The Down Range Forum
Member Section => Down Range Cafe => Topic started by: alfsauve on August 16, 2021, 05:40:51 PM
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A younger friend posted a meme about how this is what it must have felt like to be an adult through the Carter era. I commented that one result of Carter's policies was inflation and high interest rates. Now I just saw an article about metal prices soring. And while I'd like lower prices on drugs (heck on everything) government price fixing is only going to bring a disaster.
Despite the effort by USPSA and CH Precision to drive down 9mm prices (1,000rds Fed 115gr $355), I've got this sinking feeling that things are NOT going to get better for ammo.
Inflation, product shortages, mis-management of world affairs, messing with the economy, trillion dollar spending and general insecurities, especially regarding crime, I think rather than wait, it might be prudent to restock now. Yes, overpay for ammo rather than wait for prices that may never come down. Fill any empty voids in the safe. And trade up the clunker while it's even possible.
Anybody else?
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Agree completely.
Just saw a flier from Classic,
5.56, 300 Blk, 9mm,
All foreign made, but it's there.
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Once started, inflation has NEVER been stopped. Slowed perhaps, but never stopped. It can be easily triggered to accelerate at a runaway pace. Both Biden and Carter wrote the book on this. In less than 6 months Biden has had inflation take a running start like a Top Fuel Dragster.
It's much like one of those 10,000 meter speed skating events. Everyone is watching everyone. Then one breaks from the pack, and the race is on. They never finish any faster. They just get more tired doing it. Inflation is much the same.
Under Biden everything from ammunition, to lumber, to gasoline, and even bacon have been seriously hit, and has taken off in price. Some items have over tripled in price. And I agree, it's only going to get worse. Housing is presently going insane. Many homes have increased in price as much as 70% in less than 2 years.... And according to every real estate source I've looked at, there is no end in sight. Homes are selling in a few days for well over asking price. Many being driven well over their established value by, "bidding wars".
And you can only blame so much of this on Covid. It has caused some shortages down the line, but nothing to cause the runaway prices, and shortages were seeing on many items. I think this is going to get worse than the Carter years. Much worse. Mostly because the Democrats WANT this. They enjoy crises. It allows them to become more powerful as a direct result. Rahm Emmanuel said that very thing. Probably the only time a Democrat has spoken so truthfully, so eloquently.
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Yes, housing is insane. My sister in Mesa, AZ just sold her house. Her agent priced it at the high end and put up a "watch this space" sign. The following Friday it was scheduled to be officially listed, but it already had a number of offers, all over the asking price, and several were all cash. All were site unseen. Crazy.
Machiavelli held forth that Profit breeds competition; Excess profit breeds ruinous competition.
Boiled down to its essentials, if investors see another business making a fair profit, it's an enticement for at least some of those investors to enter the same business as competition. Reasonable. When investors see egregious profits, it's an enticement for many investors to enter the same field. The excessive competition that develops causes prices to collapse and businesses to fail--both old and established businesses, and the johnny-come-lately businesses.
In the ammunition manufacture scene, we are in the early phase of unrealistic profits.
It doesn't cost Remington or Federal any more to make ammo now than it did a year or two ago. But their margins have increased exponentially. And now we are seeing an influx of ammo from Bulgaria, Russia, and other turd-world countries. Prices have come down for many of these foreign made calibers.
The excessive competition that will fuel the collapse is not really here, yet. But it's coming. The slowdown has been caused by the relative difficulty and expense of building an ammo plant.
As the hurricane said to the coconut palm, hold onto your nuts; this is going to be one helluva blowjob.
Crusader Rabbit
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Same here.
The list price for a house is just the start point for the bidding war.
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Housing is nuts, I kid you not the day we broke ground i got almost 500 calls from people interested. I don't even have the 1st basement dug and I have people wanting to give me cash deposits.
I have told every one we will not be taking deposits/ orders until the models are done. I can put you on a list to call with a 2 week heads up. That list is already 200+ and more are adding too it every day.
Not surprisingly the idea of ada compliant housing was very popular. There is also the fact that I can get people in 6 months earlier than every one else. I am having to import labor as construction workers here are in a word slow. The average on site time here is 90 days, it should be in the 60s.
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Housing is nuts, I kid you not the day we broke ground i got almost 500 calls from people interested. I don't even have the 1st basement dug and I have people wanting to give me cash deposits.
I wonder where all this money is coming from? During the 2008 crash most everything was borrowed. People didn't care, because it wasn't their money in the first place. That doesn't appear to be the case this time around. And usually people with money are a bit more settled, and don't tend to run with the sheep.
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. I am having to import labor as construction workers here are in a word slow. The average on site time here is 90 days, it should be in the 60s.
Import Yankees.
The things that make Massholes so annoying also make them good workers.
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I wonder where all this money is coming from? During the 2008 crash most everything was borrowed. People didn't care, because it wasn't their money in the first place. That doesn't appear to be the case this time around. And usually people with money are a bit more settled, and don't tend to run with the sheep.
people bailing out of liberal areas
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people bailing out of liberal areas
That could very well be. An old co worker of mine from back in Chicago has a nice 2,400 Sq. Ft. split level home, on a half acre lot, right across from the Medinah Country Club. It's worth less than my 1,475 Sq. Ft. slab home. But that's Illinois, (people leaving left and right with property taxes in the stratosphere), compared to Arizona, (people moving in at the rate of over 300 people per day).
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Inflation for the last few months is at 10.8% but if you throw in fuel and food, which is not in the official number, it's closer to 13-14%. Of course the fed is saying these increases are "transatory" which is not true unless you ponder deflation/stagflation which could be on the horizon.
By the end of the year we will be in debt for $30 trillion. It was mathematically impossible to grow out of the debt around $14 trillion. Since $14 trillion it was going to take spending cuts, taxes or inflation. Inflation is here to stay for a while...perhaps Jimmy Carter style inflation. It makes no sense to hold cash that looses a dime on a dollar in purchasing power each year. So...people recognizing that are going to be buying hard assets like land, homes, jewelry, gold, stocks all that kind of stuff which will drive those prices up.
Right now I'm pretty happy being invested in food, oil and utility stocks. All have dividends and room to rumble....
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Right now I'm pretty happy being invested in food, oil and utility stocks. All have dividends and room to rumble....
And ammo???
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And ammo???
what is this ammo you speak of?
I am betting before biden/Camel toe leave office it is at last 35%
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I am betting before biden/Camel toe leave office it is at last 35%
Or higher. They love their backdoor gun control. While I didn't use the Russian stuff, it was better to have it around vs. having nothing around!
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And ammo???
Oh yeah.
Gold, silver and lead....the three precious metals.
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Or higher. They love their backdoor gun control. While I didn't use the Russian stuff, it was better to have it around vs. having nothing around!
I would advise every one to get a flintlock.
You can make gun powder, and mine lead, but they get you on caps and primers.
Can't limit rock production though ,
I probably will not do it, but that is due to money and space issues, not the reasoning.
The same reasoning would apply to Bow as well.
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That's good thinking Tom.
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That's good thinking Tom.
But bad budgeting. ;D
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Fuel delivery got so expensive i bought a fuel truck... no seriously. I did the math, buying a truck saves me almost $1000 a month. That is assuming I lose 20% of the purchase price at resale next year.
Its nuts right now. Gas is up 75% from march.March. diesel is about 65%
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Gas around $3.75 here
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for those shooting rim fire speed events... with the production lines running WFO, be mindful of squib loading with .22lr... I had my first ever squib round stuck in the barrel... luckily, I had a couple of under powered loads earlier that I could watch curve into the Steel Challenge targets at a practice session Friday... typical competition mind set is to clear a malfunction as quickly as possible and continue shooting...not a good idea if the bolt doesn't re-cock the hammer... regards Les
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Gas here is $3.48 for regular,$3.78 for Plus and $4.08 for Premium
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We are in the 3.50 range, in March it was <$2.
It is insane that I went thru all the hoops to be able to buy fuel whole sale from the refinery , a 140k fuel truck and a guy to drive it...I am saving money a very significant amount of money. All this is based off of a 20% loss in resale. When its sold it will have maybe 2k miles on it. So I doubt I will take even that much of a hit.
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Here regular, (87), is around $3.40. Premium, (91), is at or around $3.70.
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Just filled up my fuel truck... $26431.19 on the invoice
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Paid $3.15 for 87 octane today.
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$100 at Costco did not even fill the front tank...
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$100 at Costco did not even fill the front tank...
Makes this look a lot less foolish . ;D
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messerschmitt_KR200
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Makes this look a lot less foolish . ;D
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messerschmitt_KR200
when it can haul 4k # in the bed and tow 15k let me know...