The Down Range Forum
Member Section => Down Range Cafe => Topic started by: PegLeg45 on April 26, 2011, 05:24:36 PM
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This is something that most intelligent folks have seen coming, but here it is anyway:
IMF Bombshell: Age of America Nears End
by Brett Arends
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
The International Monetary Fund has just dropped a bombshell, and nobody noticed.
For the first time, the international organization has set a date for the moment when the "Age of America" will end and the U.S. economy will be overtaken by that of China.
And it's a lot closer than you may think.
According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China's economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 — just five years from now.
Put that in your calendar.
It provides a painful context for the budget wrangling taking place in Washington right now. It raises enormous questions about what the international security system is going to look like in just a handful of years. And it casts a deepening cloud over both the U.S. dollar and the giant Treasury market, which have been propped up for decades by their privileged status as the liabilities of the world's hegemonic power.
According to the IMF forecast, which was quietly posted on the Fund's website just two weeks ago, whoever is elected U.S. president next year — Obama? Mitt Romney? Donald Trump? — will be the last to preside over the world's largest economy.
More at link.
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/112616/imf-bombshell-age-america-end-marketwatch
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Not really a surprise for anyone who has been paying attention for the past 2+ years. Yes, FQ (who voted for bho), I know this whole mess was accelerated under Bush, and most if not all of the President's since Kennedy. However, bho was anointed to drive the final nail in the coffin, and for that one can only hope he burns in hell for his transgressions.
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No surprise in that announcement. Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.
I wonder how many "scholars" can even spell history these days?
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No surprise, but an overwhelmingly sad situation. I just hope it all lasts long enough for me to tell and show my young grandsons some of the glory of what my nation was. I fear there is not enough time left--they are nearly 3 and nearly 1 and the age of reason doesn't even start until age 7.
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Remember this though. Despite the fact that we have gutted our industrial infrastructure and indebted ourselves to our eyeballs (policies begun under Reagan and continuing to the present day), China is still a paper tiger. It has more people than it can feed and is utterly dependent on an export economy backed up by a grossly devalued currency. If the Yuan were allowed to float, like every other currency, the price of Chinese goods would skyrocket and it would kick their economy in the teeth. This is China's dilemna. They want the political power of edging us out.BUT, if they want the Yuan to take over as the global reserve, they have to let it float and that will tank their economy. I am concerned, but not overly worried.
FQ13
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Remember this though. Despite the fact that we have gutted our industrial infrastructure and indebted ourselves to our eyeballs (policies begun under Reagan and continuing to the present day), China is still a paper tiger. It has more people than it can feed and is utterly dependent on an export economy backed up by a grossly devalued currency. If the Yuan were allowed to float, like every other currency, the price of Chinese goods would skyrocket and it would kick their economy in the teeth. This is China's dilemna. They want the political power of edging us out.BUT, if they want the Yuan to take over as the global reserve, they have to let it float and that will tank their economy. I am concerned, but not overly worried.
FQ13
I worry more about the Dollar losing it's status as the Global Reserve than our position relative to the Chinese economy.
With our current and deteriorating financial status, that is a real danger and would inflict tremendous negative consequences upon our standard of living and way of life.
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Remember this though. Despite the fact that we have gutted our industrial infrastructure and indebted ourselves to our eyeballs (policies begun under Reagan and continuing to the present day), China is still a paper tiger.
Thank you for once again showing your true "moral equivalency" colors. For the record, it actually started after WWII at Bretton Woods II, and we were warned by Eisenhower. Did you take a class on how to be a useful idiot or does it just come naturally?
If the Yuan were allowed to float, like every other currency, the price of Chinese goods would skyrocket and it would kick their economy in the teeth. This is China's dilemna. They want the political power of edging us out.BUT, if they want the Yuan to take over as the global reserve, they have to let it float and that will tank their economy. I am concerned, but not overly worried.
FQ13
In fact, that will happen, once the US $ tanks over the next year or so. It will happen because there are those pulling the strings that want it to happen, and we will then see a unified world currency by 2014-15, if not sooner.
One of the solutions to our current dilemma would be to default to the Fed Reserve and re-issue the dollar on a new base of some sort, but not fiat. The world powers will not allow that, and will instead move everyone to a world fiat currency that can be manipulated - so the powers will become more powerful by controlling the very means of production, consumption, and payment for the above.
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Just to put your dollar in context a few years ago our dollar was only worth .50c US now our dollar is worth 1.08 US.
A holiday in the US is looking better!
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Just to put your dollar in context a few years ago our dollar was only worth .50c US now our dollar is worth 1.08 US.
A holiday in the US is looking better!
If you can make it by Friday I've got some passes for the NRA convention. ;D
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Thank you for once again showing your true "moral equivalency" colors. For the record, it actually started after WWII at Bretton Woods II, and we were warned by Eisenhower. Did you take a class on how to be a useful idiot or does it just come naturally?
Kind of hard not to go for moral equilvalency when things are equivalent. Look, love Reagan or hate him (I'm in the midle for a lot of reasons), the fact remains that he ran up what was until then the largest peace time deficiet in US history. Likewise, the beginning of out sourcing began in the '80s. Doesn't make him a bad President, but you can't say the man is blameless either. The idea of tax cuts and increased spending financed by debt being business as usual truly metastized under Reagan. No one after him changed this mindset and that is just history Path.
FQ13
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FQ needs to study history instead of parroting the BS he was indoctrinated with by his communist instructors.
Since the Militaries of at least 2 countries give awards for the "Cold war" I don't think you could count Reagan's terms as "peacetime.
Path is only partially correct.
The economic aspects were put in place at Bretton Woods, (Where Soros just held another summit last month, and since it's less than 50 miles from here I would have been there had I known before, instead of after )
The philosophy behind it was formulated by the "Frankfurt School" group after WWI.
The fact that every one misses, including the US Govt. is that the "Cold War" is not a conflict between states. It is a conflict between ideologies, we were not fighting "the Soviet Union", their collapse means no more than the fall of communism in Jamiaca in the 70's or the overthrow of the communist regime in Greneda. Our foe is the "Communist International" (ComIntern) which has no borders, and has forces in nearly every country on earth. Our "Cold war" is against the Jane Fonda's and other 60's communist radicals who moderated their rhetoric and now are in positions of influence throughout society.
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Look, love Reagan or hate him (I'm in the midle for a lot of reasons), the fact remains that he ran up what was until then the largest peace time deficiet in US history. Likewise, the beginning of out sourcing began in the '80s. Doesn't make him a bad President, but you can't say the man is blameless either. The idea of tax cuts and increased spending financed by debt being business as usual truly metastized under Reagan. No one after him changed this mindset and that is just history Path.
FQ13
Couldn't it be argued that the policies of Reagan & Bush 1 were the impetus and foundation that gave Clinton the surplus?
Reagan did heavy borrowing but the result was defense spending the soviet union into nonexistence.
(A policy I think we can slow now, since our defense budget is more than the rest of the world combined. Take heed of Eisenhower's warning)
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In fact, that will happen, once the US $ tanks over the next year or so. It will happen because there are those pulling the strings that want it to happen, and we will then see a unified world currency by 2014-15, if not sooner.
I think that this is why the Chinese have suggested a basket of currencies and commodities as a replacement for the dollar. That would allow them to keep their currency undervalued during a transition away from the dollar. If you are interested in China's economic policies I recommend reading mpettis.com
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That suggestion has been around for a while. Speaking objectively (national interest aside), it isn't a bad thought. Gold is out as a standard for obvious reason's, but a "commodity basket' tagged to GDP would be a bridge between fiat currency and a gold standard. I would give "real" value to currencies and greatly reduce the abilityof the state to control the money supply.As a Libertarian, I like the idea. As an American, not so much. The thing is though, that the dollar has become a gold plated turd and folks are starting to notice the smell. Any fiat currency that replaces it will suffer the same fate. Some variant of a commodity based currency migt be a better alternative than just switching to say Euros or Yuan.
FQ13
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Here's a decent video (poor sound quality) that helps explain the money system and it you can watch it in 10 minutes chunks so even the Quaker can watch it.... ;)
http://www.youtube.com/user/InfoRogue#p/u/23/EaHwg7xhueQ