The Down Range Forum
Member Section => Down Range Cafe => Topic started by: Rastus on May 31, 2009, 04:54:38 PM
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Some of us were in the chat room other night talking about EMP. However unlikely you think a foreign attack is, there have been EMP events generated by the sun and recorded for history...see the NASA article below where I've made the wording bold print. Note how robust telegraph circuits caught on fire....which are orders of magnitude resiliant to EMP compared to IC chips. Also, that Maunder Minimum, compares with the little ice age that was experienced and recorded in Europe...despite what Albert Gore has to say about global warming...sun spot activity and solar luminosity are the real deal when correlating global temperatures to an index or standard.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/29may_noaaprediction.htm (http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/29may_noaaprediction.htm)
New Solar Cycle Prediction
05.29.2009
May 29, 2009: An international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle. Solar Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots.
"If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78," says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.
It is tempting to describe such a cycle as "weak" or "mild," but that could give the wrong impression.
"Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather," points out Biesecker. "The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013."
The 1859 storm--known as the "Carrington Event" after astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare--electrified transmission cables, set fires in telegraph offices, and produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read newspapers by their red and green glow. A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a similar storm occurred today, it could cause $1 to 2 trillion in damages to society's high-tech infrastructure and require four to ten years for complete recovery. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina caused "only" $80 to 125 billion in damage.
(http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/images/noaaprediction/prediction_strip2.jpg)
Above: This plot of sunspot numbers shows the measured peak of the last solar cycle in blue and the predicted peak of the next solar cycle in red. Credit: NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center. [more]
The latest forecast revises an earlier prediction issued in 2007. At that time, a sharply divided panel believed solar minimum would come in March 2008 followed by either a strong solar maximum in 2011 or a weak solar maximum in 2012. Competing models gave different answers, and researchers were eager for the sun to reveal which was correct.
"It turns out that none of our models were totally correct," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA's lead representative on the panel. "The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way."
Researchers have known about the solar cycle since the mid-1800s. Graphs of sunspot numbers resemble a roller coaster, going up and down with an approximately 11-year period. At first glance, it looks like a regular pattern, but predicting the peaks and valleys has proven troublesome. Cycles vary in length from about 9 to 14 years. Some peaks are high, others low. The valleys are usually brief, lasting only a couple of years, but sometimes they stretch out much longer. In the 17th century the sun plunged into a 70-year period of spotlessness known as the Maunder Minimum that still baffles scientists.
(http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/images/noaaprediction/maunderminimum_strip2.gif)
Above: Yearly-averaged sunspot numbers from 1610 to 2008. Researchers believe upcoming Solar Cycle 24 will be similar to the cycle that peaked in 1928, marked by a red arrow. Credit: NASA/MSFC
Right now, the solar cycle is in a valley--the deepest of the past century. In 2008 and 2009, the sun set Space Age records for low sunspot counts, weak solar wind, and low solar irradiance. The sun has gone more than two years without a significant solar flare.
"In our professional careers, we've never seen anything quite like it," says Pesnell. "Solar minimum has lasted far beyond the date we predicted in 2007."
In recent months, however, the sun has begun to show timorous signs of life. Small sunspots and "proto-sunspots" are popping up with increasing frequency. Enormous currents of plasma on the sun’s surface ("zonal flows") are gaining strength and slowly drifting toward the sun’s equator. Radio astronomers have detected a tiny but significant uptick in solar radio emissions. All these things are precursors of an awakening Solar Cycle 24 and form the basis for the panel's new, almost unanimous forecast.
According to the forecast, the sun should remain generally calm for at least another year. From a research point of view, that's good news because solar minimum has proven to be more interesting than anyone imagined. Low solar activity has a profound effect on Earth’s atmosphere, allowing it to cool and contract. Space junk accumulates in Earth orbit because there is less aerodynamic drag. The becalmed solar wind whips up fewer magnetic storms around Earth's poles. Cosmic rays that are normally pushed back by solar wind instead intrude on the near-Earth environment. There are other side-effects, too, that can be studied only so long as the sun remains quiet.
Meanwhile, the sun pays little heed to human committees. There could be more surprises, panelists acknowledge, and more revisions to the forecast.
"Go ahead and mark your calendar for May 2013," says Pesnell. "But use a pencil."
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Sooooooooooooooooooo, did we cause this by destroying ozone or pumping out too much carbon ;) Someone call Gore so he can set us straight before we damage the sun any further.
Seriously, I hate times of high activity on the sun, because it really messes with radio signals. I can only imagine the true depth beyond my not being able to tune in the Twins game because our local signal is being interrupted or some distant station is overriding because of some weird cosmic force.
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Rastus wrote:
May 29, 2009: An international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle. Solar Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots.
"If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78," says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Everyone knows this is all Bush's fault.
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I did see this on tv. Rather scary if and when the event happens. Can't believe Gore did not predict it? It is Bush's fault though, lol. ;D
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Everybody knows the world will end on Dec. 21 2012 so no worrys.
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Dude, we're gonna die and stuff... 8) 8) 8) 8)
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Dude, we're gonna die and stuff... 8) 8) 8) 8)
If one of those flares toasts the electrical grid, yes, up to 90% of us will die.
http://www.onesecondafter.com/pb/wp_d10e87d9/wp_d10e87d9.html
This is from a website Rastus recommended, Scary stuff.
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If one of those flares toasts the electrical grid, yes, up to 90% of us will die.
http://www.onesecondafter.com/pb/wp_d10e87d9/wp_d10e87d9.html
This is from a website Rastus recommended, Scary stuff.
That was a chilling read........
I guess 'Duck and Cover' is out of the question... ???
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That was a chilling read........
I guess 'Duck and Cover' is out of the question... ???
Definitely "Shake & Bake"
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If one of those flares toasts the electrical grid, yes, up to 90% of us will die.
http://www.onesecondafter.com/pb/wp_d10e87d9/wp_d10e87d9.html
This is from a website Rastus recommended, Scary stuff.
MB turned me onto this book. My concern level has increased with the increasing belligerance of North Korea and Iran. EMP is something I've been concerned about for over a decade and it's a bit more an issue now than before.
I have propane for stovetop and backup heat. For a couple of hundred dollars you can go to Sam's Club and buy bulk beans, rice, sugar, salt and flour....like in the old days....a bit more and you can have canned meats..vienna sausage, tuna, chili and the like...that will go a long way with the bulk stuff. Bottled water, in bulk...will help for a few days...but you need to have a filter if you don't have an artesian well or such.
Meds...well, that's why I was asking about Canadian sources in a post not long ago. Didn't get much response on it....but EMP supply of Coreg, Vasotec and Lasix was tops on the list for my wife as was Tamiflu and various antibiotics. If you live in a city may God help you if an EMP happens, horrors unseen since the middle ages will be the norm until the sick people die (heart patients, diabetics, etc.) and a sustainable population is reached after mass starvation.
Will a large-scale EMP event ever happen? I hope not. It would be far worse than a civil war breaking out.
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http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,523637,00.html (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,523637,00.html)
Reports: N. Korea Prepares Long-Range Missile
Monday,
April 5: A North Korean missile launch facility at Musudan-Ri is spied from 423 miles in space.
SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea is preparing to launch its most advanced missile, believed to be capable of reaching Alaska, from its west coast near China, news reports said Monday.
With the launch, the reclusive communist country could thumb its nose at U.N. Security Council attempts to rein it in after last week's nuclear test and a series of short-range missile launches.
One South Korean report said the launch could be ready by the time South Korean President Lee Myung-bak meets with President Barack Obama on June 16.
South Korean news reports said the North has transported a long-range missile to a newly completed launch pad. And Yonhap news agency said South Korea is studying an intelligence report that the North has ordered troops along the west coast to double their stocks of ammunition.
Yonhap cited an unnamed government official as saying vehicle activity to and from military bases along the coast has increased. South Korea's Defense Ministry declined to confirm the report.
U.S Defense Secretary Robert Gates, speaking at a news conference in the Philippines, said North Korea appears to be working on a long-range missile but it's not clear yet what they plan to do with it.
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In another sign that a new launch is in the works, the North has designated a large area off its west coast as a "no-sail" zone through the end of next month, the Chosun Ilbo newspaper said, citing unidentified intelligence officials.
Experts said the preparations were especially significant because the North has never launched a long-range missile from the northwestern base.
Kim Tae-woo, vice president of Seoul's state-run Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, said he thinks the North chose the site because of its proximity to China, making it more risky for the U.S. to strike.
The site is about 40 miles from the Chinese border city of Dandong.
The missile being prepared for launch is believed to be an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of up to 4,000 miles, the JoongAng Ilbo reported, citing an unnamed South Korean official.
That would put Alaska within striking range.
On Monday, the North said again that it is being provoked by South Korea and the United States, saying that the number of spy planes operating in its airspace has risen dramatically.
"The U.S. imperialists and the South Korean puppets perpetrated at least 200 cases of aerial espionage against the DPRK in May, or 30 cases more than those in the same month of last year," it said in a report in its official Korean Central News Agency.
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The North's missile and nuclear programs have been considered a top regional security concern, though the regime is not yet believed to have mastered the technology to make a nuclear warhead small enough to mount on a missile.
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North Korea would be an easy take if the Chinese and Russians would stay out of it. We could wipe them out rather swiftly. Funny how the U.S. was playing nice with them a few months back and their dictator took advantage of the situation. The United States needs to quit playing the nice guy and start busting heads. The Russians and the Chinese are not our friends and I wish the U.S. Leaders would wake up and smell the coffee.
As for the EMP. It would be the only reason that all countries should remain nuetral to assist each other to save the human race. Do you actually think that would happen? I am sure there are certain countries that would exploit other countries that were more directly affected.
I do not like to get involved with conspiracy theories or end of world discussions but this topic of the EMP seems rather relevant. I have made certain preparations in case of a tornado or other minor catastrophe. But to deal with a EMP would blow anything I am prepared for away.
Lots of things to think about. Generators for power. Propane tanks for cooking/heat. Bicycles/horses for transportation. Water purification tabs and filters. Food shortages would be a mess. This is a scary topic. I reckon I better buy more guns and bullets. The zombies will be coming soon, lol. ;D
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Since war was declared a "Crime against Peace" in 1928 I would not put to much faith in ANY country helping another unless they stood to gain.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kellogg-Briand_Pact
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Since war was declared a "Crime against Peace" in 1928 I would not put to much faith in ANY country helping another unless they stood to gain.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kellogg-Briand_Pact
Crime against peace. Well we can't have that. What modern and enlightened thinking....I see the unicorns prancing across rainbows and flowered fields......this is.....so very, very...well, very, very enlightened, uplifting, positive and deciding. We're all safe now.
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Don't get your hopes up Rastus, it didn't work out any better than the League of Nations.
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Forget nations acting for "the common good". This is the main beef I have with W. and his evil ( or is that the good, who cares, twin) Cater. They both believed this idealism in FP crap. To quote Frankilin, "Nations have neither permanent friends, nor eternal enemies. They have interests that are permanent and eternal." Or, more from an original source, Thucydides from from The Melian Dialogue "The strong do as they will, the weak suffer what they must". Not very uplifting, but its how the world works. The sooner a president of either party gets that (and no "open borders" McCain didn't either) the better off we'll be. Realism, what a concept.
FQ13
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I kept my little wooden desk from elementary school I was taught would save me if I got under it, so no worrys.
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Oh that is priceless 2How, lol. Thanks for the laugh. Been a rough day. :)