The Down Range Forum
Member Section => Down Range Cafe => Topic started by: billt on December 24, 2015, 08:52:44 AM
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I'm thinking yes. I really don't think Iowa matters in the least. How can it when Rick Santorum won it in 2012, and a couple months later he was taking out the trash? He's been sucking hind tit ever since. If you look back when Trump started, back in July when he was polling 3% to 5%, every political "expert" said he would be washed up in a month or two. Here he is, leading by a margin larger than all the other candidates percentage points combined.
Every time he makes a bombastic remark, again the "experts" all predicted his demise. Yet the day after he said he would kick all the Muslims out, he went up 9% in South Carolina alone. I think unprecedented anger will put him in. People today are being forced into political correctness. They have to be careful what they say. Especially around the water cooler at work. Many could be indirectly fired over political comments. Free speech seems to exist today, only when certain people want it to.
People HATE that. In the voting booth they don't have to answer to anyone. They can pull the curtain behind them, and punch Trump's card, and walk out without anyone being the wiser. People are fed up with Muslims, illegal immigration, porous borders, "black lives matter", ISIS, and all the rest. Trump is their best way to vent their anger. And no political poll can measure the anger contained in today's white majority. People are going to be voting who have not voted in the last 3 or more elections. A few blacks, women, and Mexicans can't make up for it. And the more these same "experts" predict that he can't beat Hillary in the general election, the more I believe he can. At least that's the way I see it.
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There are three things people lie about when polled or questioned. Sex, diet and candidates. Pollsters, believe Trump support is actually a lot high than the polls because people don't want to admit that's who they support.
I think there's a good chance he will win, because people are fed up with business as usual. Will he be a good president? He might surprise everybody. Or he could be a total embarrassment. Either way it will shake up the next two election cycles. I think we would see movement towards term limits.
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I think he actually has a good chance.
BHO got elected on the novelty of his skin color, laying aside all common sense and real experience.
What Trump has is the novelty of his personality...... meaning he is his own man, not answering to party politics, at least for now..... and many like that he is 'different' than the others and speaks his own mind.
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Trump, or any president, making blunders while honestly working to move this country back onto it's intended course, will be immensely more beneficial than any president working perfectly to move it from the course our founders defined.
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Trump, or any president, making blunders while honestly working to move this country back onto it's intended course, will be immensely more beneficial than any president working perfectly to move it from the course our founders defined.
Well said!
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If Trump runs as an independent I don't think he'll win but would if he runs Republican. Some people will never vote independent, thinking a Democrat or Republican will always win. If he runs against Hillary he has a good chance but so does she. Some people think it's time we had a woman president just like they thought it was time we had a black president. They'll vote for her just because she's a woman.
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If Trump runs as an independent I don't think he'll win but would if he runs Republican. Some people will never vote independent, thinking a Democrat or Republican will always win.
What will kill him if he runs as an Independent is the lack of Electoral Votes, not popular vote. Delegates will never commit to an Independent candidate. The 2 party system is set up that way. Until they get rid of the Electro College, you can forget about any third party candidate ever winning. Remember, Ross Perot was the best shot a third party candidate ever had in recent times, and he did not receive a single Electro Vote.
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The Electoral College was established, as I recall...and TomB or someone will correct me if I am mistaken, to protect against idiot voters electing a treacherous or otherwise disastrous candidate.
Well, based on it's track record, I'd say we haven't gotten our money's worth from it..and I don't think it can be salvaged.
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If Trump is elected, will he be an embarrassment?
IMHO, he couldn't be as big an embarrassment as the ISIS-loving jackwagon who currently inhabits 1400 Pennsylvania Avenue.
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The Electoral College was established, as I recall...and TomB or someone will correct me if I am mistaken, to protect against idiot voters electing a treacherous or otherwise disastrous candidate.
Well, based on it's track record, I'd say we haven't gotten our money's worth from it..and I don't think it can be salvaged.
Actually that was only one reason. The other was to give the smaller states (population wise) a bit more influence. A popular election of presidents would result in these states being even more ignored in favor of the candidates working hard to turn out even more people in the larger states where they have an advantage.
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Actually that was only one reason. The other was to give the smaller states (population wise) a bit more influence. A popular election of presidents would result in these states being even more ignored in favor of the candidates working hard to turn out even more people in the larger states where they have an advantage.
Thanks...I will note that in my "memories" Take care
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Too much big money in politics and political patronage for Trump to win. Too much big money already invested to have someone like him...someone who can't be bought or otherwise influenced...win!
Think about it!
JMHOFWIW That and a dollar will get you a small cup of coffee!
Richard
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Too much big money in politics and political patronage for Trump to win. Richard
Jeb Bush has reportedly spent over $100,000,000.00 (read $100 MILLION) thus far. Last I heard he's currently polling 3%. "Big Money" doesn't seem to be helping him anymore than his last name is. Money for the candidates has no effect on calming the anger of the voters.
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It's about time that people get mad about politics as usual and do something about it.
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billt, sorry, but the voters don't elect the president. The Electorial College does. Watch, big money will play a part in the election.
Richard
PS: 100 Million is chump change to the big money interests.
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Jeb Bush has reportedly spent over $100,000,000.00 (read $100 MILLION) thus far. Last I heard he's currently polling 3%. "Big Money" doesn't seem to be helping him anymore than his last name is. Money for the candidates has no effect on calming the anger of the voters.
If that's true, than I suspect that it reflects ad buys that have not aired yet, thus we cannot gauge the effect yet. Let's not forget that Trump is the definition of big money. We should never forget that just because he is spending it to get himself elected.
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billt, sorry, but the voters don't elect the president. The Electoral College does. Watch, big money will play a part in the election.
Richard
PS: 100 Million is chump change to the big money interests.
Yet,but so far no member of the Electoral College has ever violated their pledge and voted for someone other than the candidate he or she was pledged to vote for. What would happen if the election was thrown by rouge members of the Electoral College is anyone's guess - but I doubt it would be good. An interesting situation would be where the winner of the election does before the electoral college meets - but other than that, I highly doubt that the electors will ever vote for anyone they are not pledged to.
Thus the actual effect of the system is to give small population states slightly greater power in deciding the presidential election.
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Let's not forget that Trump is the definition of big money. We should never forget that just because he is spending it to get himself elected.
Trump has no super PAC, and he himself is spending nowhere near what the Republican establishment candidates like Bush are currently spending. (This is the real reason why Bush is so angry at Trump). I suspect a lot of them will be folding up their tents after the new year. Especially the ones like Bush who continue to drop into, and remain in the single digits.
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While you're ranting about the Electoral collage remember that "the voters" were never intended to elect the president, or Senators.
Read the constitution, the president is selected by the designated "Electors" , while Senators are supposed to be elected by state legislatures.
What that would accomplish is to make it impossible for one party tocontroll the gov't by pandering to special interests.
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As far as the Electro College, and Presidential elections go, Obama is the 44th President. But there have been 56 elections. Remember that many Presidents have been re-elected, and Gerald Ford was never elected, and FDR served 4 terms, etc. So the numbers don't match up.
All elections were decided by the Electoral College. Only four times in U.S. history, the Electoral College system resulted in election of a candidate for President who had received fewer popular votes nationwide than another candidate. And that was a very slight mismatch overall.
Also, the elections of 1800 and 1824 were tied in the Electoral College, so the House of Representatives made the final decision. But overall, it's a pretty fair bet that the popular vote will decide the Presidency. Trump included. (Assuming he is the nominee). At least the odds are in his favor.
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I don't care who wins (outside my circle of influence), but I do want to see a "debate" between Trump, Bernie, and McAfee. That has enough crazy to make money as a ppv. ;D
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.....I do want to see a "debate" between Trump, Bernie, and McAfee.
Forget those two. I want to see him shred Hillary into little pieces. He has the ability, AND the guts to have her run off the stage crying like a 4 year old girl who just had her doll taken away.
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Forget those two. I want to see him shred Hillary into little pieces. He has the ability, AND the guts to have her run off the stage crying like a 4 year old girl who just had her doll taken away.
That would be more like political gladiator games. I was looking for more of a WWE crazy fest.