The Down Range Forum
Member Section => Down Range Cafe => Topic started by: fullautovalmet76 on July 04, 2009, 08:08:53 PM
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Food for thought:
At the IDPA shoot today, I spoke to a manager of a local gun shop about the AR market and what he told me about the state of the market was enlightening.
He told me his store is sitting on at least 100 (new) AR rifles and another, larger store in our area, is sitting on even more. He told me that in the next few weeks or months I should start seeing significant discounts on good quality ARs. He likened the situation to the housing bubble. He told me if I was holding off on purchasing any new ARs that the near future holds good promise.
If his store is typical, and I think it is typical of the tactical-focused shop, I believe this same situation may be playing out all over the country. I think I would keep a sharp eye out for deals in the coming weeks.
-FA
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Yes price is about to come down in my opinion. I also think that when teh dust settles, the doomsday buyers will come to their senses, and the used gun market will flood with quality firearms at great prices...
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I can guarantee the price will come down. How do I know? I just bought one. This is the surest sign that th market will turn. I expect to see them half of what I paid in a year. When that happens, send me a box of ammo.
FQ13
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Gosh I hope we get some price reduction without sending the people who build them home.
I'd sure like to get an AR-10....but at about 300-500 less than the going rate.
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I can guarantee the price will come down. How do I know? I just bought one. This is the surest sign that th market will turn. I expect to see them half of what I paid in a year. When that happens, send me a box of ammo.
FQ13
Darn FQ, I wanted to be the one to point out the timing to you, now that you have YOURS they are going to start paying US to take them. ;D Buy a bunch of ammo now, I need some bargains ;D
Actually you didn't do badly even by pre B O standards.
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I just hope the market doesn't sink and people end up out of work and companies go under.
I'm waiting on an order from Model 1 sales. I called this week and they are still working on shipping orders from January. They are now getting out about 2 days worth of orders for every day they work. When I called in April because I had to give then a differant CC number they were still workink on December's orders.
I know that barrels are still a holdup for some companies. For what ever reason 20" barrels for some companies are a problem. I wonder if that may be to everyone concentrating on M-4 style and carbine barrels.
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Yes price is about to come down in my opinion. I also think that when teh dust settles, the doomsday buyers will come to their senses, and the used gun market will flood with quality firearms at great prices...
Mentioned on previous posts also.
Tough economic times continue for many. AR's bought last year for less than they can sell them for now, will put "slightly" used firearms of all types on the market. NIB retailers will have to adjust their costs to reflect that.
Why buy a $1200 AR, when another dealer has 5 slightly used ones, for $800. That's a better market (free, BTW), supply and demand dictates price.
The other side of the coin is AMMO AVAILABILITY!!!
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On ammo availability:
In my area I'm starting to see signs the supply is coming back up, but it is no where near what it was before the election. My guesstimate puts full supply at year's end.
As Quaker and other pointed out about ammo availability influencing sales, I wonder how much it will matter once supply is restored to a level that should stimulate sales. My hunch is that it will help some but not nearly enough to work the excess inventory in dealer stocks.
Michael Bane,
Do you think you can put you ear to the ground and interview major distributors around the country to get their take?
-FA
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On ammo availability:
In my area I'm starting to see signs the supply is coming back up, but it is no where near what it was before the election. My guesstimate puts full supply at year's end.
.........
Michael Bane,
Do you think you can put you ear to the ground and interview major distributors around the country to get their take?
-FA
I made a pass on 3 boxes of 100 of Federal 55 grain HP yesterday at Wally's Place...it lists for $41.34 a box. I had just spent $200+ partially replacing ammo the family used training at USSA the other day, or else I would have grabbed it.
MB had some information in a recent podcast (back three?) that was grim for the ammo availability...something like if the actions overseas ended today it would take 3 to 5 years just to get the military's supplies back to stocking levels....
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I stopped by the local Mom&Pop gun shop on Thursday, and they had a rack FULL of ARs and even AKs and SKS. Prices were still so-so. They also had a bunch of ammo, not lots, but a good supply, and a lot of brands I've never heard of before.
Wally World is still devoid of anything other than hunting or oddball calibers.
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I just hope the market doesn't sink and people end up out of work and companies go under.
I'm waiting on an order from Model 1 sales. I called this week and they are still working on shipping orders from January. They are now getting out about 2 days worth of orders for every day they work. When I called in April because I had to give then a differant CC number they were still workink on December's orders.
I know that barrels are still a holdup for some companies. For what ever reason 20" barrels for some companies are a problem. I wonder if that may be to everyone concentrating on M-4 style and carbine barrels.
Unfortunately the market will sink and people are going to be laid off. The companies that survive will be the ones that are able to come up with the "new" add on gadget that everyone has to have. Companies like Ruger that assemble their AR's from aftermarket parts won't be as affected as dedicated manufacturers.
I've always been surprised that with the slow market saturation of the AR platform, we don't see more emphasis on the selling of upper assemblies for different calibers.
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Food for thought:
At the IDPA shoot today, I spoke to a manager of a local gun shop about the AR market and what he told me about the state of the market was enlightening.
He told me his store is sitting on at least 100 (new) AR rifles and another, larger store in our area, is sitting on even more. He told me that in the next few weeks or months I should start seeing significant discounts on good quality ARs. He likened the situation to the housing bubble. He told me if I was holding off on purchasing any new ARs that the near future holds good promise.
If his store is typical, and I think it is typical of the tactical-focused shop, I believe this same situation may be playing out all over the country. I think I would keep a sharp eye out for deals in the coming weeks.
-FA
Told ya so!
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How many companies hired on extra hands to meet demand? That should give an idea if layoffs or company failures are in the future. But over all I think this is great, the market is flooded with inventory, factories are cranking at super high rates, and when prices start to come down hopefully more folks will get into the tactical rifle game. The more AR's we put into different hands, the harder it'll be to legislate them, maybe. On the same note the speculators that hoarded weapons and ammo won't like the news if they haven't yet cashed in on their investment. Companies may just have to sale more product at a lower price to meet their budgets. And if anything, at least people some folks have woken up and started to see guns for what they are, not some antique hunting implement, but a tool to be used because you have a right to self protection and defense. Ten or fifteen years ago, would most of you thought that the market would be this tactical and focused on self defense? Entire companies have changed their operation to meet a more aware public's demands.
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Bryan, I think the manufacturers tried to limit the hiring the same way they and ammo manufacturers have not engaged in plant expansion which is what lead to the huge back order lists. They tried to make up as much as possible by working overtime. I heard that some companies had added week end shifts, if those are eliminated the lay offs will only effect a few hundred relatively new and inexperienced workers, as opposed to idling thousands of skilled workers.
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Bryan, I think the manufacturers tried to limit the hiring the same way they and ammo manufacturers have not engaged in plant expansion which is what lead to the huge back order lists. They tried to make up as much as possible by working overtime. I heard that some companies had added week end shifts, if those are eliminated the lay offs will only effect a few hundred relatively new and inexperienced workers, as opposed to idling thousands of skilled workers.
Then those manufactures did right, hard to imagine that companies can do that now a days. Rather have the back order list than have a major company reorganization to meet a relatively short term surge in consumer interest. Hopefully it'll be less of a lay off than letting temp workers go on their way, I expect they've thought this out from the get go.
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I really think Tom's right here (did I just type that?). The same paranoia that drove the buying had to be telling the makers that spending a lot of long term capital to produce something that could be banned tommorow was unwise.
FQ13
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Then those manufactures did right, hard to imagine that companies can do that now a days. Rather have the back order list than have a major company reorganization to meet a relatively short term surge in consumer interest. Hopefully it'll be less of a lay off than letting temp workers go on their way, I expect they've thought this out from the get go.
That's what I'm figuring, except for companies that moved, like Para, or introduced new lines of product like FNH, I did not here about any of the building expansion that would have been needed to add new machinery. I HAVE heard that some, Like Black Hills Ammo are using the increased profits to replace older machinery, while they have the chance.
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I am with you Rastus. I would love to own a AR-10. Congrat's FQ on finally getting a AR. DPMS rocks in my opinion.
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I really think Tom's right here (did I just type that?). The same paranoia that drove the buying had to be telling the makers that spending a lot of long term capital to produce something that could be banned tommorow was unwise.
FQ13
:o
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I am with you Rastus. I would love to own a AR-10. Congrat's FQ on finally getting a AR. DPMS rocks in my opinion.
The one MB mentioned in his Podcast, CMMG. Gas Piston system that uses G-3 mags at $5 -$10 per instead of M-1a or proprietary mags at $50+ each
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Rock River Arms manufactures the LAR-8, a .308 caliber AR style rifle. It accepts FAL (metric) or L1A1 (inch) magazines. I have heard, but not confirmed, that RRA bought the basic design of this rifle from another manufaturer and tweeked it until they got it right and reliable. There is quite a wait for them. I have a LEO friend that has had one on order for quite some time. When ordered he was told probably better than a year and he was given priority over some others.
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I think that the biggest economic hit in this rebound market will be the gun shops that either stocked up or ordered at higher prices. Those that have the finances will be able to "buy high and sell low" to minimize losses, but those living close will need the higher price to come out and could be done over it.
I think that manufacturers will do some restructuring, but right now they have done most of their increase with overtime work. So, while there may be some layoffs, most correction will probably come in terms of return to normal work hours ... something that many workers will be ready for after many months of long days and weeks.
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An update from today's gun show:
Plenty of ARs on sale! I saw several complete units for around $900. And plenty of dealers willing to deal on new handguns too..
On Ammo:
Georgia Arms was there and had plenty of the popular calibers except .45 ACP (limited to 100 rds/person) and .380 (none). I asked them if their supplies are stabilizing and they said it is still sketchy....And for the bellwether, WalMart, had no ammo....The .45 ACP (230 gr.) was selling at the gun show for $17.99 for 50 rounds.....A local dealer has received a big shipment of ammo in the recent days and is selling .45 ACP ball ammo for $349 a case and this is Blazer Brass ammo too....At least in my neck of the woods, things might be bottoming out in terms of supply for ammo...we'll see....
And for a completely unsubstantiated report (if the news media can do it, so can I):
I was told by a dealer, to whom I give some credence, the FBI is converting the rest of its force over to .40 cal. With all of this in mind, the feds have decided to purchase $330 million dollars worth of .40 ammo over the next few years. The impact is expected to 70 percent of the capacity of manufacturers who make this ammo.....Hmmm.....I think if any shoot .40 cal they might want to start stocking up if they haven't been doing it already.......
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An update from today's gun show:
Plenty of ARs on sale! I saw several complete units for around $900. And plenty of dealers willing to deal on new handguns too..
On Ammo:
Georgia Arms was there and had plenty of the popular calibers except .45 ACP (limited to 100 rds/person) and .380 (none). I asked them if their supplies are stabilizing and they said it is still sketchy....And for the bellwether, WalMart, had no ammo....The .45 ACP (230 gr.) was selling at the gun show for $17.99 for 50 rounds.....A local dealer has received a big shipment of ammo in the recent days and is selling .45 ACP ball ammo for $349 a case and this is Blazer Brass ammo too....At least in my neck of the woods, things might be bottoming out in terms of supply for ammo...we'll see....
And for a completely unsubstantiated report (if the news media can do it, so can I):
I was told by a dealer, to whom I give some credence, the FBI is converting the rest of its force over to .40 cal. With all of this in mind, the feds have decided to purchase $330 million dollars worth of .40 ammo over the next few years. The impact is expected to 70 percent of the capacity of manufacturers who make this ammo.....Hmmm.....I think if any shoot .40 cal they might want to start stocking up if they haven't been doing it already.......
The FBI is giving up on 10mm?
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The FBI is giving up on 10mm?
Not sure about 10mm, but they are leaving the 9mm for .40 cal.....I think .40 cal is the default cartridge for most LE agencies today anyway.....
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And one more thing from today's gun show report:
Reloading supplies are available, and small pistol primers continue to be hot items....So I got some small rifle primers instead.....
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Rock River Arms manufactures the LAR-8, a .308 caliber AR style rifle. It accepts FAL (metric) or L1A1 (inch) magazines. I have heard, but not confirmed, that RRA bought the basic design of this rifle from another manufaturer and tweeked it until they got it right and reliable.
Sorry to resurrect an old thread - a little behind in my reading. The LAR-8 is an improved Bushmaster, which was licensed from RRA in the first place. I believe it was about 3 years from announcement to shipping, and they are very backlogged. The popular makers are still very backlogged for all models. What is showing up was ordered way back.
Lee
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I believe it was about 3 years from announcement to shipping, and they are very backlogged. The popular makers are still very backlogged for all models. What is showing up was ordered way back.
Lee
Understood....What I saw today was plenty of supply and not alot of demand....