The Down Range Forum
Member Section => Politics & RKBA => Topic started by: ericire12 on September 09, 2008, 01:57:12 PM
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September 9, 2008
McCain Maintains 5-Point Lead
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110143/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Maintains-5Point-Lead.aspx
http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx
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I wonder just how much these "polls" are really worth?
I never have put to much stock in them.. but maybe they are more accurate than we know..
Dont know........... ???
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October 1, 2008
Obama 4 Point Lead
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110881/Gallup-Daily-Obama-48-McCain-44.aspx
(http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/s9nxigvtm0ca1xgiubwu4q.gif)
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Come Wednesday morning, November 5th we'll have the only poll numbers that really matter.
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How will we know on the 5th? Isn't that the day the democrats vote?
(http://www.clicksmilies.com/s1106/teufel/devil-smiley-029.gif)
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How will we know on the 5th? Isn't that the day the democrats vote?
No, democrats, living and deceased, vote each and every day until the 5th. Thats the scheduled date for filing law suits in states they weren't able to carry. :(
Swoop
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I'm seriously thinking people who have no intention of voting for Obama are telling the pollsters they are voting for him. Hell, I know if I get called I'll tell them that. Makes it more likely even less dems than usual come out to vote. ;)
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I am getting ready to have a yard sale..and I was listening to the radio show Sean Hannity all afternoon. There was a caller that said her 16 yr old ( who doesn't look 16) was approached when he was in the mall, by the College Democrats Association. They ask him if he was registered to vote. He said No. They ask how old he was. he told them, and they told him that he could register and vote. They gave him all the paperwork *right then and there* he filled it all out and went home to tell his mom. She said that he couldn't vote. It was "illegal" because he wasn't 18. He argued with her that they did all the paperwork and they informed him if he went to the polls he was able to and could vote. What is going on here?
Hannity's crews were on the streets in PA and the major swing states and were doing interviews with people ( bums and wino's etc) and they said that a group of people for Obama had helped them do their paperwork to register to vote and *through the slurring and bad language and slang talk* sad that they were going to go out and vote and were also told that "someone" would be coming through again with absentee ballots in case they couldn't make it to the polls on that day!
Makes me sick..but it just is a small taste of the underhanded way things are done with the Liberals ..Media and this campaign.
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I am getting ready to have a yard sale..and I was listening to the radio show Sean Hannity all afternoon. There was a caller that said her 16 yr old ( who doesn't look 16) was approached when he was in the mall, by the College Democrats Association. They ask him if he was registered to vote. He said No. They ask how old he was. he told them, and they told him that he could register and vote. They gave him all the paperwork *right then and there* he filled it all out and went home to tell his mom. She said that he couldn't vote. It was "illegal" because he wasn't 18. He argued with her that they did all the paperwork and they informed him if he went to the polls he was able to and could vote. What is going on here?
Hannity's crews were on the streets in PA and the major swing states and were doing interviews with people ( bums and wino's etc) and they said that a group of people for Obama had helped them do their paperwork to register to vote and *through the slurring and bad language and slang talk* sad that they were going to go out and vote and were also told that "someone" would be coming through again with absentee ballots in case they couldn't make it to the polls on that day!
Makes me sick..but it just is a small taste of the underhanded way things are done with the Liberals ..Media and this campaign.
ACORN?
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I am getting ready to have a yard sale..and I was listening to the radio show Sean Hannity all afternoon. There was a caller that said her 16 yr old ( who doesn't look 16) was approached when he was in the mall, by the College Democrats Association. They ask him if he was registered to vote. He said No. They ask how old he was. he told them, and they told him that he could register and vote. They gave him all the paperwork *right then and there* he filled it all out and went home to tell his mom. She said that he couldn't vote. It was "illegal" because he wasn't 18. He argued with her that they did all the paperwork and they informed him if he went to the polls he was able to and could vote. What is going on here?
Hannity's crews were on the streets in PA and the major swing states and were doing interviews with people ( bums and wino's etc) and they said that a group of people for Obama had helped them do their paperwork to register to vote and *through the slurring and bad language and slang talk* sad that they were going to go out and vote and were also told that "someone" would be coming through again with absentee ballots in case they couldn't make it to the polls on that day!
Makes me sick..but it just is a small taste of the underhanded way things are done with the Liberals ..Media and this campaign.
I registered when I was sixteen. I was not able to vote until I turned 18, however. Vote fraud is the domain of the Democrat. Ask Nixon in '60. He had more class and a better case that Algore. But I digress. Every two to four years we hear about "rock the vote", "vote or die", ad nauseum. These folks that are conscripted into the Democrat voting bloc are not as reliable as those who actually registered on their own accord. There will be fraud, but in a nation where less than 1/2 actually vote what is the real problem?
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This poll doesn't mean much because it was taken of "registered voters". The poll that is a better indicator is the one that only uses "likely voters". A lot of people are "registered" but fewer vote.
I'm dead set against all these new fangled, easy-to-use voting procedures. I think there's something to be said to showing up at YOUR precinct with YOUR friends and neighbors, and casting YOUR ballot. I think it needs to be a social occasion and one at which you see and are seen. There should be a place where you can hang around and watch people come and go and socialize with everyone.
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There will be fraud, but in a nation where less than 1/2 actually vote what is the real problem?
Liberals?
The American Republic will endure until the day Congress liberals discovers that it they can bribe the public with the public's money.
- de Toucqueville, with editorial help from Snarker
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October 5, 2008
Obama 8 point lead
(http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/-eclws-hpee3neeb7wvbpw.gif)
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October 7, 2008
Obama 9 point lead
(http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/mhq-l9ac2kmdpfxv9pqzdg.gif)
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111004/Gallup-Daily-9Point-Obama-Lead-Ties-Campaign-High.aspx
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October 8, 2008
Obama 11 point lead
(http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/vqsv3i7fzu-nk_eq2zel9g.gif)
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Released: October 08, 2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll:
Obama 47%, McCain 45%
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1575
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Released: October 08, 2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll:
Obama 47%, McCain 45%
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1575
That is great to see! I think this whole thing is going to come down to a few swing states (2 maybe 3)..... Ohio being the most important one.
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Just keep in mind that the people who conduct the Gallup polling are in the tank for Obama. So if you can believe the nut jobs who still think that the constitution is out of date and the "Saviour" will change it then you can believe their polling data. I might add that the majority of these polls are not based on balanced data but rather have, generally, a 70-30 (Dem to Rep) lean.
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Gallup Daily: Obama-McCain Gap NarrowsObama leads, 50% to 43%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111064/Gallup-Daily-ObamaMcCain-Gap-Narrows.aspx
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 48%, McCain 44%
Obama's lead declines
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1584
RASMUSSEN MONDAY: OBAMA 50%, MCCAIN 45%... DEVELOPING...
http://www.drudgereport.com/
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I saw yesterday that McCain is up by 2% points in Ohio among likely voters...... Thats good news..... for the past 40 yrs, as Ohio goes, so goes the rest of the nation.
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Yeah, pretty amazing. All the Gallup polls up until today were of registered voters, not those most likely to vote.
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GALLUP's 'traditional' likely voter model shows Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain on Thursday, 49% to 47%, this is within poll's margin of error...
http://www.drudgereport.com/
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GALLUP's 'traditional' likely voter model shows Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain on Thursday, 49% to 47%, this is within poll's margin of error...
http://www.drudgereport.com/
Its a horse race!
I was also listening to talk radio yesterday and heard a surprising fact. All of the national polls going back about 30+ years have consistently had a 10% bias towards the Dems - even right up until the night before the election. It was fascinating to hear how consistent it was for each and every presidential election.
If this holds true this year (and there is really no reason to think it wont), Obama would need to be up by 15 points in the polls to have a comfortable win on election day. If he is only up by 10 points, then anyone can win. If he is only up by 5 points, McCain will have a convincing 5% points win. Its also important to note that in Ohio it is a dead heat...... and we all know that as Ohio goes, so goes the rest of the nation.
Yep. Its on!
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Based on media bias and their consistently being wrong in this election cycle I automaticly add 10 15% to what ever the media says. As I posted on another thread, according to the media polls our choice was supposed to be Hilly or Rudy.
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Surveys Split on Who Has Lead in Presidential Race
Differences in Predicting Outcome Result From How Pollsters Gauge Voter Turnout and Weight Party AffiliationBy NICK TIMIRAOSArticle
A spate of widely publicized newspaper and network polls over the past week have shown Barack Obama opening a big lead over John McCain. But other surveys tell a somewhat different story, suggesting the presidential race is still close, and the Republican has even gained ground in recent days.
The reason for the divergence: Pollsters are facing new challenges this year, trying to gauge whether the electorate is changing, and how much.
Surveys giving Sen. Obama a large and growing lead tend to assume that a growing proportion of voters are Democrats, and a shrinking percentage Republicans. They also point to a big increase in turnout, particularly among voters under the age of 30. Surveys showing a closer race assume less change in party affiliation in particular.
To be sure, Sen. Obama leads in every national poll, and the Electoral College map appears to favor the Illinois senator, who campaigns this weekend in Republican-leaning states that all voted for President George W. Bush.
Real Clear Politics, a nonpartisan Web site that tracks major polls, reported Thursday that Sen. Obama led Sen. McCain by 49.5% to 42.7%, based on an average of 13 national surveys taken in the past week.
The polls feeding into that conclusion show a wide range, from a CBS/New York Times poll giving Sen. Obama a 14-point lead, to a Gallup poll showing the Illinois senator with just a two-point edge, equal to the margin of error.
A Los Angeles Times-Bloomberg poll this week shows the Illinois senator leading by nine points, while a Pew Research Center survey gives him a seven-point lead. But an Investor's Business Daily-TIPP poll shows Sen. Obama with a nearly four-point advantage. Recent polls by Rasmussen Reports and Zogby International show Sen. Obama leading by four and five points, respectively.
One Gallup poll shows the Democratic nominee's lead has shrunk since last week, falling to six points from 10. "Clearly, the race has tightened," says Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Daily.
The polls owe their wide variations, in part, to differences in how they determine likely voters. Gallup actually conducts two separate daily polls, one that includes all surveyed adults who say they will vote, and a second that is more restricted, using a decades-old methodology that determines "likely voters" in part by examining historical models on the types of voters who have showed up at the polls.
In the first Gallup sample, Sen. Obama leads Sen. McCain by six points. The second group yields the two-point gap. Both polls were conducted from Oct. 13-15.
Differences over how to accurately gauge party affiliation also help account for the discrepancies. Some pollsters argue polls should be statistically "weighted" so that their results achieve a partisan composition that reflects long-term national averages -- particularly if a poll shows that one party gets an unusually large share among the respondents, compared with past elections.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen, for example, weights current polls so that Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 39.3% to 33% margin, while pollster John Zogby adjusts polls so that Democrats account for around 38% of the electorate and Republicans, 36%. So even if a particular sample of calls shows different ratios, the pollsters adjust to fit that formula.
"What troubles me is when I see some of my colleagues have 27% of the respondents that are Republicans. That's just not America, period," says Mr. Zogby, whose polls have shown Sen. Obama with a lead ranging from two to six points this month. He argues that while party affiliation fluctuates over time, it doesn't change "day-to-day, and it never fluctuates by eight points in a short time period."
Some surveys suggest McCain has gained ground in recent days.
Other pollsters argue that polls should use whatever partisan mix results from a particular survey rather than arbitrarily establishing party affiliation weights. "How do you know that's right? I mean, they're making up numbers," says Susan Pinkus, who conducts the Los Angeles Times-Bloomberg poll, which isn't weighted. In this week's poll, the respondents were 34% Democratic and 26% Republican.
Both campaigns are running large vote turnout operations, and the Obama campaign is counting on unprecedented turnout from young voters, which further complicates efforts to determine likely voters. "It's more art than science in many cases. They're very difficult decisions to make," says Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster who conducts the NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll.
Predicting turnout among young voters remains particularly challenging because many of those voters don't use landline phones that pollsters traditionally rely on to achieve a balanced sample. Pollsters have also struggled with accurately predicting minority turnout and how race could influence the current election.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122420151553142939.html
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One quick question......have any of you EVER received a call for one of these polls? Nobody I know has, so I wonder who it is that's getting all the calls, and what parts of the country they're polling. Or are they, as my cynical side wonders, just pulling these numbers out of their ass hoping to discourage McCain/Palin voters from going to the polls?
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I was polled four years ago in the last prez election. I got a phone call out of the blue one night. I don't remember many of the details of how they identified themselves to get me to answer but I said OK. Then they asked a bunch of quesstions about the candidates and how I felt about issues. It too about 10 to 15 minutes once it started.
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One quick question......have any of you EVER received a call for one of these polls? Nobody I know has, so I wonder who it is that's getting all the calls, and what parts of the country they're polling. Or are they, as my cynical side wonders, just pulling these numbers out of their ass hoping to discourage McCain/Palin voters from going to the polls?
I was polled for Joe Leiberman while I lived in CT. Probably a Senate bid or something. The questions were rather slanted and the answer, regardless of how it was answered, could be interpreted any way they wanted. "Do you strongly feel, slightly feel, itty-bitty bit feel" kind of questions. I got through about five minutes and hung up.
It reminded me of how TV shows that no-one watches get high Neilson ratings!
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My biggest problem with all these polls is they are based on the POPULAR vote, which really means NOTHING. The Electoral vote is more important and since Obuma has no chance of NOT getting states like CA and NY, McCain will need to get PA, FL, and OH to win. Most of the polls, although not 100%, show him behind in those states. (Yahoo has a good Scenario Generator to see if a state or two either direction would swing the vote, it shows Obuma with 344 to 167 votes and 23 not reported but in mainly Blue states) McCain could very well win the popular vote (51%) and loose the Electoral vote
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My biggest problem with all these polls is they are based on the POPULAR vote, which really means NOTHING. The Electoral vote is more important and since Obuma has no chance of NOT getting states like CA and NY, McCain will need to get PA, FL, and OH to win. Most of the polls, although not 100%, show him behind in those states. (Yahoo has a good Scenario Generator to see if a state or two either direction would swing the vote, it shows Obuma with 344 to 167 votes and 23 not reported but in mainly Blue states) McCain could very well win the popular vote (51%) and loose the Electoral vote
This election will certainly come down to the electoral vote - 2 maybe 3 swing states.
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I was polled for Joe Leiberman while I lived in CT. Probably a Senate bid or something. The questions were rather slanted and the answer, regardless of how it was answered, could be interpreted any way they wanted. "Do you strongly feel, slightly feel, itty-bitty bit feel" kind of questions. I got through about five minutes and hung up.
It reminded me of how TV shows that no-one watches get high Neilson ratings!
I got one on line through one of those "get paid for survey deals" ($3 whoopie !) same experience , it was slanted for Hillery.