The Down Range Forum
Member Section => Down Range Cafe => Topic started by: philw on December 18, 2011, 09:34:53 PM
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NORTH Korean leader Kim Jong Il has died, AFP reported, citing North Korean TV.
More to come
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/world/north-korean-leader-kim-jong-il-dies-report-says/story-e6frfkyi-1226225834414#ixzz1gwqCr8q8
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OK, That's both good news on a moral level, and scary as hell on a practical one. Lord let someone with some common sense take over.
FQ13
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OK, That's both good news on a moral level, and scary as hell on a practical one. Lord let someone with some common sense take over.
FQ13
um I doubt it
NORTH Korean dictator Kim Jong Il has died.
The veteran leader died on Saturday, December 17, a weeping announcer said on Pyongyang's state television on Monday.
He was 69.
Kim is believed to have suffered a stroke in 2008 but appeared relatively vigorous in photos and video from recent trips to China and Russia and in numerous trips around the country carefully documented by state media.
The leader, reputed to have had a taste for cigars, cognac and gourmet cuisine, was believed to have had diabetes and heart disease.
The state television announcer said Kim died of fatigue while on a train, the BBC reported.
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/world/north-korean-leader-kim-jong-il-dies-report-says/story-e6frfkyi-1226225834414#ixzz1gwrviuFh
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FQ must have been behind the door a year or so back when all News outlets were reporting that Kim had officially and publiclly designated as his successor his son Kim Jong Un
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un
Kim Jong-un (Korean: 김정은,[1] Hanja: 金正恩,[2]) also known as Kim Jong-eun or Kim Jung-eun,[3] formerly Kim Jong-woon or Kim Jung-woon[4] (born 1983 or early 1984),[5] is the third and youngest son of the late Kim Jong-il with his consort Ko Young-hee.[6]
He is a Daejang, the equivalent to an American four-star general [7] in the Korean People's Army and the presumptive head of state of North Korea in the wake of his father's death. Recent actions, symbolic and overt, taken in late 2010 by the "Dear Leader" of North Korea (officially, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea), Kim Jong-il, strongly indicated that Kim Jong-un is now the heir presumptive to the leadership of the nation. It has been claimed that he studied computer science privately in Korea.[
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What was also reported was that he wasn't particulrly popular with the military. If jr. takes over smoothly its one thing (though he could be like mini-Assad and be no different than Daddy dearest). OTOH, the DPRK army might not fall neatly into line, and then things get messy.
FQ13
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Watch for plane crashes and Heart attacks and other "tragic incidents" among high ranking members of the party and military.
Should be a rash of them within the next 6 months while Jr consolidates power.
Like the kid told BHO, It's no accident and no great loss.
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And just like that the world is another wanker short.
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No one will miss that dog eating gnat. Now the only question that remains is which inbred crackpot will take over next?
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Here is a great article on NK by Christopher Hitchens written after a visit there. He posits that we are fundamentally misunderstanding the regime. Its not really a communist regime any longer, so much as it is a hyper nationalist military state obsessed with purity and paranoid about contacts with the outside. If he's right it changes the game, we're dealing with Hitler not Stalin (and no they aren't the same). A communist is a universalist, he wants to convert you. A racist nationalist on the other hand just wants you to die. Anyway, its a neat piece from Slate and worth a read.
FQ13
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/fighting_words/2010/02/a_nation_of_racist_dwarfs.single.html?onswipe_redirect=no
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There are a couple of fairly serious concerns here, but who is getting the job isn't one of them. Kim Jung Un has the job. He was designated by Dear Leader to be the Dear Successor.
The concern is figuring our where the boy's head may be. And that is already concerning China.
The Chi-com leaders professed to be "distressed" over Jong Il's death. That can be read as "worried," "concerned," or "scared crap-less."
North Korea has been under some level of control by the Chi-coms from the start. This may throw a monkey wrench into that cooperative situation. The Kid just may have some level of self-will that will not sit well with the Chi-com leadership.
On the other hand, Dear Successor just may be bright enough to see what has been happening to despots around the world, and decide his personal hide may be worth saving. I'm not saying this is likely, just possible.
The next few days and weeks should provide great insight.
If he invades South Korea, that's one thing. If he appeals for talks with the US, that's something else.
Keep watching closely. Something will happen and it will happen very soon, in my opinion. Personally, given the history of this particular rat-hole of a country, I don't expect much good.
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China may have had more influence than any one else, but that isn't much KJI did as he pleased regardless of what ANYONE wanted.
KJU's screwed. He can't loosen his grip on power because as Gorbachov found out, reforms take on a life of their own .
Not to mention that reactionary elements in the military and party would resist.
He will probably do something with S Korea , or Japan, another artillery barrage or ship sinking to prove to the home front that he's a hard ass.
Heart attacks, plane crashes, and other "unfortunate events"for his serious opponents will bring everyone else in line
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Great article by Hitchens, who passed away last week. More folks should give him a read.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/christopher-hitchens-remembering-an-icon-and-frequent-contributor/2011/12/19/gIQAXSL54O_story.html
Like previously posted. The short term will be one to watch. The military is literally the only other real "influence" in the country...(as the starving, unarmed, destitute citizenry) is the victim to both Supreme Leader, and military jack booted thugs, that are reminders of the Nazi SS rounding up insurgents, and "troublemakers"....
But factions of the military elite, (the true numbers are unknown),...may want a "kinder gentler" NK, to bring their Godforsaken country out of perpetual dependance on other countries for basic items,...like food and energy.
Whether they can influence a 20 something "Supreme Leader"....to change course, or end up getting carpet bombed will be also coming up in the coming year...
....and than there is the BHO foreign policy....(I get the warm and fuzzies just thinking about it).
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Just arrange an accidental discharge at the base of his skull, no problem.
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Here's what their saying at the Heritage Network
http://blog.heritage.org/2011/12/19/morning-bell-the-death-of-kim-jong-il/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Morning%2BBell
North Korea’s official media announced that Kim Jong-il, the country’s long-time leader, died on Saturday of “physical and mental overwork.” Although Kim had several health problems, particularly after a stroke in August 2008, he had appeared vibrant in recent meetings. As such, the surprise development raises concerns about its impact on Pyongyang’s ongoing leadership transition, regime stability, and North Korean security and foreign policies.
North Korean provocative behavior or military action is unlikely in the near-term. However, Seoul and Washington will be wary that Kim Jong-un, third son of Kim Jong-il and the next leader of North Korea, may feel it necessary in the future to precipitate a crisis to prove his mettle to other senior leaders or deflect attention from the regime’s failings. South Korea announced on Sunday that it had increased the alert of its military and would convene an emergency meeting of its national security council.
Kim’s death eclipses rumors earlier Sunday that North Korea and the United States had made sufficient diplomatic progress to potentially enable a resumption of nuclear negotiations through the six-party talks. It is likely that such negotiations would be postponed as North Korea goes through a mourning period, formalized succession process, and possible retrenchment of its foreign policies.
Succession on Track, but Uncertainties Remain. Following Kim Jong-il’s 2008 stroke, Pyongyang implemented a leadership succession plan to anoint Jong-un as the next leader. He was made a four-star general, despite having never served in the military, and given senior party and military leadership positions. The succession seems to be well underway, but during the past year, several senior officials were removed from office, reportedly as a purge of those resistant to a second North Korean dynastic succession.
Kim’s early death removes a key stability factor for the succession process. Had Kim remained alive longer, it would have given Jong-un greater opportunity to develop his own independent power base of leadership elites loyal to him personally. The North Korean elite has a vested interest in maintaining the system and will assess Jong-un’s ability to protect its interests. The elite will balance a shared sense of external threat against fear of domestic instability from an inexperienced leader. The senior government leadership may assess Jong-un’s shortcomings as sufficient justification for contesting his succession. Elite resistance to Jong-un’s rule could manifest itself in outright opposition or in usurping his power and leaving him a mere figurehead.
North Korea’s Untested New Leader. Kim Jong-un, 28, is a pale reflection of his father and grandfather. He has little experience or accomplishments and only recently announced to senior official positions, and he has not had the decades of grooming and securing of a power base that Jong-il enjoyed before assuming control from his own father, Kim Il-sung. Il-sung had delegated authority for North Korea’s security services and nuclear weapons programs to Jong-il years before he died. During the last years of his father’s life, Jong-il was, for all intents and purposes, the one running the country.
Some experts assess that, since Kim Jong-un spent several years in Switzerland, he may be more amenable to implementing economic and political reform as well as pursuing a less provocative foreign policy. However, Jong-un is likely to continue the same policies as his father and grandfather.
But because he lacks his father’s cult of personality, he will be more reliant on support from senior party and military leaders who are overwhelmingly nationalist and resistant to change. Jong-un will have to base his legitimacy on maintaining the legacy of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il by continuing their nationalist and military-based policies. The new leader will have to reassure the senior leadership that his policies do not pose a risk to regime stability and, by extension, their livelihoods and lives.
Indeed, Jong-un may pursue a policy that is even more hard-line than his father’s. In addition to potentially instigating a crisis in order to generate a “rally around the flag” effect, propaganda would highlight the supposed need for increased vigilance against attempts by outside powers to take advantage of North Korea’s weakness during a leadership transition.
If Jong-un were to pursue such a policy, there would be North Korean announcements to heighten the country’s defenses against the U.S. and South Korea and increase rather than abandon Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons arsenal. Such a tumultuous time, the government would argue, would negate any potential for implementing any economic or political reform that could risk regime instability.
Diplomatic Breakthrough on Hold? Prior to Kim’s death, media reports suggested that the United States and North Korea had made preliminary agreements that opened the door to resumption of multilateral nuclear negotiations. Pyongyang had reportedly acquiesced to U.S. and South Korean preconditions by agreeing to freeze its uranium enrichment program, allow a return of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to the Yongbyon nuclear reactor, and place a moratorium on further nuclear and long-range missile tests. In return, it was rumored, the United States would pledge to provide 240,000 tons of food aid in monthly tranches of 20,000 tons.
If the rumors are true, it reflects a tactical diplomatic breakthrough, though one that simply returns the weary boxers back to the ring for what portends to be difficult and contentious negotiations. Given Pyongyang’s cheating on previous accords, Washington and its allies would need to insist on more carefully crafted agreements than previously vaguely written joint statements. Difficulties in monitoring easily hidden uranium facilities would necessitate far more vigorous and intrusive verification measures than were being contemplated when the six-party talks collapsed in 2008.
However, the death of Kim Jong-il would presumably delay a resumption of such negotiations as the new North Korean leadership assesses to what degree it is willing to open up to the outside world. Although the demise of Kim Jong-il provides an opportunity for change on the Korean Peninsula, it is a transition fraught with uncertainty, nervousness, and potential danger.
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Good article, but if Jong-Un,....starts to rock the boat too much,.....China may put the "reminder" to his young punk ass....
As the old adage goes, even a million man army has to eat.....
Cut off the food and resources for energy....not the humanitarian crap from the UN for the civilians, that got nothing anyway because the military scoffed it up...
But really cut them off....They would be Ethiopian refugees, with a starving military, and a black market lawlessness for basic goods.
If they become desparate, and do something really stupid, China, would deal with them as a beaten red-headed step child.....
They would have no choice.....It's an economic goal,....China holds the cards...and won't put up with a penny-anny wannabe....
They would starve in two months....
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Good riddance to him. I am sure the next North Korean anti-christ will also be absolutely worthless. Did you see the videos on CNN or any other news media? It is easy to cry for the cameras with a AK-47 pointed right at you.
I completey agree with Tombogan about accidents occurring with their high ranking officials who do not listen to Jong Jr. Going to be a bloodbath in the near future.
Now can they release the new "Red Dawn" movie?