. To be fried.
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Got a 14# yesterday from Publix for $7
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I got a 13 lb 4 oz....
With a bow yesterday.
You guys actually buy turkeys?
Ok I admit my tag cost more than a super market bird.
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Got a 14# yesterday from Publix for $7
We're coming up on loss leader time. Watching for the free or near free with minimum purchase.