The Down Range Forum
Member Section => Handguns => Topic started by: fullautovalmet76 on May 29, 2010, 09:32:17 AM
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I thought this might be a good discussion topic for the long weekend. My purpose is to stimulate discussion about what you think wlll be or should be the future of handguns - revolvers or pistols. What I'm hoping we get is a thoughtful discussion on the "not yet but could be" type of discussion. In fact, if you can make the case, you can argue that what we know as pistol or revolver will be obsolete. In my mind the time frame I'm looking at is 5 - 25 years into the future... So here it goes.
I believe that optics on carry guns will become common, and an expected feature, in the next 5 - 10 years. Though this isn't exactly revolutionary, and I am the least of those who have said this before, I do believe it will be the transition we will see. If any can correct me, I believe USPSA has been using optics for at least 15 years in competition.
When I saw those guns, I thought what a great idea for self defense, with the provision that I can still use my BUIS when the optic goes out. Most of the solutions today eliminate or partially eliminate the BUIS when using an optic, which is a negative for me. But FN has seemed to solve that problem with the release of the FNP-45 Tactical (http://www.fnhusa.com/le/products/firearms/model.asp?fid=FNF062&gid=FNG001&mid=FNM0173 (http://www.fnhusa.com/le/products/firearms/model.asp?fid=FNF062&gid=FNG001&mid=FNM0173)). If you look closely, you will see the red dot sight sits in a spot that has been machined out of the slide. According to FN the red dot sits atop the front sight, just like on an AR. I think this is a great thing! I believe if more manufacturers give this option we will see a big spike in red dot sales and a change in how some self defense tactics are taught.
I'm not saying this is a paradigm shift, I have a few of those I'm working on, but it does move us forward, not in a circle.
Chime in with your own thoughts, not just in disagreement or agreement with me, but what you think firearms will look like in 5 - 25 years from now.
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Good topic. One I appeciate as I have been screaming about "Why don't we get something new?" every time I see another 1911 come out. You are right though to keep it simple. I'm not sure about optics as they can be a bit bulky and hard to holster. CCW is driving the handgun market right now. I would think low profile lasers like those that replace the pin in the Glock or Crimson Trace style grips will become expected. The inclusion of an under rail already is, but I can't see carrying a surefire holstered. That might change as well.
FQ13
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As much as I would love to see an innovation in handguns....integral lasers and reliability/feed inmprovements in semi automatics, I'm not pining away for innovation. I could spend the rest of my life buying handguns of every type and size, playing with them, comparing them, and looking for more.
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I'm not really sure I want to see a great deal of innovation in handguns today. I'm not overly impressed with the recent innovations and their associated cost in rifles. Particularly black rifles like that ACR! What a waste!! I like my M&P and I like lasers on my guns. Optics would have to become very small before I would consider one on my CCW gun. How ever if the military were to adopt some thing like that FN I would be cool with it! I have seen a pic of a M&P with an optic like that one replacing the rear sight, it looked good, but I wouldn't want no manual rear sight on a carry gun. If it were mounted like the FN I suppose I might be willing to try it. See if it was comfortable and sturdy enough not to get broken to easily. Like Jay said I love fondling guns of all shapes and sizes. ;D
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I agree with FA and FQ, that the future trend will be toward building accessories into the original fire arm for example a 1911 with CT grips and a white LED guide rod like the lasermax site. Which still leaves the rail free for mounting your bayonet ) ;D
That isn't really "innovation", it is just doing a Swiss army job with existing technology.
For real innovation I think we should watch materials, propellants and further improvements in handgun bullet designs.
Mechanically there does not seem to be any room for further change in revolvers, or pistols beyond recoil management as with the Chiappa Rhino.
Unfortunately I think security devices will become more common, also a movement away from mechanical/chemical operation toward electric/chemical, or even electric/magnet propulsion.
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until we see a major change in ammo,we wn't see any major changes in hand guns.
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until we see a major change in ammo,we wn't see any major changes in hand guns.
Why?
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Ok...I'll go with three areas. Not saying it will be real soon. There would have to be reliability issues to resolve.
1. Fire by Wire. Striker is electronically release or even used to ignite the primer. LOTS of reliability issues. But if perfected eliminates all trigger movement errors.
2. Holographic Red Dot type sight. Lots of reliability and even technical issues to resolve. Like a red dot sight, but no screen. Have no idea if the technology is anywhere near compact enough or no screen is possible yet.
3. Caseless Ammo. The entire cartridge except for the projectile is propellant and would be consumed in firing. The would eliminate the ejection port and associated jamming problems. It would also facilitate the Fire By Wire ignition of the round.
Haven't been drinking. If I were, I'd probably have thrown in some type of self propelled ammo...little rockets or those Gyro rounds spoken of a while ago. :D :D :D
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I would second the why, with a caveat. What we have now,with revolvers and pistols works ok with existing ammo, so why do more than cram in more bullets or make them lighter or more accurate? Still, thats a limited vision. Someone smarter than me could come up with a different platform tomorow and we'd all be asking why someone didn't think of it a hundred years ago. Its the difference between John Moses Browning and Bill Ruger.
Still, I do think the next big jump will be driven by something like electric ignition, caseless ammo or some super new powder that is cleaner, hotter and powerful enough to radically shrink the case length.
FQ13
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Why?
Lets compare guns to the internal combustion enigne, yes things have changed, but your still take fuel and air mix, compressing it, then igniting it with a spark.
Think about all the changes they have made in the last hundred years when it comes to motors. They still work on the same ideas as they did a 100 years ago. Guns are the same thing.
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Designers have spent the last 100 years trying to improve handgun design. The good designs are still with us, the bad are just footnotes.
http://rock-island-auction.ammoland.com/824.html
Until someone comes up with some sort of energy weapon that is more efficient than a 44Mag. The current kinetic energy weapons in use today will be with us for some time to come.
What you wanna bet that the 2111 Government model will be a hot seller.
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With the exception of smaller lasers and/or holo-sights (think flip-up holo for easy holstering), I think the big innovations will be coming in ammo development. Improved powders giving more efficient burn and propulsion in shorter barrels....improved non-lead bullets exceeding current performance with less recoil....I'd even expect the end of the hollowpoint bullet for EMFJ/Critical Defense-type rounds by year 2100.
By the end of this century, I expect a 10"bbl P90 to have the same ballistic performance as a full-sized M16.....and a 9mm M9 pistol to have as much punch as a 7.62x39 FMJ fired from a shorty AK.....
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Why?
Let me thump the bible of JMB for a second ;) - The 1911 is 100 years old next year, older really in design. The handgun itself is reaching - or has reached - a plateau of near perfection. What we see today as others have put it above either a materials change in the handgun's manufacture or an accessories boomlet. But no real innovation, mostly experimentation to see what the market will go for.
The last real innovation IMHO - and it died quickly - was the gyro-jet handgun. And this is where the answer to Why? comes in - the next innovation will be where an innovation in the projectile drives innovation in the delivery system ala the gyrojet.
I can't recall the name of the outfit more recently, went out of business too IIRC, but they had a magnetic multi-projectile launcher, could shoot thousands of projectiles electrically fired. Something like that. Or not, that is the nature of innovation - you don't know what will come or from which direction.
Update - the company is Metal Storm and apparently they are still around. - http://www.metalstorm.com/component/option,com_frontpage/Itemid,79/ (http://www.metalstorm.com/component/option,com_frontpage/Itemid,79/)
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Remington, just released the R1 1911, it is a clone except for flared ejection port, and better sights, than the one released for WWI, 90 years ago. The "market demographics" and demand dictate direction.
Look at the .380 bandwagon many manufacturers jumped on. (the S&W Bodyguard is more bad ass than the LCP) IMHO.
Either way, check the hesitancy of purchasing a "new" model from anyone. It will get better, it will evolve, and I don't know exactly where it's headed.
But, as posted, my M+P, my FN, G21, and good ol' 1911, will be handed down, and when the "blasters" come out, I hope my son let's me shoot his. ::)
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I don't know if we need the handgun to change. It's a tool, designed for a particular purpose and it performs that function when it's asked. Because of our love of the sport and our curiosity of the design and function, we want things that are new and different to pique our interests.
We're human, we get bored or conditioned and somehow feel that if we don't have the latest and greatest "doo-dad" we'll be left behind. Personally, though I appreciate good design, I don't feel the need to buy the latest and greatest but rather marvel at the simplicity of what works.
Certainly we will see radical changes in design, materials or optics but the tool itself is still just doing its job. Expanding gases forcing a mass through a cylinder and propelling it in the desired direction.
Polymer technology is the norm but it really came about out of a need to minimize cost while maximizing repeatability. A great and easy way to make accurate parts in a cost effective manner. Not exactly revolutionary but it served it's purpose. Gaston and the boys were the first to the game but since, they've done nothing extraordinary.
Pardon me for rambling boys and girls. I'm sittin' here sipping a 15 year old Single Malt and getting quite goofy... ;D
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Pardon me for rambling boys and girls. I'm sittin' here sipping a 15 year old Single Malt and getting quite goofy... ;D
I'd say profound, but it would go to your head (much like the single malt), so I'll stay with goofy as well. ;D Still, you are right. What we have works. BUT...one of two things will happen.
Option one (The Bill Ruger/Gaston Glock option), someone will figure out how to make the platforms we have work better/cheaper/smarter.
Option two (the JMB option), smoeone will come up with either new mechanics or a new propulsion system that changes the game.
I'm like you, I like the old stuff. My favorite gun is a 20 gauge Parker SxS that my Great Granddad bought new in 1918. I spent way more than I could afford buying a 12 gauge Merkel to kill duccks with. I won't change either my basic hunting or SD battery. Still, I do like new toys and there are always three or four spots in the stable for guns I'll buy, try and trade in, just to get to play with them. I'm hoping some innovation will make one of those an I wouldn't part with it on a bet gun.
FQ13
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I just don't think an energy weapon would be as fun to shoot as a projectile weapon.
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until we see a major change in ammo,we wn't see any major changes in hand guns.
Hornady Superformance. They're able to get 100+ fps out of the same rounds without excessive pressures. I expect this to trickle down to handguns. In fact, powder technology hasn't changed that much since smokeless powder was invented 100+ years ago.
We have better ammo today, but there's the problem with older guns' metallurgy not being able to stand more powerful rounds, so they don't allow it to be made. We'd need all new rounds (and guns)(like .40S&W and .45GAP) to harness higher pressures.
I expect to see smaller and lighter guns in the near future. The concealed carry market will drive R&D. We already have new service sized guns thanks to Big Army's aborted replacement of the M9. We've seen the explosion of tiny .380acp guns, so expect to see a bunch of mouseguns in 9mm. I think we'll see holster and accessory advancements tied to guns. For example, how about optical sights (or lasers) that turn on when drawn from a holster, and off when re-holstered? We have magazines with witness holes to show round count. How about guns that show this too? Speaking of lasers, expect to see these on guns whose sight picture is poor (small guns). There haven't been many titanium handguns. Why? Further out, I expect to see recoil dealt with in new ways. This might change the shape of guns.
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I think Overload just touched on the crux of new development.
Most of the gun inovations over the last 150 years were driven by the War Dept or Pentagon. We're not seeing that anymore and what's changed is private company development will stagnate due to a lack of funds. Competition today is driven by a commercial market with limited dollars to spend. It really boils down to who want's to take the most risk with no guarantee of return.
Most cartridge inovation is not in the auto loading guns but in the revolvers. Nearly all of the autoloading cartridges are pushing the 100 year mark as already mentioned. Bullet design can change the face of a particular cartridge but not neccessarily change the platform with which it's delivered.
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I throw this in for a little spice:
When I first saw his videos about 20 years ago, they really changed me and how I look at the world.
I wish I could find his video about paradigms. Barker tells the story about the 1968 watch convention, or something like that, where Swiss made watches where considered the best in the world. For those old enough to remember, including me, remember that watches used to be comprised of springs and gears and the best came from the Swiss. But a company at the show came up with a design that completely changed the game- Seiko introduced the first watch that was driven by a quartz motor. The conventional wisdom lampooned and dismissed this design, but as history has shown that type of watch took over and eclipsed Swiss made watches.
Side note: I think Michael Bane used to work with this guy or something but I could be wrong.
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Timothy, 2 things about your posts
" Expanding gases forcing a mass through a cylinder and propelling it in the desired direction. "
That is one thing that is already changing with that "MetalStorm" system that was mentioned. In that system an electromagnet propels the round , the cyclic rate is limited only by the speed of electrons.
Heck, people have already built guns that work on centrifugal force instead of pressure ;D
The other thing,
"Most of the gun innovations over the last 150 years were driven by the War Dept or Pentagon. We're not seeing that anymore and what's changed is private company development will stagnate due to a lack of funds. Competition today is driven by a commercial market with limited dollars to spend. It really boils down to who want's to take the most risk with no guarentee of return."
I think you, like Samuel Colt, underestimate the power of "commercial" sales. S&W focused on the commercial market, so did H&R and Iver Johnson.
One place we will see innovation now is in the Business model.
We now have the answer to "What is Cerberus up to?"
MB's podcast this week mentions that Freedom Group is going public, Think of it as "America's AR made by America's Company" because most of the stocks will be bought up by mutual funds to help finance retirements, same as with oil ;D
Let me thump the bible of JMB for a second ;) -
The last real innovation IMHO - and it died quickly - was the gyro-jet handgun. And this is where the answer to Why? comes in - the next innovation will be where an innovation in the projectile drives innovation in the delivery system ala the gyrojet.
I can't recall the name of the outfit more recently, went out of business too IIRC, but they had a magnetic multi-projectile launcher, could shoot thousands of projectiles electrically fired. Something like that. Or not, that is the nature of innovation - you don't know what will come or from which direction.
Update - the company is Metal Storm and apparently they are still around. - http://www.metalstorm.com/component/option,com_frontpage/Itemid,79/ (http://www.metalstorm.com/component/option,com_frontpage/Itemid,79/)
Amen to that sermon ;D
The reason the Gyro Jet never took off was it's awe inspiring lack of accuracy.
Instead of spinning to achieve stability in a straight line the little rocket spiraled through the air and it's POI could be anywhere in the diameter of the spiral.
Overload, the reason Ti. pistols faded out was because China bought a butt load of it and drove the price up 300%+
Why?
Cuz we are intensely curious tinkerers. ;D
On the annaversery of the conquest of Mount Everest I can best answer your question by pointing out,
"Because it's there".
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Cuz we are intensely curious tinkerers. ;D
On the annaversery of the conquest of Mount Everest I can best answer your question by pointing out,
"Because it's there".
There is nothing more dangerous on God's green earth than a smart and curious redneck with a good set of tools! ;D We will find something new. Whether it becomes commercially viable is a whole different question.
FQ13
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This is a cool thread, I'd like to hear the ideas for future research, Lasers, can we make a battery pack small enough to make a "Rail gun" practical for CCW ?
By the way, I believe Knight's Fire Arms made a muzzle loader that utilized some sort of electric firing device to ignite the cap.
Of course electric switches have been used in place of triggers for ages, I believe Remington once offered a push button trigger on a high end custom target /competition model
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I think Overload is right about old cartridges and pressure limits. That could mean that the .45 acp has gone as far as it can go, even though that's pretty good. Maybe we allow these other newer cartridges, like .45 GAP, to die too soon. Does the GAP allow for the higher pressures and could you expect at least acp performance from the smaller cartridge? If so, it's a shame what's happening to that round. All of the GAP guns are being liquidated cheap at the local shops.
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This is a cool thread, I'd like to hear the ideas for future research, Lasers, can we make a battery pack small enough to make a "Rail gun" practical for CCW ?
By the way, I believe Knight's Fire Arms made a muzzle loader that utilized some sort of electric firing device to ignite the cap.
Of course electric switches have been used in place of triggers for ages, I believe Remington once offered a push button trigger on a high end custom target /competition model
just a little FYI, the ATF says any electornicly fired gun that is not manuelly loaded( bolt action, lever gun, single shot) is a Machine gun.
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I think you, like Samuel Colt, underestimate the power of "commercial" sales. S&W focused on the commercial market, so did H&R and Iver Johnson.
Good point. I don't underestimate but realize that we all balance our checkbooks at the end of the month and when we see red, we stop spending.
The Fed will just continue to print more which gives them unlimited resource in our tax dollars. It's the same people paying for the R&D but one is doing it willingly while the other is confiscating our money and spending it against our will.
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just a little FYI, the ATF says any electornicly fired gun that is not manuelly loaded( bolt action, lever gun, single shot) is a Machine gun.
Understood, TAB. But the purpose of this thread is to stimulate ideas about what could be possible or might be, so let's suspend the ATF for a bit.
I have read some good stuff here already. And I do believe that sometimes over a few beers the creativity can be greatly enhanced! ;) So moderate consumption is encouraged, if that is what gets your creative and intellectual juices flowing. ;D
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By the way, I believe Knight's Fire Arms made a muzzle loader that utilized some sort of electric firing device to ignite the cap.
Of course electric switches have been used in place of triggers for ages, I believe Remington once offered a push button trigger on a high end custom target /competition model
Remington marketed an 'electrically fired' M700 'EtronX' VSSF rifle around 1999 and used a specially primed cartridge, generally varmint rifle calibers like .22-250, .220 swift, and .243 Win. I also remember there being interest shown in the basic mechanics/electronics by S&W(prehaps others as well) at the time, the reduction or complete elimination of 'lock time' was the primary advantage and seling point. It was supposed to eliminate the 'human error' factor from the firing sequence. It was discontinued ~2004 IIRC due to lack of sales and ammunition availability issues.
Perhaps something like this system will become the wave of the future by incorporating the zero lock time ideal to defensive firearms or military/ LE weapons? The cyclic rate of selective fire types weapons would be phenomenal.
Once it's perfedted of course.......
Here are some links to the EtronX.....
http://www.gunweek.com/2003/feature0210.html
http://www.popularmechanics.com/outdoors/survival/gear/1277311
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I just don't think an energy weapon would be as fun to shoot as a projectile weapon.
I call bullsh@t on that! Fuzz, set phasers to stun. Tell me you haven't wanted to say that with a straight face. ;)
FQ13
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As urbanization spreads and we start pushing for more ranges I think a turn around on the general attitude toward suppressors may occur where the former impression of "assassin tool" changes to a safety issue and a matter of noise reduction.
That would bring to market handguns and long guns designed with integral suppressors, instead of as an accessory.
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I want to followup on something that both Tom and TAB touched on. The law will have an effect on hangun development. After the 1994 law choking magazine capacity to 10 rounds, we saw a bunch of smaller pistols that were designed to hold 10 rounds. I heard them called Clinton Guns. Wonder why we don't have more pistol caliber carbines? It's partially due to it being illegal to have shoulder stocks and barrels of less than 16" on the same gun. If mufflers are made fully legal again, prices will come down and we'll see even more innovation.
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Toms right about suppressors. The only thing that drive that is a collision between noise ordinances and a large constituency wanting to shoot. Unless the pitch can be made the devices are no diffeent than car mufflers, a way to be polite to the neighbors, people will see them as James Bond style assasins tools. The Fudds will be silent as well, as they see them as unsporting poachers tools. It would still be fun to have one, but the regs, expense and short life expectancy of the things means I won't own one until I can either buy it at Wall Mart or Tom gets elected. ;D
FQ13, who means no offense Tom, just being prepared. ;)
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Toms right about suppressors. The only thing that drive that is a collision between noise ordinances and a large constituency wanting to shoot. Unless the pitch can be made the devices are no diffeent than car mufflers, a way to be polite to the neighbors, people will see them as James Bond style assasins tools. The Fudds will be silent as well, as they see them as unsporting poachers tools. It would still be fun to have one, but the regs, expense and short life expectancy of the things means I won't own one until I can either buy it at Wall Mart or Tom gets elected. ;D
FQ13, who means no offense Tom, just being prepared. ;)
It will be part of my Environmental policy ;D.
But seriously, Before the NFA suppressors were standard equipment for the shooting galleries at Coney Island and else where, as well as being used to shoot rodents in the cities without scaring the neighbors.
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(http://i296.photobucket.com/albums/mm182/twyacht/covieplasmapistolfuture.jpg)
I wonder how the ATF would classify plasma??? and consider it evil? ??? It's OK in televisions.... ::)
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(http://i296.photobucket.com/albums/mm182/twyacht/covieplasmapistolfuture.jpg)
I wonder how the ATF would classify plasma??? and consider it evil? ??? It's OK in televisions.... ::)
"Hey, just what you see on the rack, pal."
Shameless Terminator quote.