The Down Range Forum
Member Section => Down Range Cafe => Topic started by: texcaliber on June 11, 2010, 10:46:19 AM
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http://www.thebostonchannel.com/video/23860281/index.html
I look forward to you comments.
tex
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I read an article this morning regarding a Senator, and NASA folk, that wanted a hundred million to 'protect' us from the solar storms. Don't spend my money on these unknowns. I hold this stuff on the same level as global warming and global freezing, a bunch of scientist that want their names on a building or in a bill, and want to be able to push their will on others.
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Tex,
Solar flares or 'sun spots' are a well proved occurrence that does interfere with communications. Similar to EMP but not as powerful.
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This was a good blurb for a show about solar flairs, no doom and gloom, just straight explanation of observed phenomenon.
I need to warn Texas Bryan, that this actually IS a valid concern. Back around the turn of the Century ( 19th / 20th ).
We had a series of solar storms so severe that they knocked out telegraph service in places. Think how much more damage these would cause today when EVERYTHING is computerized. My ex wife used to be an assembler at Cabletron, the components are so delicate that they have to be packed in special baggies that do not generate static electricity and the workers have to wear grounding straps.
The next cycle is thought to be as potent or even more so.
Another thing, all our surveillance satellites are looking inward. Considering the amount of crap flying around in space, and the number of times the Earth and Moon have taken major hit's (like the one that formed the Gulf of Mexico )
this is like walking into the street with out checking for traffic.
Here are a couple links .
http://www.onesecondafter.com/pb/wp_d10e87d9/wp_d10e87d9.html
http://www.downrange.tv/forum/index.php?topic=7334.0
http://www.downrange.tv/forum/index.php?topic=9521.msg123291#msg123291
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This was a good blurb for a show about solar flairs, no doom and gloom, just straight explanation of observed phenomenon.
I need to warn Texas Bryan, that this actually IS a valid concern. Back around the turn of the Century ( 19th / 20th ).
We had a series of solar storms so severe that they knocked out telegraph service in places. Think how much more damage these would cause today when EVERYTHING is computerized. My ex wife used to be an assembler at Cabletron, the components are so delicate that they have to be packed in special baggies that do not generate static electricity and the workers have to wear grounding straps.
The next cycle is thought to be as potent or even more so.
Another thing, all our surveillance satellites are looking inward. Considering the amount of crap flying around in space, and the number of times the Earth and Moon have taken major hit's (like the one that formed the Gulf of Mexico )
this is like walking into the street with out checking for traffic.
They package everything in static bags nowadays, for little purpose I've found. And the static grounds are standard too working on anything. Working on computers for almost half a decade, I know its nothing, I've never had a failure, but I can appreciate good practices. But most people form their concerns and opinions on this subject based off of yellow sensationalized documentaries on television, not science. The same way they form opinions on global warming. If this is a big concern fine, but don't sell me, 'I saw an episode of 'The Day Everyone Died in a Big Sun Explosion' and now I think we should...'.
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This was a good blurb for a show about solar flairs, no doom and gloom, just straight explanation of observed phenomenon.
I need to warn Texas Bryan, that this actually IS a valid concern. Back around the turn of the Century ( 19th / 20th ).
We had a series of solar storms so severe that they knocked out telegraph service in places. Think how much more damage these would cause today when EVERYTHING is computerized. My ex wife used to be an assembler at Cabletron, the components are so delicate that they have to be packed in special baggies that do not generate static electricity and the workers have to wear grounding straps.
The next cycle is thought to be as potent or even more so.
Another thing, all our surveillance satellites are looking inward. Considering the amount of crap flying around in space, and the number of times the Earth and Moon have taken major hit's (like the one that formed the Gulf of Mexico )
this is like walking into the street with out checking for traffic.
Agreed. With increasing density of integrated circuits the effects of solar storms will be more pronounced.
The 'rough' asteroid threat is also real.
The designers of communications satellites, power grid equipment and other sensitive components should we aware of the possible effects of solar storms on the equipment they employ. It is in their best interest to have the gear able to withstand solar storms and they won't need a government grant to do the research.
The asteroid issue is a concern where resources need to be allocated.
When BHO proposed an asteroid landing as the next NASA goal, I don't know if he had this in mind, but it might be a first step in addressing the problem. Not sure if we can do enough tracking from near earth observatories.
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From Solus :
"The designers of communications satellites, power grid equipment and other sensitive components should we aware of the possible effects of solar storms on the equipment they employ. It is in their best interest to have the gear able to withstand solar storms and they won't need a government grant to do the research."
This is very true, but the sad fact is that they are so blind to anything outside their specialty that they even overlooked the dangers of changing from 1999 to 2000 in the date.
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From Solus :
"The designers of communications satellites, power grid equipment and other sensitive components should we aware of the possible effects of solar storms on the equipment they employ. It is in their best interest to have the gear able to withstand solar storms and they won't need a government grant to do the research."
This is very true, but the sad fact is that they are so blind to anything outside their specialty that they even overlooked the dangers of changing from 1999 to 2000 in the date.
It never even crossed their minds. Just an industry wide "Doh!" moment. Of course the upside is that it did sell a lot of generators and MREs to those who expect the Endtimes to begin next Tuesday. ;D
FQ13
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It never even crossed their minds. Just an industry wide "Doh!" moment. Of course the upside is that it did sell a lot of generators and MREs to those who expect the Endtimes to begin next Tuesday. ;D
FQ13
You live in Fl. and you STILL don't "get it" ? :o
The people who bought MRE's and generators with the ones with sense enough to realize that with our societies increasing use of computers, and microcirctry the odds of, as you say, "the Endtimes to begin next Tuesday", continue to increase.
quick example, the North East Black out 1967 ( ? ) MB will remember the year. ;D
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From Solus :
"The designers of communications satellites, power grid equipment and other sensitive components should we aware of the possible effects of solar storms on the equipment they employ. It is in their best interest to have the gear able to withstand solar storms and they won't need a government grant to do the research."
This is very true, but the sad fact is that they are so blind to anything outside their specialty that they even overlooked the dangers of changing from 1999 to 2000 in the date.
I worked in the IT industry during the Y2K 'Crisis'.
The problem was that it was the practice to use a 2 digit year to save computer memory and disk storage during a time when computer memory cost $1000s per 1024 bytes.
The folks in the industry were well aware of the problem many years before Y2K and more modern systems used a 4 digit year and steps were taken to well in advance to avert any problems that might occur. Successfully, I might add.
The media generated panic was where all the 'crisis' existed. I spoke to folks who thought the problem was some how "Cosmic" in nature and thought simply turning off the computer over night on New Year's Eve would avoid the problem.
Correcting the problem was rather simple...a one or two line change where needed. The time and expense was incurred in finding all the places in existing programs where the code needed to be changed.
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The only thing that prevented it from being the major disaster that was feared ( Random computer crashes in systems from PC's to DOD systems ) was that it WAS caught in time, and the ".a one or two line change where needed" were pretty much all found and fixed. ( there will ALWAYS be people who are to cheap or short sighted to take the precautions they should. I would bet my current Employer had problems ;D )
After posting this I made the connection that if the cheap or short sighted people are in the wrong places it could have BAD consequences, think Katrina.
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You live in Fl. and you STILL don't "get it" ? :o
The people who bought MRE's and generators with the ones with sense enough to realize that with our societies increasing use of computers, and microcirctry the odds of, as you say, "the Endtimes to begin next Tuesday", continue to increase.
quick example, the North East Black out 1967 ( ? ) MB will remember the year. ;D
Dude I've got the generator, second breaker box to accomadate and thirty days of water and food (not MREs, just canned goods I'll probably eat anyway so no wasted money). If you recall, I also purchased an AR with an eo-tech ;). I was just pointing out that you could probably have gotten one hell of a deal on a never used generator on January 3rd of 2000. ;D
FQ13
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Dude I've got the generator, second breaker box to accomadate and thirty days of water and food (not MREs, just canned goods I'll probably eat anyway so no wasted money). If you recall, I also purchased an AR with an eo-tech ;). I was just pointing out that you could probably have gotten one hell of a deal on a never used generator on January 3rd of 2000. ;D
FQ13
Actually, My Dad picked up a commercial diesel generator for $500 about the time of my 40th birthday ( Feb 2K ) ;D
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The only thing that prevented it from being the major disaster that was feared ( Random computer crashes in systems from PC's to DOD systems ) was that it WAS caught in time, and the ".a one or two line change where needed" were pretty much all found and fixed. ( there will ALWAYS be people who are to cheap or short sighted to take the precautions they should. I would bet my current Employer had problems ;D )
After posting this I made the connection that if the cheap or short sighted people are in the wrong places it could have BAD consequences, think Katrina.
I remember where I was working when I first heard the Y2K problem discussed. It was between 1976 and 1978. It was a matter of economics. Why make changes that won't be needed for 22+ years when current computer time and storage costs would make the total tab many 1000s of times greater than it would cost if we planned to do the changes when they were needed and the expense would be more reasonable.
It was a good and economical decision by the IT profession in general. The situation was just turned into a crisis by th e Al Gores of that time frame.
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I agree with most of what has been posted before, but I would add a couple of thoughts. Solar flares have been around a lot longer than we have. Obviously, they only began to be an issue as we discovered more ways to use electricity and radio signals and computers.
I was sailing in the Western Caribbean during the last period of flare activity and discovered that the operative word was "may" as in "may cause..."
I operated an SSB station aboard my vessel, providing localized weather information to cruising boats throughout the region, and rarely had problems with communication--even on high activity days. I found that solar activity actually improved my ability to reach distant stations in some cases. The problem is that there is no particular norm--nothing that you can correct for with regularity.
For the most part, the greatest problem was an increase in static. GPS worked just fine. RADAR worked just fine. VHF worked just fine. FM broadcast and reception were only modestly impacted.
The most important thing from my perspective is that there will be an increase in Northern Light activity. Go north and enjoy the view.
Crusader
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Tex,
Solar flares or 'sun spots' are a well proved occurrence that does interfere with communications. Similar to EMP but not as powerful.
Respectfully Haz, I beg to differ.
It is true that the average solar flare may not be powerful enough to create world wide havoc, but if it is followed by a Coronal Mass Ejection, directed at the earth, we are in deep doodoo. A CME is a cloud of highly charged particles and plasma, several millions of tons heavy and with sufficient energy to wipe out most of the worlds electronics and power systems in one blast.
Luckily these kind of events are not only quite rare but need to be directly aimed at the earth. As it is said: close only counts with horse shoes and handgrenades.
Ocin
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I worked in the IT industry during the Y2K 'Crisis'.
The problem was that it was the practice to use a 2 digit year to save computer memory and disk storage during a time when computer memory cost $1000s per 1024 bytes.
and wasn't is a $$$ maker to fix the issue over 98/99 :-\
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and wasn't is a $$$ maker to fix the issue over 98/99 :-\
It sure was. Much of it was farmed out to India since it was mostly beginner work to identify what code areas were affected. Fixing it and testing it were a bit more complicated...but not much.
As an example of how the economics of computer usage has changed, back in the late 70s era, there was a procedure called desk checking. A programmer would go through his program step by step keeping track of all the numbers and data on paper to verify the results before the program was tested on a computer. This process might take several weeks for a complicated program.
Programmers were not cheap even them, but weeks of programmer time cost less than the 20 minutes or so of computer time it might take to do the same testing.
The thought of desk checking a computer program today is ludicrous with the speed and comparatives dirt cheap cost of computer time. In that same 20 minutes of computer time, the programmer might be able to test his program 10 times, not counting the time it would take to make the corrections. And the computer might be sitting on his desk and cost a few thousands of dollars instead of occupying an entire floor of a office building and costing a few millions of dollars.