The Down Range Forum
Member Section => Down Range Cafe => Topic started by: PegLeg45 on October 06, 2025, 11:35:52 AM
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After last year and Helene, I'm grateful that so far this season has seen storms stay out over open water. The last two came close to the east coast, but followed the path like earlier storms.
We still have folks in some areas that have not fully recovered from last year.
I noticed earlier in the season that in our area of the southeast (south-central GA) that a lot of our winds and airflow was out of the east-northeast, which is atypical. Most of ours rises out of the gulf. I expect this has had an effect on keeping storms pushed away and I hope this trend continues.
There's a disturbance out there now, but it looks like it may turn NNE as well.
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Of course after the last couple of "disturbances" people have lost some/all confidence in NHC's ability to forecast. Remember the one that was 90% chance, headed right for Cuba and a day later, nada. Amd then the IMELDA forecast. Dead on to hit Charleston. Oops no.
We do have to stay vigilant. Have many relative on the FL panhandle, SW Gulf Coast and Beaufort/Jacksonville area.
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We do have to stay vigilant.
After having three go right over us in the last handful of seasons, you are 100% correct.
TS Jerry is out there now, but like the others is predicted to head NE over the Atlantic.
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Every couple of years I do a plot of 24 and 48 hour forecast verses the actual track. I've found a fairly consistent bias in latitude and longitude. Now my plots could be off (NHC predictions and actual observations are at different times so I had to interpolate), but, assuming I'm not far wrong, you'd think they'd adjust the model accordingly. You know, learn from past performance.
Anyway, with Imelda they claimed, or at least the TV spokesperson did, that it was Humberto that cause it to take a sharp dogleg East. Trouble is Jerry's doing the same thing and there's no other storm out there this time.
A wild guess is that they base the forecast with too much emphasis on past tracks, modified by current conditions. Maybe they need to rely less on former tracks, or they're not looking at the right data, or they just haven't found the right formula to apply the data they have.
Did you know there's a Karen out there? Let the memes begin.
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I'm praying for the calm to hang on for a while and the shutdown to come to an end soon. We are scheduled to take a long weekend in Florida, Gulf side, the second weekend of November.
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We had some weird weather up north while this thread was going on. A couple of days it was 80 degrees when it should have been in the 60s. And it got down to ~30 degrees one or 2 nights within a week. Mid-60s feel a lot better than 80 degrees when you're working hard, but the work is still there when it's hot and sticky, which it shouldn't be in the fall. And it's been extremely dry most of the time. A little over 100 acres burned up and some guy on TV was talking about how dry it was and gave some measurement they use. I think whatever they checked was 600-800 units and 100-200 is a fire hazard. It was so bad the tree roots could have burned underground for a week after everything else was out, so they had to keep flying drones over the area to look for hot spots.
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MELISSA That's one L and two S's.
Talk about a wild and slow track. Currently goin 14mph but looks like it's be moving at less than half that by the weekend. Hurricane by Saturday am. Will be between Jamaica and Haiti.
This would really be one to gather the data and plot, but I'm not motivated.
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If Melissa is anything like that redhead I once dated, it's going to get crazy before it's over. :)
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If Melissa is anything like that redhead I once dated, it's going to get crazy before it's over. :)
A golf ball through a garden hose, crazy?
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And this morning Melissa's now projected to go south of Jamaica. This could be The One. 1900 Galveston type.
Read Issac's Storm about the NWS forecaster who totally blew it in Galveston. That and during that era the Cuban's were the world experts in hurricanes but the NWS with a burr under its blanket had recently cut all communications with Cuba. A Not-Invented-Here syndrome. They evidently tried to warn the US to no avail.
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MELISSA update as of this morning.
Jamaica gonna get pounded man, if the latest track holds. The eye will travel the length of the island just off the southern shore. The worst winds will travers right down the middle of the island then the following edge of the storm will slam water inland while the rain is trying to flow seaward.
Song stuck in my head
I don't know. I don't know. I don't know where I'm a gonna go when the hurricane blows.
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MELISSA update as of this morning.
Jamaica gonna get pounded man, if the latest track holds. The eye will travel the length of the island just off the southern shore. The worst winds will travers right down the middle of the island then the following edge of the storm will slam water inland while the rain is trying to flow seaward.
Song stuck in my head
I don't know. I don't know. I don't know where I'm a gonna go when the hurricane blows.
Don't you mean volcano!!!! Love that song and Hamberger in paradise!
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VOLCANO. NOBODY TOLD ME NOTHIN' 'BOUT NO VOLCANO, MON. Besides Hurricane will put it out.
So many good songs from Jimmy. Really didn't appreciate his whole catalog until I got Sirrus and started listening to the M'ville channel on trips.
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MILLISA, she one craz-z-zy 'cane, mon. Now gonna take a dogleg right and cut through the western tip of Jamica then hit Cuba. Everybody need to look out. No tell where she'll go after that
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A golf ball through a garden hose, crazy?
Yes sir! Unfortunately, her ex-husband knocked out her upper teeth with a baseball bat. The good thing is that when she took out her upper dentures, she didn't have to open her mouth as far and her jaw didn't ache like my ex-wife's did. I still miss her. But not my ex. ;D
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Well, I think it's a wrap for hurricanes in the Atlantic for 2025.
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Hurricane season must have an end to it some time. But I found out tornadoes can happen way outside of tornado season. The time when most tornadoes strike "tornado season" is March through June, but tornadoes have been documented in the U.S. during every month and day of the year. Two examples of this are when a series of tornadoes hit the state of Indiana on November 22, 1992, and injured at least nine people. Another notable non-season tornado was where a tornado struck the area of McLean County, Illinois. Even though the tornado was during a winter month, it blew 20 railroad cars off their tracks, and hauled a camper over 100 yards. Winter tornadoes are just wrong, but no one can't stop them. The first Saturday of each month during tornado season, the city tests all the warning sirens, but they don't know if the sirens will work when a tornado hits outside of the season.