The Down Range Forum
Member Section => Politics & RKBA => Topic started by: Hazcat on October 02, 2009, 10:59:29 PM
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President Obama has reaffirmed a 4-decade-old secret understanding that has allowed Israel to keep a nuclear arsenal without opening it to international inspections, three officials familiar with the understanding said.
The officials, who spoke on the condition that they not be named because they were discussing private conversations, said Mr. Obama pledged to maintain the agreement when he first hosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House in May.
Under the understanding, the U.S. has not pressured Israel to disclose its nuclear weapons or to sign the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which could require Israel to give up its estimated several hundred nuclear bombs.
Israel had been nervous that Mr. Obama would not continue the 1969 understanding because of his strong support for nonproliferation and priority on preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The U.S. and five other world powers made progress during talks with Iran in Geneva on Thursday as Iran agreed in principle to transfer some potential bomb fuel out of the country and to open a recently disclosed facility to international inspection.
Mr. Netanyahu let the news of the continued U.S.-Israeli accord slip last week in a remark that attracted little notice. He was asked by Israel's Channel 2 whether he was worried that Mr. Obama's speech at the U.N. General Assembly, calling for a world without nuclear weapons, would apply to Israel.
"It was utterly clear from the context of the speech that he was speaking about North Korea and Iran," the Israeli leader said. "But I want to remind you that in my first meeting with President Obama in Washington I received from him, and I asked to receive from him, an itemized list of the strategic understandings that have existed for many years between Israel and the United States on that issue. It was not for naught that I requested, and it was not for naught that I received [that document]."
The chief nuclear understanding was reached at a summit between President Nixon and Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir that began on Sept. 25, 1969. Avner Cohen, author of "Israel and the Bomb" and the leading authority outside the Israeli government on the history of Israel's nuclear program, said the accord amounts to "the United States passively accepting Israel's nuclear weapons status as long as Israel does not unveil publicly its capability or test a weapon."
There is no formal record of the agreement nor have Israeli nor American governments ever publicly acknowledged it. In 2007, however, the Nixon library declassified a July 19, 1969, memo from national security adviser Henry Kissinger that comes closest to articulating U.S. policy on the issue. That memo says, "While we might ideally like to halt actual Israeli possession, what we really want at a minimum may be just to keep Israeli possession from becoming an established international fact."
Mr. Cohen has said the resulting policy was the equivalent of "don't ask, don't tell."
The Netanyahu government sought to reaffirm the understanding in part out of concern that Iran would seek Israeli disclosures of its nuclear program in negotiations with the United States and other world powers. Iran has frequently accused the U.S. of having a double standard by not objecting to Israel's arsenal.
Mr. Cohen said the reaffirmation and the fact that Mr. Netanyahu sought and received a written record of the deal suggest that "it appears not only that there was no joint understanding of what had been agreed in September 1969 but it is also apparent that even the notes of the two leaders may no longer exist. It means that Netanyahu wanted to have something in writing that implies that understanding. It also affirms the view that the United States is in fact a partner in Israel's policy of nuclear opacity."
Jonathan Peled, a spokesman for the Israeli Embassy in Washington, declined to comment, as did the White House National Security Council.
The secret understanding could undermine the Obama administration's goal of a world without nuclear weapons. In particular, it could impinge on U.S. efforts to bring into force the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty, two agreements that U.S. administrations have argued should apply to Israel in the past. They would ban nuclear tests and the production of material for weapons.
A Senate staffer familiar with the May reaffirmation, who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue, said, "What this means is that the president gave commitments that politically he had no choice but to give regarding Israel's nuclear program. However, it calls into question virtually every part of the president's nonproliferation agenda.The president gave Israel an NPT treaty get out of jail free card."
Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, said the step was less injurious to U.S. policy.
"I think it is par for the course that the two incoming leaders of the United States and Israel would want to clarify previous understandings between their governments on this issue," he said.
However Mr. Kimball added, "I would respectfully disagree with Mr. Netanyahu. President Obama's speech and U.N. Security Council Resolution 1887 apply to all countries irrespective of secret understandings between the U.S. and Israel. A world without nuclear weapons is consistent with Israel's stated goal of achieving a Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction. Obama's message is that the same nonproliferation and disarmament responsibilities should apply to all states and not just a few."
Israeli nuclear doctrine is known as "the long corridor." Under it, Israel would begin to consider nuclear disarmament only after all countries officially at war with it signed peace treaties and all neighboring countries relinquished not only nuclear programs but also chemical and biological arsenals. Israel sees nuclear weapons as an existential guarantee in a hostile environment.
David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, said he hoped the Obama administration did not concede too much to Israel.
"One hopes that the price for such concessions is Israeli agreement to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty and an acceptance of the long-term goal of a Middle East weapons-of-mass-destruction-free zone," he said. "Otherwise, the Obama administration paid too much, given its focus on a world free of nuclear weapons.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/oct/02/president-obama-has-reaffirmed-a-4-decade-old-secr/
Yep! Reported in the press...sounds secret to me! ::)
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Haz
Israel's nuke program is deliberately the worst kept "secret" in the world. What makes it ok is that they never signed the Non-proliferation Treaty. No inspectors, nada, BUT, they can be targeted. The the thing s, unless they are as dumb as Pakistan and test one, we can play Sergeant Shultz. Netanyahu just wanted a "secret" affirmation of that so Iran knows that if they test, Israel will test and we'll handle it like India and Pakistan. A slap on the wrist for a few months and then nothing. The difference being that Israel will have a first strike capability and the Iranians won't. Barring the Guardian Council wanting those 70 virgins, they will hopefully not do it. Of course, this is the Middle East. Who knows how these people think. :-\
FQ13
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That could change, especially after he failed to reward his cronies in Chicago
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Forgive my ignorance please. How can Iran not have "first strike capability"?
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Forgive my ignorance please. How can Iran not have "first strike capability"?
Reverting back to poli-sci geekdom.... First strike capability means you can launch first and eliminate all your enemy's nukes, leaving them with no chance to respond (second strike capability). This is why we and the Sovs had such a stupidly high (30,000 plus) number of warheads. The idea was that even if the enemy launched first and caught you flat footed, you could still deliver a crippiling second strike. This was the game of deterrence, and why we had nuclear subs hiding in the Atlantic and the SAC with bombers in the air 24/7. The idea being that even if the Sovs destroyed us they'd be too dead to enjoy the victory. In the case of Israel, they have better than a hundred nukes and a nuclear sub, Iran will at best have a 5 in the near future and no seaborne assets. Even if Iran launches first, Tehran will be a smoking crater. If Israel launches first, Iran is SOL. Rational nations get this, which is why MADD worked. Here, its the Middle East where WTF is standard operating procedure.
FQ13 who really, really wants energy independance so we can wash our hands of all these crazy bastards
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Under the understanding, the U.S. has not pressured Israel to disclose its nuclear weapons or to sign the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which could require Israel to give up its estimated several hundred nuclear bombs.
From what country do you think Israel acquired these nukes???? Uh, that would be the USA.
Our giving them nukes (decades ago), has been an effective deterrent in that region. Geographically, Israel is surrounded by countries that HATE them.
The only reason all those countries haven't formed an alliance and invaded Israel with millions of troops, is Israel will nuke every single one of those countries.
Israel doesn't have to test their nukes, its all our stuff anyway...
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Quaker, Thanks!
Would it surprise anyone if our government had given Israel hundreds of nukes, and then had to go back and ask. "Uhhhh, what do you have again???"
I "might have heard somewhere" Israel bought I dont know how many F-16 air frames from us, put their own electronics packages and engines in them, then in mok attacks consistantly beat our F-16's in 6 against 1 combat!!! Their military is NO JOKE!!!
twyacht, the really scary thing with all the countries around Israel is that those people often behave more like mad dogs than calculating humans. They're just as likely to attack out of wreckless madness without thought or cosideration of consiquence!
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BM, to add to what FQ posted, Israel "tested" their Nukes in computer simulations, I'm pretty sure they were the first country to use this method as it allowed them to test the equipment while retaining "plausible deniability" about the arsenals existence.
As to the F - 16's Israeli pilots are the most experienced in the world, they get at least twice as much flying time as ours and FAR more actual combat experience, this has been true for more than 30 years. This would give them a big edge even in an inferior aircraft. One thing to remember is that the changes they made reflect the different mind sets of the 2 forces and differences in circumstances and employment methods. I have not kept up with it enough to cite specific examples, but just the Size of the air forces and distance requirements would lead to modifications working for them but not us.
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BM, to add to what FQ posted, Israel "tested" their Nukes in computer simulations, I'm pretty sure they were the first country to use this method as it allowed them to test the equipment while retaining "plausible deniability" about the arsenals existence.
As to the F - 16's Israeli pilots are the most experienced in the world, they get at least twice as much flying time as ours and FAR more actual combat experience, this has been true for more than 30 years. This would give them a big edge even in an inferior aircraft. One thing to remember is that the changes they made reflect the different mind sets of the 2 forces and differences in circumstances and employment methods. I have not kept up with it enough to cite specific examples, but just the Size of the air forces and distance requirements would lead to modifications working for them but not us.
One example? The Isaraeli's actually thought to add the stunning, never before thought of, super high tech and high dollar device that is known as a "rear view mirror" (shh! its classified, don't tell ::)) to their F-16s. This gave them a huge advantage over our guys in simulated dog fights as their pilots weren't suffering whiplash looking over shoulders. (and again ::) ???)
FQ13
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They need to watch the movie " War games" at their conferences. There won't be any winners in a nuclear war.
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They need to watch the movie " War games" at their conferences. There won't be any winners in a nuclear war.
Particularly since they are both down wind from each other. ::) I took a course on Middle Eastern politics in college from an Israeli prof. He told us a story. A frog is lying in the sun on the east bank of the Jordan. A scorpion approached him and asks for a ride on his back to the west bank (if you're muslim, switch banks, the story is the same). The frog says no "If I let you on my back, you will sting me and I'll die".
The scorpion responds, "If I do that I will will drown and die also. Why would I do that"?
After negotiations involving the scorpion leaping onto and off of the the frogs back from the water, a deal is reached. The frog agrees. Halfway across the river ZAP! the scorpion stings him.
With his dying breath, the frog asks, "Why did you do that? Now we both die".
The scorpion, right before drowning says "Hey, what did you expect? This is the Middle East".
The prof could have told us that story the first day of class and sent us home for the semester and saved him, and us a lot of work, because its basically all you need to know about the region. As I said earlier, screw them all, talk amongst yourselves and let us know when you have it sorted out. Too much is enough.
FQ13
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Most empires, and states remember and celebrate their victories...
Israel hold Holy, all their defeats. Since the second burning of the Temple of Jerusalem in 70 C.E., They are "God's Chosen People".
For that looooong historical reason, they are the pit bull of the Middle East, and hell will reign down on those that attack Israel.
They have some of the best pilots, best looking and kick ass female soldiers, and mandatory service for all Israelis.
They are also not as PC as the rest of the world, and are criticized.
Hamas, launches homemade rockets into Israel,...no big deal, they'll get over it.... they're (palestinians are freedom fighters),... BBC News..CNN etc,..
Israel retaliates, and goes in and kicks ass,...
What's The World Response??
Make em' (Israel) stop, make em' stop,..... Boo Hoo, .....
I say,...let em' go.... ;)
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EXCLUSIVE: Obama agrees to keep Israel's nukes secret
So, I guess it would be bad to trust him with the combination to my gun safe. ::) ::) ::)
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EXCLUSIVE: Obama agrees to keep Israel's nukes secret
So, I guess it would be bad to trust him with the combination to my gun safe. ::) ::) ::)
Obama's probably ok, it's Biden you have to worry about. ;D
FQ13
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Obama's probably ok, it's Biden you have to worry about. ;D
FQ13
(http://i296.photobucket.com/albums/mm182/twyacht/joe-biden.jpg)
::)
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ALL the stuff on the middle east was interesting and edjucational. I simply dont know that much about the people and their ways, other than one thing... They've been fighting since creation, have NO desire to stop, and know war as their only way of life... Our government wants to step into the middle of this!?!?!?! ??? ::) ???
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ALL the stuff on the middle east was interesting and edjucational. I simply dont know that much about the people and their ways, other than one thing... They've been fighting since creation, have NO desire to stop, and know war as their only way of life... Our government wants to step into the middle of this!?!?!?! ??? ::) ???
That pretty much sums it up BM.
The most appropriate aspect of FQ's story is that the frog gets stabbed in the back. Corruption and deciet are considered sports in the Middle East.
TW, the rockets that Hamas uses are factory made in Russia, China, Iran, and N Korea.
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ALL the stuff on the middle east was interesting and edjucational. I simply dont know that much about the people and their ways, other than one thing... They've been fighting since creation, have NO desire to stop, and know war as their only way of life... Our government wants to step into the middle of this!?!?!?! ??? ::) ???
That pretty much sums it up BM.
The most appropriate aspect of FQ's story is that the frog gets stabbed in the back. Corruption and deciet are considered sports in the Middle East.
TW, the rockets that Hamas uses are factory made in Russia, China, Iran, and N Korea.
+1
They've been fighting for thousands of years.
If you blasted the area to bits, and if there were any survivors on both sides, the first order of business would be to find a rock to throw at each other.