The Down Range Forum
Member Section => Politics & RKBA => Topic started by: Rastus on October 31, 2008, 09:04:00 PM
-
Copied from www.drudgereport.com:
"ZOGBY SATURDAY: McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday poll. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all... "
-
Thank God! It's much too early for me to break into a happy dance, but at least now I can allow myself to maintain some hope for my fellow Americans.
Swoop
-
It's much to late for us to want to SEE your happy dance ;D
-
It's much to late for us to want to SEE your happy dance ;D
But he sent us a video link here... (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMkfG95ccEU&feature=related)
-
But he sent us a video link here... (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMkfG95ccEU&feature=related)
Close, but I don't think I'm that graceful. I make that kid look like a Soul Train dancer. ;D Let's just say, if their were a video of me dancing, someone would try to hold a telethon on my behalf. :-[
Swoop
-
USC on his shirt says it all.
-
Weekend polling usually favors democrates as republicans are busy with their families and kids activities such as football, dance lesson, and such. Saw that on the news a little while ago. With things the way they are with the economy you would think the dems would have this by a huge landlside. Heard bHo today telling people not to take it for granted, the way his operatives are pulling dirty tricks, the possible Bradley effect, and they way polling has been off in the past major elections, I think they may be worried. I suspect the have some internal polling that shows them things are much tighter thanwhat the MSM would have us believe.
-
Weekend polling usually favors democrates as republicans are busy with their families and kids activities such as football, dance lesson, and such. Saw that on the news a little while ago. With things the way they are with the economy you would think the dems would have this by a huge landlside. Heard bHo today telling people not to take it for granted, the way his operatives are pulling dirty tricks, the possible Bradley effect, and they way polling has been off in the past major elections, I think they may be worried. I suspect the have some internal polling that shows them things are much tighter thanwhat the MSM would have us believe.
At this point 4 years ago, I think Pres. Bush was still behind by 4-5%. So yeah, maybe they are, that is why ACORN got turned loose to damage the process.
-
Before anyone celebrates ..... why BHo's minions are impersonating the NRA on the phone & say they now support BHo, they are trying all kinds of tricks to mislead in addition to the standard demoralization of the 'enemy'. Add to this, yesterday a local Florida polling place shut down due to a bad Internet connection - if it's Internet, it can be compromised. Yeah I know, there's security etc. but I bet they have been working on & have already a plan in place to diddle with the election & it will take months if not years to detect it. By then it will be too late.
I am a firm believer in the Internet & it's benefits, but as far as elections I'm leery - it is the government & always involves the 'low bidder' for machines, software etc. The opportunity for corruption at this point is too big. I would love to be able to vote online much like I can pay bills, go to school or many other things online. It would solve many problems we have at the polls today - but unfortunately would also cause worldwide hacking of an unprecedented scale!
Like in Ohio, their registration computer system had a requirement to cross-check to other databases like drivers licenses. It does meet the requirement, however if you try to use it, the system crashes completely. It just doesn't work, but the requirement was only to have it, not insure it worked!! So 200K bad registrations are to be kept to not disemfranchise any bum on the street. But they promised to fixx the system after the election (if they get funding etc.).
Still Screwed!!!!!
-
At this point 4 years ago, I think Pres. Bush was still behind by 4-5%. So yeah, maybe they are, that is why ACORN got turned loose to damage the process.
+1 Kerry was ahead by at least 5-6 ON election day and writing his acceptance speach when the wheels fell off and he lost. That was a result of really poorly taken exit polls. Don't let the imformation coming out about the record turnout on early voting dissuade you, the media is filling the airwaves with bullshit as they always do.
-
+1 Kerry was ahead by at least 5-6 ON election day and writing his acceptance speach when the wheels fell off and he lost. That was a result of really poorly taken exit polls. Don't let the imformation coming out about the record turnout on early voting dissuade you, the media is filling the airwaves with bullshit as they always do.
Surely you're not suggesting that the MSM would............*GASP*.............LIE?!?
-
Surely you're not suggesting that the MSM would............*GASP*.............LIE?!?
Damn Skippy they would.....!!!!
At least it cost Dan Rather his job a few years ago! Friggin pinko!
-
Timothy, people like you are the reason the rest of us don't nuke Ma. ;D
Majer and a couple of other members keep NY from glowing in the dark as well ;D
-
Timothy, people like you are the reason the rest of us don't nuke Ma. ;D
Majer and a couple of other members keep NY from glowing in the dark as well ;D
There are a few of us, it's a small contingent but a dedicated one!
Don't know if you heard any of the lastest scandal though, a state Senator stuffing her bra with payola! What a hoot! I guess she was caught on tape doing the deed!
I guess our pinko Governor was on the stump for her as well...this could get real interesting!
-
There are a few of us, it's a small contingent but a dedicated one!
Don't know if you heard any of the lastest scandal though, a state Senator stuffing her bra with payola! What a hoot! I guess she was caught on tape doing the deed!
I guess our pinko Governor was on the stump for her as well...this could get real interesting!
I had heard she was facing Federal charges ;D
-
I have noticed that the Yahoo poll map and they have the percentages with a ticker for teh change. Obam's numbers have been dropping, slowly, say .1-.4% but McCain's have gained at twice that rate. Also a few days ago they showed McCainwith around 150 electoral votes and he's currently at 181. Progress but not enough. I was messing with the map and there is actually a possibility of BOTH of them not getting enough electoral votes to win (270), but only if the right states go the other way.
-
I have noticed that the Yahoo poll map and they have the percentages with a ticker for teh change. Obam's numbers have been dropping, slowly, say .1-.4% but McCain's have gained at twice that rate. Also a few days ago they showed McCainwith around 150 electoral votes and he's currently at 181. Progress but not enough. I was messing with the map and there is actually a possibility of BOTH of them not getting enough electoral votes to win (270), but only if the right states go the other way.
Tilden or BLOOD !
The election between Tilden and Hayes went that way, tempers got heated with threats of violance from both camps. The Supreme Court ruled in favor of Rutherford B. Hayes.
-
Weekend polling usually favors democrates as republicans are busy with their families and kids activities such as football, dance lesson, and such. Saw that on the news a little while ago. With things the way they are with the economy you would think the dems would have this by a huge landlside. Heard bHo today telling people not to take it for granted, the way his operatives are pulling dirty tricks, the possible Bradley effect, and they way polling has been off in the past major elections, I think they may be worried. I suspect the have some internal polling that shows them things are much tighter thanwhat the MSM would have us believe.
Bradley now says it was guns not race that cost him:
It was guns, not race, that affected Bradley
By JOE MATHEWS | 11/4/08 4:27 AM EST
Nelson Rising, chairman of Tom Bradley’s 1982 campaign for California governor, still remembers the phone call. Bradley called him shortly after 4 a.m. on a long Election Night, when it was clear Bradley had lost to Republican George Deukmejian.
“You were right,” Bradley told Rising a bit wearily.
With those words, Bradley, the Democratic mayor of Los Angeles, acknowledged that a political mistake had cost him the governorship. And, despite all the theories that the election produced a “Bradley effect” that could hurt black candidates such as Bradley — and, a quarter-century later, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama — the mayor himself knew his loss had little to do with race or polls.
The main problem was guns. Against Rising’s advice, Bradley had endorsed Proposition 15, a statewide ballot initiative that would have put a freeze on purchases of new guns. Bradley and Proposition 15 both had a lead in the polls when Bradley decided to back the initiative. But there was a huge backlash against Proposition 15 in inland, conservative California precincts. The resulting turnout was so overwhelming that it took down Bradley — just as Rising had predicted in a campaign meeting months earlier.
“I will never forget that meeting,” Rising recalled. “I said, ‘I don’t own a gun. I don’t intend to own a gun. If I could design a world without guns, I would. But Tom, if you support this, you can’t win.’”
On Election Night, Deukmejian’s team came to the same conclusion. “Without Tom Bradley endorsing Prop. 15,” said Steve Merksamer, a former Deukmejian chief of staff, “we would have lost.”
Over the past few weeks, I examined polling and news stories from the 1982 race and talked with dozens of major players in the Bradley and Deukmejian campaigns. There is no independent data or evidence that suggests that race decided the election, a fate many have suggested could befall Obama. And only two survivors of that campaign expressed any belief in the idea that the 1982 California governor’s race saw a Bradley effect — a racist vote that was concealed from pollsters. And even those two campaign workers, former Bradley aides Phil Depoian and Bill Elkins, say that, without Proposition 15, Bradley almost certainly would have won anyway.
According to those who were there, the real lessons of the Bradley campaign involve the dangers posed by divisive issues and by a candidate’s own allies. Bradley’s campaign suffered three self-inflicted wounds it could not overcome.
The first: guns. Proposition 15 had been qualified for the ballot by men who were Bradley’s friends; chief among them was John Phillips. Some Bradley aides say they tried to persuade Phillips to wait and qualify the measure for a later election, so as not to hurt the mayor’s campaign. But Phillips, now an attorney in Washington, doesn’t recall such appeals.
What Phillips does remember is having all eyes on him at the Election Night party at the Biltmore Hotel in downtown LA. “Everybody blamed me for the defeat of the first black governor of California — I know Bradley felt that himself,” said Phillips. Some people in the campaign still do. Today, in one of life’s little ironies, Phillips is raising money for Obama, and Phillips’ wife, journalist Linda Douglass, serves as a top adviser and press aide to the Democratic nominee.
The second: absentee ballots. The 1982 election in California was the first under new laws that made it easier to vote absentee. Democrats had lobbied for the changes, but Bradley’s campaign did little to take advantage. Republicans, led largely by people involved in that year’s U.S. Senate campaign of then-San Diego Mayor Pete Wilson, skillfully exploited the new rules, asking GOP voters to cast absentee ballots if possible.
“I think it was significant,” said Wilson, who served eight years in the Senate and two terms as California governor. “We figured, ‘We’ll get a higher percentage of our registered voters to vote than the Democrats will get of their registered voters.’”
It worked. Bradley won in exit polls because he actually did win more votes among those who actually went to a polling place. The huge Republican advantage in absentee ballots provided Deukmejian with the victory. This phenomenon persisted in California for several election cycles. In the 1990 gubernatorial race between Wilson and Dianne Feinstein, the Democrat won in some exit polls but lost the race because of absentee votes.
Finally, the third: low African-American turnout. This was a three-part problem, involving black voters, regional rivalries and, of all things, football.
Bradley, wary of being seen as “the black candidate,” didn’t campaign in the black community and didn’t do enough to turn out black voters, some aides recalled. “The position we took was, ‘My God, this is a historical event and black folks are going to turn out as never before,’” said Elkins, one of Bradley’s closest aides. “And instead, the turnout did not reach the level we thought it would.”
Black turnout — in fact, Democratic turnout, in general — was particularly low in the Bay Area. Campaign veterans on both sides of the race believe Northern Californians didn’t trust Bradley, in large part because he was mayor of their unpopular regional rival. To make matters worse, Los Angeles, under Bradley, had lured away the popular Oakland Raiders football team that same fall.
“It was about football,” said Bill Norris, a longtime Bradley supporter who was a federal appellate judge at the time. “The turnout in black precincts in Oakland was below expectations, and I believe that’s because of hard feelings that LA had stolen the team.”
These three factors explain the inaccuracy of public polls showing a Bradley lead. Surveys did not account for the unexpectedly low black turnout and the surge of mostly conservative voters who cared about the gun issue.
If guns, mail ballots and a weak black turnout constitute the real Bradley effect, it seems unlikely that such an effect will hurt Obama.
The Democratic presidential nominee has handled each issue differently than Bradley did. Obama organized African-American communities. His campaign has a huge absentee ballot effort. And he’s distanced himself from gun control, going so far as to endorse the idea that individual gun ownership is a constitutional right.
Joe Mathews, an Irvine senior fellow at the New America Foundation, writes about California political history.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1108/15220.html