The Down Range Forum
Member Section => Down Range Cafe => Topic started by: billt on August 20, 2014, 06:25:11 PM
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With an ammo glut soon to follow? I'm thinking that is a very good possibility. I'm seeing a lot of guns available that were "allocated" in the past. For example Colt and Springfield Armory 1911's are everywhere, and in good numbers. Even some of the more hard to find models. Davidson's is showing them in great abundance. The same with Springfield M1-A rifles. All the models are available in good numbers as well. Browning Buck Mark pistols are in good supply in most every shop I've been in recently.
Ammo is really coming back around here. Even .22 LR prices and availability is coming back. 9 MM and .45 ACP is sagging the shelves at my local Cabela's. All at good prices which appear to be steadily dropping. Magazines are everywhere as well. Glock, AR-15, AR-10, AK, all Hi-Caps in most every model are no longer a witch hunt to find.
About the only thing that is still scarce, but is showing improvement in availability is powder. Also some brass is still hard to come by. I'm thinking by the time the weather cools off this Fall, we should be getting back to a real sense of normal. It's about time. What's it been, close to 3 years now? People are either caught up, or else out of money. Look for some really good buys next spring.
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I don't see a gun glut coming, but I do fear a major business shift. Over recent years we have seen gun companies gobbled up by investment firms or consolidated with other gun companies.
The days of common sense business are gone, and it is all about return on investment. In the past money was made by providing a good or service for the long haul. Today it is all about ROI in the short term. We used to look at the year, but focus on the decade. Today businesses are changed or closed over a poor mid quarter forecast report.
A generation or two ago these gun companies would have been paying off debt, updating facilities and equipment, rewarding loyal employees, celebrating with customers, and putting money in savings for the coming lean years. Today, every thing has been divided up between investors, and the cupboard will be bare when they go looking for reserves the first slim quarter.
Have you read Sheriff Wilson's open letter to Colt?
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I don't see a gun glut coming, but I do fear a major business shift. Over recent years we have seen gun companies gobbled up by investment firms or consolidated with other gun companies.
The days of common sense business are gone, and it is all about return on investment. In the past money was made by providing a good or service for the long haul. Today it is all about ROI in the short term. We used to look at the year, but focus on the decade. Today businesses are changed or closed over a poor mid quarter forecast report.
A generation or two ago these gun companies would have been paying off debt, updating facilities and equipment, rewarding loyal employees, celebrating with customers, and putting money in savings for the coming lean years. Today, every thing has been divided up between investors, and the cupboard will be bare when they go looking for reserves the first slim quarter.
Have you read Sheriff Wilson's open letter to Colt?
Nope, got a link?
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http://sheriffjimwilson.com/2014/08/18/open-letter-to-the-board-of-directors-at-colt-firearms/ (http://sheriffjimwilson.com/2014/08/18/open-letter-to-the-board-of-directors-at-colt-firearms/)
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Thx
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Colt's story is nothing new. They've been on the verge of bankruptcy for literally decades. If it weren't for their government contracts, Colt would have gone belly up years ago. They can't make money on a bet. And they are not alone. Many firearms companies cannot turn a steady profit. Look at High Standard, Ithaca Gun, and more recently Remington Arms.
All made and sold great guns. They just can't seem to turn a steady buck doing it. Even Smith & Wesson was on the verge of financial collapse when it was owned by Tompkins PLC, and headed up by Ed Shultz. It took Safe-T-Hammer's near bargain purchase of it to turn it around into profitability once again.
It's not easy to make money in the gun business. Success stories like Ruger and Bushmaster are few and far between.
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I DO see a gun glut coming. The AR market is so soft now it's unreal compared to what was around a year ago.
CCW size guns are going to reach saturation levels pretty soon IMHO. Ammo is showing up on shelves.
(billt wasn't kidding about Cabela's)
Powder can't be too far behind....I hope. (not that I really need any, I hoarded!)
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Part of the problem is that guns generally are one of the best crafted items in the US. They last forever so you only need one of each.
Let's hope they don't get the idea to go the way of Detroit and start making them so they wear out in 5 years.
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... They last forever so you only need one of each.
I'm Sorry? WHAT? Blasphemer!
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Another thing to remember is this last shortage changed peoples buying habits. Shooters and reloaders who used to buy 1 pound of powder, started buying 8 pound containers. Guys who would buy a brick of .22's started buying 5,000 round cases of it before it all disappeared. Primers were purchased, (hoarded), in much the same way. They're becoming available again.
When the manufacturers finally get caught up, shooters are going to be shooting off of much larger stockpiles than they have ever been. If many of them stockpiled at all. It's also much the same with Hi-Cap magazines. When this stuff starts enjoying good availability once again, it's going to take really dirt cheap prices to get these same people to start buying once again.
They aren't going to be afraid anymore with Hussein on his way out, and they'll have so much stockpiled they just won't see a need to run out and buy anymore. Don't forget, we've lived in this panic for over 2 straight years now. And it started after the 2008 shortage finally started to come to an end. It's almost hard to think back to a time when something in this sport wasn't in short supply.
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I don't know about any of you but I for one won't complain about an ammo glut. The cheaper it is the more I'll buy and use. ;D
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Part of the problem is that guns generally are one of the best crafted items in the US. They last forever so you only need one of each.
Let's hope they don't get the idea to go the way of Detroit and start making them so they wear out in 5 years.
Yeah, what Jay said. Durability, which is required for liability at the least, insures fewer lifetime purchases.
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Colt's story is nothing new. They've been on the verge of bankruptcy for literally decades. If it weren't for their government contracts, Colt would have gone belly up years ago. They can't make money on a bet. And they are not alone. Many firearms companies cannot turn a steady profit. Look at High Standard, Ithaca Gun, and more recently Remington Arms.
All made and sold great guns. They just can't seem to turn a steady buck doing it. Even Smith & Wesson was on the verge of financial collapse when it was owned by Tompkins PLC, and headed up by Ed Shultz. It took Safe-T-Hammer's near bargain purchase of it to turn it around into profitability once again.
It's not easy to make money in the gun business. Success stories like Ruger and Bushmaster are few and far between.
Don't base anything financial on Colt, their management has been a clusterf*ck since Sam was selling his first models in 1836.
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One thing to keep in mind is that the list of publicly-held gun companies is quite short (Ruger, S&W and a few more that have slipped my mind), so the usual insanity that drives quarterly earnings statements aren't there for most gun companies.
As for our shop, in talking with people, yeah, things are quieter now than there were for most of 2012 and 2013 before I got here. Will there be an adjustment and a slow period? Sure, we're in it now. But a lot of guns were sold before the greatest gun salesman in American history (Barack Obama) came into office, and a lot will be sold after he leaves.
We've turned a corner in "Gun Culture", and I think the same ideals of self-reliance, freedom and independence that so typify gun culture are spreading through the american parts of America. New York, California, New Jersey are trying to succeed by following the same big-government playbook that got them into this mess (what was the definition of insanity again?...) but the people themselves are seeing just how much control they have and can have over their lives. We're not just armed America anymore, we're empowered America.
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As events such as the riots in Mo continue to occur guns will enjoy periodic bursts over average sales numbers.
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Speaking of plenty with declining prices, I just got a flyer from Cabela's, and they've got PMC 115 gr. FMJ 9 MM for just $12.47 a box....No limit. Other calibers on sale as well.
http://www.cabelas.com/product/PMC-Bronze-Handgun-Ammunition/728483.uts?Ntk=AllProducts&searchPath=%2Fcatalog%2Fsearch.cmd%3Fform_state%3DsearchForm%26N%3D0%26fsch%3Dtrue%26Ntk%3DAllProducts%26Ntt%3D9%2BMM%2Bammo%26WTz_l%3DHeader%253BSearch-All%2BProducts%26x%3D16%26y%3D6&Ntt=9+MM+ammo&WTz_l=Header%3BSearch-All+Products
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I just got an E-Mail from J&G Sales. They've got S&B 9 MM for just $209.90 for a 1,000 round case. That's only $10.50 @ box of 50. I don't know what they get for shipping. Ammo is definitely coming down fast. And they said this is a, "inventory reduction sale". They're overstocked with the stuff.
http://www.jgsales.com/9mm-s-b-115gr-fmj-ammo,-1000rd-case.-p-487.html
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I'm glad to see some return to what many refer to as near normal stock and pricing. I hope it continues to move in a good direction.
**Watch out for another "Sandy Hook Crisis" to fan the flames of public panic buying.
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I've been waiting for Midway to get some Ruger Mark II mags in. Ruger says they have some in stock but Midway is about $9 cheaper. I think Brownells were a dollar more than Midway but they were out of stock too and now it looks like they quit listing them altogether. Sooner or later Ruger has to catch up and have extra stock to distribute. I just hope it happens soon.
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I'm not getting why Ruger .22 pistol mags are in short supply? It's not like they're Hi-Cap or anything. (10 round). And with the current price and lack of availability of .22 ammo, you would think most of them would be staying in the case anyway.
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Bilt is on to something with the gun glut I think. S&W is saying the quarter they are in now will be hit the most and wit their modern sporting rifles. Yep, it's a gonna be a good time to buy an AR right now.
http://ir.smith-wesson.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=90977&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1961164&highlight= (http://ir.smith-wesson.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=90977&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1961164&highlight=)
Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2015 Financial Results
SPRINGFIELD, Mass., Aug. 26, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (NASDAQ Global Select: SWHC), a leader in firearm manufacturing and design, today announced its financial results for the fiscal 2015 first quarter ended July 31, 2014.
First Quarter Fiscal 2015 Financial Highlights
•Net sales for the first quarter were $131.9 million, a decrease of $39.2 million from the first quarter last year, primarily due to lower sales of long guns, including modern sporting rifles, which drove 87% of the first quarter decline. As expected, sales of long guns, including modern sporting rifles, were negatively impacted by lower consumer demand. Handgun sales showed continued consumer demand for the company's small concealed carry polymer pistols and revolvers, although those sales were more than offset by lower sales of large frame polymer pistols.
•Gross profit for the first quarter was $49.1 million, or 37.2% of net sales, compared with gross profit of $72.8 million, or 42.6% of net sales, for the comparable quarter last year. While gross profit margin was favorably impacted by the company's acquisition of the assets of its principal injection molding supplier in May, total gross profit declined as a result of reduced sales volumes of modern sporting rifles and related decreases in fixed-cost absorption, combined with three fewer production days versus the first quarter last year.
•Operating expenses for the first quarter were $23.3 million, or 17.7% of net sales, compared with operating expenses of $24.8 million, or 14.5% of net sales, for the first quarter of 2014.
•Operating income for the first quarter was $25.8 million, or 19.5% of net sales, compared with operating income of $48.0 million, or 28.1% of net sales, for the first quarter of 2014.
•Income from continuing operations for the first quarter was $14.6 million, or $0.26 per diluted share, compared with income from continuing operations of $26.5 million, or $0.40 per diluted share, for the first quarter of 2014.
•Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDAS from continuing operations for the first quarter was $33.6 million, compared with $55.2 million for the first quarter last year.
•Operating cash generated for the first quarter was $10.8 million. Internal capital spending totaled $14.6 million, and the company used an additional $24.1 million of cash to acquire the assets of its principal injection molding supplier.
•Cash and cash equivalents as of July 31, 2014 were $83.5 million, up from $68.9 million at April 30, 2014.
Jeffrey D. Buchanan, Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, stated, "We continued to add flexibility to our balance sheet in the first quarter by raising $75.0 million in proceeds through the issuance of our new 5.000% Senior Notes due 2018. We also leveraged our strong cash position to generate value for our stockholders by completing all share repurchases authorized by our Board of Directors under our share repurchase program. During the quarter, we repurchased $30.0 million of our common stock. Since December 2012, we have repurchased a total of 14.4 million shares of our common stock for $165.0 million, representing a total reduction in shares outstanding of 21.7%."
James Debney, Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation President and Chief Executive Officer, stated, "Our results for the first quarter met our expectations and reflected continued execution on our strategy. We launched our new M&P®22 Compact, a tactical rimfire pistol that delivers the popular features of our M&P centerfire pistol in a smaller scale version. We also joined forces with Crimson Trace® to introduce enhanced, integrated laser sighting systems for our popular line of M&P BODYGUARD® handguns. Operationally, we completed the acquisition of the assets of our principal injection molding supplier, an action that strengthened our business and contributed favorably to gross margin and net income in the quarter."
Debney continued, "We believe that the current environment reflects high inventories industry-wide resulting from channel replenishment that occurred following an earlier surge in consumer buying. That environment, combined with typical seasonality that slows consumer buying activity during the summer, is causing us to lower our financial outlook for fiscal 2015. We expect that these conditions will have the largest impact on our second fiscal quarter, especially on sales of our modern sporting rifles, and that we will return to a more normalized environment in the second half of our current fiscal year. We believe that our operational and financial strength and flexibility will benefit us in the short term, and we remain focused on our strategy to take handgun market share. We expect the industry will continue to deliver growth over the long term."
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Went shooting this morning and M&P prices were marked down about $40 off the regular selling price.
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This is the first time this has happened to me at Cabela's EVER. I went in and bought some ammo, and had a 10% off coupon with me. After I rang out the cashier handed me my receipt.....Along with a $25.00 Off on my next purchase of $100.00 or more.
That's at least another 25% off. I'll go there next week and use it. There wasn't hardly anyone in the place when I was there around 10:00 AM. Racks were full of guns and shelves were chock full of ammunition. All at good prices. I don't think there is any question gun and ammo buying has tapered off....Way off in recent months.
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NICS checks were down 14%.