The Down Range Forum

Member Section => Down Range Cafe => Topic started by: Rastus on November 21, 2021, 01:59:15 PM

Title: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: Rastus on November 21, 2021, 01:59:15 PM
I feel a lot depends on the leftist.  Right now they are "quiet".  I suspect that's because of the elections not going the way they expected.  However, it could be they are quiet because they realized they were "waking up" people.

I think we'll know a lot more by mid-January.  Just how far will these leftist get.  If they pretty much keep getting what they want shortages are a sure thing in my book. 

Regardless, I'll be watching for shortages next year.  If the store shelves have barren areas on Monday not so bad....if still barren on Wednesday time to stock up.  I'm not saying you need to go full blow prepper but it would make sense to stock up to bridge over from shortage to shortage.  However, if the leftist stay in control then shortages will be an everyday occurrence in another year or so as we further descend into 3rd world status.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: billt on November 21, 2021, 02:51:00 PM
I voted YES, only because unless something out of the ordinary happens, we're going to have Biden for the next 3 years. Look at how bad he's screwed everything up in just 9 months. If he dropped dead today, you're still looking at a liberal communist in the White House until 2024. Even if the Democrats lose both the House and the Senate, he'll still be there to veto anything the Republicans come up with to fix this mess.

This never would have happened under Trump. If he was placed into office now, he would have all of this fixed in 60 days. But neither one is reality.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: MikeBjerum on November 21, 2021, 05:09:24 PM
I voted yes, because until our administration changes from their current view people will not go back to full work.  The current trend to supply money and benefits freely for no work is keeping many home.  In some cases it is one parent remaining home with the kids, and in some it is both.

Free Free Free, how can we expect people to go back to work?
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on November 21, 2021, 06:10:00 PM
Until they stop giving hand outs we will have supply chain issues.

Not just the here, but globally.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: MikeBjerum on November 22, 2021, 04:42:11 AM
One area of our shortages will fix itself soon - Maybe six months.

The ships coming in from overseas.  These huge ships sitting off shore attract attention, and people are going ape s**t over it.  They are blaming everyone in the logistics chain for this falling apart.  Reality is that there is only one office responsible for this, and it isn't Biden.

The docks, crane operators, truckers, railroads, etc. are moving record numbers of containers every day.  People say we need to bring in more truckers, but what good would that do?  They are already using every bit of equipment available to put under these containers.

The problem is that production overseas is ramping back up, product is flowing, and some idiot is just letting the ships come.  The managers in charge of scheduling are not controlling the flow.  So, as each ship hits the port, it is rapidly off loaded, and rather than take the time to reload it, it is sent out to make room for the next.  Now we have containers coming in quicker than they can be moved out, and empties are piling up - CONGESTION.  With each passing week this congestion moves further and further out.

Warehouses and stores that are short staffed contribute to the congestion, but the actual backups at the ports hit before these two areas contributed.

Biden and Buttigieg, if you want to fix the issues at the ports, quit paying (either directly or indirectly) warehouse and store workers to stay home, and put pressure on the port managers to get control over the scheduling.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: billt on November 22, 2021, 06:33:23 AM
....... Reality is that there is only one office responsible for this, and it isn't Biden.

......... Biden and Buttigieg, if you want to fix the issues at the ports, quit paying (either directly or indirectly) warehouse and store workers to stay home, and put pressure on the port managers to get control over the scheduling.


? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: tombogan03884 on November 22, 2021, 08:19:28 AM
None of that matters when you do not have enough truck drivers.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: Jim Kennedy-ar154me on November 22, 2021, 09:43:12 AM
None of that matters when you do not have enough truck drivers.

And potential drivers are not being hired or being fired because they don't want the jab.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: tombogan03884 on November 22, 2021, 10:33:56 AM
And potential drivers are not being hired or being fired because they don't want the jab.

Crap.
Where do you think Prime Delivery came from ?
There just are not enough drivers , even including the crappy ones.
Talk to truckers and you will find out it was coming any way do to fuel costs and State and Federal regulations and fees.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on November 22, 2021, 03:03:25 PM
Trucking use to be a decent paying blue collar job.   Its not any more.

Right now its super hard to find any one willing to work, let alone a good worker.  I interviewed one guy that wanted $50/hour for a basic unskilled labor position.   I told him his job was moving and level rock all day.  You have no skills, you are worth $10 at best.  I told him you can leave now or be escorted off the property.

The funny part is if he had not been a dick, about his pay he could have been making 30/ hour right now.  That is assuming he was actually a hard worker.  I start every one off at $15.  After I see how you work/ your skills you will get a raise.  The guy that showed up ready to work had his pay trippled after the 1st hour.   He is now the forming crew foremen( not by choice, he wanted to just be a worker)  he has very little concrete exp, but he understands what square and level is.  He is pretty fast at forming up and is getting faster at tying bar.  The fact that he shows up early, sits in his truck drinking coffee and starts exactly at 7.  I have no complaints.

Then there was the ladies showing the houses.  I had re agents coming out of thr wood work begging for the job.  None of them liked the fat rate to show the models.  They all wanted hourly+ bonus.  I said f that, you get a flat rate and I run things like a high end restaurant.  I make sure you know every thing about the models front to back before I let you work and I quiz you daily.  The 3 I finally got are not complaining one bit.  Infact they are actually shocked at how well things are going and the number of compliments  they are getting for actually know the answers to questions. All the tech questions are getting forwarded to me.  I almost always show up in work wear and my tool belt on.  The buyers are blown away that the builder is actually building.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: MikeBjerum on November 22, 2021, 07:02:38 PM
None of that matters when you do not have enough truck drivers.

They don't have any more equipment than what the current number of drivers is fighting over.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: MikeBjerum on November 22, 2021, 07:22:28 PM

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

I wasn't clear on the transition between the two.  Warehouses and stores aren't the issue YET.

And, the more I attempt to clarify myself the more I confuse it.

Basically, the ports are such a mess, and our warehouses and stores are so empty, that we aren't in heavy need for warehouse type labor YET.  Once we start filling things up, warehousing and store stocking staff will need to hire more.  At that point Biden will need to decide how the stay at homes will heat their homes and feed themselves.  The big issue is that the longer he keeps them on the government tit the harder it will be to wean them.

As far as the ports, the only way to help them is to manage the flow of ships, so every ship that comes in loaded with goods, leaves with its empties, instead of leaving empty.  Next we need a huge increase of chassis, but that would mean spending billions for equipment that would be used for a few months and then be unneeded.  So, we are best just improving the port flow and continuing to work the equipment to its max.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: billt on November 23, 2021, 02:21:51 AM
I'm hearing that tires are now on the list of things suffering from massive shortages. Some guys are complaining the larger tire dealers like Discount, are having a 2 to 4 week delay in many of the more common sizes. With a LOT of the overseas tire companies having all but non existent stock available. It's mostly only domestic made tires that are moving slowly through the supply chain.

Large semi tires are particularly becoming difficult to obtain. This will only compound all of these shortages, because it will cut down on the available trucks that are already in short supply to deliver goods. I have no word on aircraft tires becoming hard to get. But if they get hit, it could cripple the airline industry even further, that already is having problems due to pilots refusing to get vaccinated.

Large airliners burn through tires quickly, with many only lasting for around 500 landings. They can be retreaded several times. But again they need product to perform that function. And the larger jets can have 10, to over 16 tires. A 747-400 takes 18 of them.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: tombogan03884 on November 23, 2021, 09:31:29 AM
I'm hearing that tires are now on the list of things suffering from massive shortages. Some guys are complaining the larger tire dealers like Discount, are having a 2 to 4 week delay in many of the more common sizes. With a LOT of the overseas tire companies having all but non existent stock available. It's mostly only domestic made tires that are moving slowly through the supply chain.

Large semi tires are particularly becoming difficult to obtain. This will only compound all of these shortages, because it will cut down on the available trucks that are already in short supply to deliver goods. I have no word on aircraft tires becoming hard to get. But if they get hit, it could cripple the airline industry even further, that already is having problems due to pilots refusing to get vaccinated.

Large airliners burn through tires quickly, with many only lasting for around 500 landings. They can be retreaded several times. But again they need product to perform that function. And the larger jets can have 10, to over 16 tires. A 747-400 takes 18 of them.

Not surprised.
The largest tire maker in the world is in Holland.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: PegLeg45 on November 23, 2021, 01:59:12 PM
I saw several reports today stating that some financial analysts are saying this Thanksgiving will be the most expensive in US history, with some items at 40-50 % higher than they were two years ago.

And the buffoon-in-chief has the audacity to speak to the public and say things are better.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: Rastus on November 23, 2021, 06:38:00 PM
I saw several reports today stating that some financial analysts are saying this Thanksgiving will be the most expensive in US history, with some items at 40-50 % higher than they were two years ago.

And the buffoon-in-chief has the audacity to speak to the public and say things are better.

The one month...1 month just to be clear...increase in grocery prices for the latest information is 5% average.  Meat, poultry and fish...only up fifteen percent...15%.

Many people want to believe in what tickles their ears so they don't have to think.  Those people should never be allowed to vote...or breed for that matter.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on November 24, 2021, 01:15:16 AM
The one month...1 month just to be clear...increase in grocery prices for the latest information is 5% average.  Meat, poultry and fish...only up fifteen percent...15%.

Many people want to believe in what tickles their ears so they don't have to think.  Those people should never be allowed to vote...or breed for that matter.

Off road diesel has jumped $.45 this month.   
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: Rastus on November 24, 2021, 07:51:10 AM
Yeah.  Food and fuel are omitted from the CPI stats.  I suspect so the politicians can lie with a straight face about inflation.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: billt on November 28, 2021, 11:51:35 PM
Off road diesel has jumped $.45 this month.

Diesel has gone over the $4.50 @ gallon mark at some stations here.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on December 13, 2021, 03:00:33 PM
Just got a call from the trucking company  I am using to bring the icf blocks down from Canada, $400 increase per load.  I will be shopping around, but for now I will have to eat it.   Thats $1200 more ever time they show up.   I get 4 homes per 3 trucks.

Rebar has become  an issue as well.  3 is still out there, but it is hard to find number 5 right now.

I already bought  all the wire for the track.  I am debating  on buying all the pipe.  Thr problem is lack of storage.  I have 8 plates of romex in my garage lol
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: MikeBjerum on December 13, 2021, 08:21:02 PM
$400 per load increase

What were you paying per load?  How much of an increase is this?
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on December 13, 2021, 09:45:57 PM
$1.76/ mile.  The import fees added about $.50.  Its a 700 ish mile trip.  The block weighs very little, its just bulky.  Comes in a flat bed.  The import fee is just under 500.

So its about a 1/3 increase.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: Rastus on December 14, 2021, 08:24:19 AM
CPI (Consumer Price Index) was up 0.8% for the month of November.  That's a 9.6% annual increase, the largest on record for a monthly gain.    https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/)

Proctor and Gamble has already increased their prices by 10% to get ahead of inflation.  Ditto for McDonalds.

In general virtually all companies are saying they cannot continue to eat price increases and have said they are passing on all the additional costs to the consumer.  And others in addition to the two companies mentioned above, have also stated they are going to get in front of inflation.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: MikeBjerum on December 14, 2021, 05:33:12 PM
The second half of your post is the more accurate.  Many have been eating the increase and lowered margins through COVID.  Now that inflation is getting out of control, they are making their moves to cover.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: Rastus on December 14, 2021, 05:39:17 PM
Well, I think it was all accurate...and I'll agree that the impending increases are preponderous in nature.  Overwhelming as a whole.  The wailing and gnashing of teeth will ramp up over the next several months.

Elections have consequences.  Stealing elections moreso...evidently.


 

Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on December 14, 2021, 06:22:04 PM
The second half of your post is the more accurate.  Many have been eating the increase and lowered margins through COVID.  Now that inflation is getting out of control, they are making their moves to cover.

this is most likley what has been going on.  it is thier 1st price increase.  fuel has gone up almost $1 since the 1st shipment.  I know they really like me as i have a check waiting for them when they show up.   so they get paid right then and there.  that way they dont have to wait for the month to get it from the broker.   medium sized trucking company with like 25 trucks.

i wish i could say everything has gone smoothly, but customs has  been a bitch. 

that being said, i have 4 other rucking firms chomping at the bit and beatting thier price by $800 on all 3 trucks.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: tombogan03884 on December 14, 2021, 07:36:07 PM

Elections have consequences.  Stealing elections moreso...evidently.

If that were true Donald Trump would still be President.

On the other hand , they do get to shear the sheep.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: Pathfinder on December 15, 2021, 07:43:53 AM
I'm trying to figure out - what with inflation everywhere - why gas prices, at least here in the Savannah, GA area - are going down. They were up to the $3.50 range, and are back to the $3 range. I'm thinking the fix is in from the feds, but how?
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: tombogan03884 on December 15, 2021, 11:59:08 AM
I'm trying to figure out - what with inflation everywhere - why gas prices, at least here in the Savannah, GA area - are going down. They were up to the $3.50 range, and are back to the $3 range. I'm thinking the fix is in from the feds, but how?

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/dec/9/gop-urges-more-domestic-oil-and-gas-production-off/
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: MikeBjerum on December 15, 2021, 08:57:46 PM
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/dec/9/gop-urges-more-domestic-oil-and-gas-production-off/

One very well kept secret I came across this past weekend concerned our rejoining the Paris Accord.  As soon as Biden put us back in, with our pledges and checkbook, his Administration auctioned off oil drilling leases.  To steal from his mentor in energy "Drill baby Drill".
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on December 16, 2021, 03:25:17 PM
People are stocking up on tp again lol.

Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: tombogan03884 on December 16, 2021, 09:43:36 PM
People are stocking up on tp again lol.

That could mean anything from bad weather to nuclear war. 

Maybe they just know their own cooking.    ;D
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: Rastus on December 19, 2021, 07:08:44 AM
Walmart had food items missing from the shelves that lasted through Tuesday. If it wasn't for Christmas I'd begin to get concerned about not having the shelves stocked.

High profit items like chips and soda stay stocked.....
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on December 19, 2021, 01:33:51 PM
Well as of today delta is completely  out of a kitchen facet 😁

I bought every one in the country from all of thier wholesalers.  I have 2 extra.   Something else to store in my garage that I already don't have room for.  I already have 18 pallets in there now.   I can't double stack them.  :-[

I should be storing them in the barn, but its an hour and 15 mins in the wrong direction. 

Its really sad that I am having to buy standard building materials  in bulk, simply because I may not be able to get them when I need them.  Luckily  cash flow is not an issue,but for most guys it would be.  My investors are very happy. They got thier 1st payment in thier Xmas cards. 3 months a head on payments.  Got some funny calls on that, one said his kid opened the card and he thought the check was a joke so he thru it away. ;D



Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: PegLeg45 on December 19, 2021, 05:44:14 PM
I saw a story a few days ago saying the FTC is investigating Amazon, Walmart and a few others over the "supply shortage" based price hiking.

Won't go anywhere...just like all the other investigations.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on December 19, 2021, 06:07:09 PM
I saw a story a few days ago saying the FTC is investigating Amazon, Walmart and a few others over the "supply shortage" based price hiking.

Won't go anywhere...just like all the other investigations.
I'm sure the investigation will go something like this: I need $1000000 in my re-election campaign fun, can you do that for me? Oh you can congratulations the investigation is closed
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: MikeBjerum on December 19, 2021, 06:24:55 PM
I saw a story a few days ago saying the FTC is investigating Amazon, Walmart and a few others over the "supply shortage" based price hiking.

Won't go anywhere...just like all the other investigations.

Something that these "investigators" are going to need to communicate well to the public is there is a cost to this mess.  A few weeks ago 60 Minutes did a very good job of explaining some of what is happening.  One item brought up by an importer was his product that had made it to the LA ports, but he couldn't get them out.  The container is on the bottom of stacks and blocked in.  He is paying daily storage for the container that he can't retrieve.  This costs $$$$, and somebody is going to pay.

Another item is fuel.  Amazon is 100% delivery.  With a 45% fuel increase, at minimum, since last winter, how do you think that affects them.  TAB just stated how it hit him with the forms he gets out of Canada.

I'm not saying that there isn't some profit taking.  There had better be!  This past 21 months has been hard for businesses dealing with limited supplies and increased expenses.  Now it is time for authorities to give the people a lesson in economics, and that profit is not a dirty word.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: Rastus on December 19, 2021, 07:13:21 PM
I saw a story a few days ago saying the FTC is investigating Amazon, Walmart and a few others over the "supply shortage" based price hiking.

Won't go anywhere...just like all the other investigations.

Well, gee...more hand waving for votes when they really don't mean it (well, the Marxists do..).  Of course you hike prices during scarcity....duh.  The price of hay is up here because of the drought.  Those who don't want to ante' up are taking their stock to auction and so the supply comes back into balance.  Speaking of which...what they need to investigate is the difference in price between what a pound a beef goes for on the hoof and the price at the grocery store....well hell, they never look at that. 

The politicians always hand wave at the source.  Sort of like gasoline...nasty oil companies getting $1.50 a gallon for oil with about 35% of that going to the mineral owner and severance taxes and then it averages anywhere from 15 to 50 cents a barrel to produce it leaving whatever for future capital...but the guys in between are never investigated.  Want to investigate Walmart, et. al., how about when the price of oil or another commodity goes up and the goods price goes up but NEVER down when the commodity goes down...think motor oil, etc. 

Good move Tab.  You inflation protected everything you stocked up on.  We'll soon have Jimmy Carter plus levels of inflation so spending that dollar now when you can makes sense.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on December 19, 2021, 07:34:26 PM
The government  makes the most out of any one on fuel.



Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: MikeBjerum on December 19, 2021, 09:00:14 PM
The government  makes the most out of any one on fuel.

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

You are exposing the Emperor's new clothes.  Al Gore pushed the plan of taking already high fuel taxes, and raise them higher and higher to first, raise move more money to the government, and second to change our habits by pricing our  things out of reach by the common man.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: Jim Kennedy-ar154me on December 20, 2021, 07:41:04 AM
A few weeks ago 60 Minutes did a very good job of explaining some of what is happening.

Well, that is a first!
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: MikeBjerum on December 20, 2021, 06:48:39 PM
Well, that is a first!

I was worried when I saw they were going to address it, but they did a very good job.  They were lax on laying the blame, but they laid out a case that any thinking person could follow.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on December 20, 2021, 07:18:48 PM
There is a real easy fix for the ports, get rid of port authorities.  The government  could f..k up a glass of water.

If you don't have the capcity. Why are you letting ships weight?   If yiu give a cut off date for ships to sail, saying any whip that left after that date will be denied  entry  into the us until the back log is cleared.  It would fix the problem in a hurry.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: MikeBjerum on December 20, 2021, 07:37:03 PM
This is the problem.  These ships came our way faster than the ports could possibly handle them.  The Port Manager did not control the port.  They ran the ships in as fast as possible, without considering that there is more to logistics than just unloading the ships - Like reloading with export goods and/or empty containers destined for other nations, and getting the containers moved around and out of the port.

We have a warehouse manager that I have nicknamed 40K.  This man can put 40,000# in trucks all day long.  It seldom makes any sense, but they are loaded.  We need to watch him and correct often.  He will get so excited about our local trucks that he ignores that trucks that need to be loaded and down the road for a 500 mile trip and meet a set appointment.  This rush for the locals will have him putting 6K in a 12K truck, sending it through a neighborhood, sand ending another 4K in a 12K truck to the same place three hours later.

This is the mentality of the Port Manager.  No sense of what is important.  They see loaded ships backed up as a priority, and forget they have no place to put the containers or equipment to move them.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: tombogan03884 on December 20, 2021, 09:30:59 PM
I was worried when I saw they were going to address it, but they did a very good job.  They were lax on laying the blame, but they laid out a case that any thinking person could follow.

Wasn't that where Jon Stossel started out ?
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: MikeBjerum on December 21, 2021, 05:09:11 PM
Wasn't that where Jon Stossel started out ?

No - 20/20 was his first major move.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: tombogan03884 on December 21, 2021, 06:38:12 PM
No - 20/20 was his first major move.

Seeing his "gun Control" video was a very pleasant surprise.
The only other good one was Penn and Teller's "Bullshit".
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on December 22, 2021, 01:11:58 AM
He is one of the few journalists  out there that are actually journalists rather that propaganda  distribution agents.

He is suing face book right now.... what a shock, a guy calling out bs is getting sensored
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on December 29, 2021, 01:26:51 PM
Found the new shortage.  Woven non asphalt moisture  barrier( aka tar paper, but no tar)

Supposed to get 2 pallets new week... this may just be a weather related issue, but who knows these days.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on January 09, 2022, 04:13:04 PM
The biggest shortage  of all is people that are skilled...

Still not found a painter that is not better than a "brush hand".  Fired 3 drywall crews already.  Its icf, the walls are way flater than any studed wall... is it too much to ask to not have huge gaps everywhere  and cut outs that have to be fixed by the tapers around the outlets?

So far me/ crew are doing everything, but the electrical, roofing, hvac, taping and carpet.  Out of those, only the tapers are up to my standards.   Every one else I have to check their work to make sure its right.   >:(  so far the hvac guy is next on the hit list... 


I am basically doing all the finish work with a helper or 2. It is slowing us way down.

Oh yeah, my patience for dealing with incompetence  is in very short supply. 
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: Rastus on January 09, 2022, 10:23:05 PM
It could be worse.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on January 10, 2022, 03:31:50 AM
It could be worse.

You have seen  the pics. been taking the misses car to work.  Rental cars are not available.  I even went to the Ford dealer and tried to buy new, but they did not have what I wanted in stock and there was none with in 500 miles.    Used trucks are even harder to come by.  I found 1 I like, but they want more than they paid for it new.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: MikeBjerum on January 11, 2022, 02:12:55 PM
You have seen  the pics. been taking the misses car to work.  Rental cars are not available.  I even went to the Ford dealer and tried to buy new, but they did not have what I wanted in stock and there was none with in 500 miles.    Used trucks are even harder to come by.  I found 1 I like, but they want more than they paid for it new.

Fifteen months ago I purchased a new 2020 Traverse for my wife, and last September I bought a new 2022 Equinox for myself.  Owner of the dealership called me last week with an offer.  I can up grade to brand new on either or both for zero cost.  Only out of pocket to the dealership would be for better quipped than we have on these two.  Of course, the State gets involved with their transfer fees, and since Pritzker decided to punish the rich, there would be sales tax*.  I decided not to do it, but that is how tough used is to come by and why used costs more than new.

* In Illinois trading cars isn't as simple as just paying tax on the difference.  If you trade is worth more than $10K, you pay sales tax on all above $10K.  You also pay sales tax on all program discounts and redemption of perks from stores (Costco, Sams, etc.) or credit card dollars (your bonus on your GM Card that you redeem).

Except for a Yamaha 750 Special that I bought new in April 1979, these are the first new vehicles I have ever bought and owned.  I guess I just don't have enough of a new car bug in me.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on January 20, 2022, 12:16:29 PM
All the green leafy veggies locally are gone, bulk, pre packaged, it does not matter.   I even went into Wal-Mart to find some, they are out too.  I have also heard there is am instant noodle shortage. The local winco has the isle they normally have them in lined with a single depth row of stock.  To make the shelf look full, but its not. 20' of 5 shelf with cartons of stock still looks pretty damn empty.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: Rastus on January 22, 2022, 11:56:12 AM
All the green leafy veggies locally are gone, bulk, pre packaged, it does not matter.   I even went into Wal-Mart to find some, they are out too.  I have also heard there is am instant noodle shortage. The local winco has the isle they normally have them in lined with a single depth row of stock.  To make the shelf look full, but its not. 20' of 5 shelf with cartons of stock still looks pretty damn empty.

So...assuming this was Wednesday or Thursday when you posted that's to me shaping up as a "real" shortage that portends to an extended shortage of those items and possibly others.  I probably need to go out and get fertilizer and such for my garden now to make certain I have what is needed.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on January 22, 2022, 12:36:00 PM
I think it was mainly due to weather.  There were nasty storms her an in the ca central valley( were a good chunk of the nation's produce is grown) 

I should call my brother.  He does food packing scales he would know who is down and who is operating/ why.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: Rastus on January 22, 2022, 05:48:32 PM
That would be a very interesting datapoint.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: Rastus on February 01, 2022, 08:01:18 AM
Anhydrous ammonia used as nitrogen fertilizer has jumped up from around $500 to $1,500 per ton.  There is going to be a lot of conversion of farm cropland from corn to soybeans this year if that price holds (much like 2007-2008).  Provided conversion to soybeans happens (less nitrogen needed) we'll see corn prices shoot up.

Take a look at what's in your pantry and see how many items have corn in them.  So..on top of inflation we may well see a price increase on top. 

Provided of course that the farmers don't just decide to allow yields to fall way back which and drop most of the fertilizer which would really affect the harvest.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on February 01, 2022, 10:31:06 AM
Don't forget meat prices  corn is fed to just about every thing.

Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: Rastus on February 01, 2022, 06:48:08 PM
Don't forget meat prices  corn is fed to just about every thing.

Absolutely.  I'll be a buyer of calves this year because they will be cheap.  I picked up some fertilizer and I'll be planting my own feed corn this year.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: MikeBjerum on February 04, 2022, 05:05:03 AM
Don't forget meat prices  corn is fed to just about every thing.

The Commodities Market doesn't care.  In a diversified farm you seldom make money across the board.  When grain is down, you make money by running it through livestock.  When grain price is up, you lose money by running it through livestock.  Feeders will hurt, because prices don't rise to the same levels of grain.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on February 11, 2022, 10:42:32 AM
new shortage... just with 1 brand, but the entire state of ut, id co and nv are sold out of it.



some sob, bought it all   ;D



I am loving my taping crew, the only guys i have seen in utah that do good work and do it fast.    i mean like CA, union taping pace... oh wait they are from the bay area painters and tapers union.  they moved her about 10 years ago and set up shop.   they say the same thing i do, the tradesmen her are slow.  made them happy when the 3rd flat bed semi showed up with enough mud to finish the tract and then some.


PS its amazing what calling a VP for the entire western US for a major building material supplier at home will do.   ;D

its not what you know, its who.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: Rastus on February 22, 2022, 11:29:36 AM
Watch your chicken prices.  There's a new bird flu and they are killing off flocks to prevent the spread of the bird flu.  At least, that's the reason given for killing them off.

Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: alfsauve on February 22, 2022, 05:35:47 PM
The struggle is real here in the first world.    Revolution flea/tick/heart medicine is seriously backlogged. 

Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: MikeBjerum on February 22, 2022, 10:32:29 PM
Poultry prices are already so high that even if they kill birds off they can't raise prices more.  I have a poll going at work on when we will hit $3 bonless skinless breasts.  Getting close.  Today she raised them to $2.79, and a few hours after that the Urner Barry came out up, again.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: billt on February 22, 2022, 11:27:54 PM
The struggle is real here in the first world.    Revolution flea/tick/heart medicine is seriously backlogged.

I went to Wal-Mart yesterday, and most of the dog food was missing from the shelves. Luckily my little guy eats that Cesar that comes in those little tubs. I found a couple of 12 packs that should last a little over a week. He eats 2 tubs a day.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on February 23, 2022, 08:18:45 AM
Temps in the double digits st 7 am lol
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: Rastus on February 23, 2022, 08:22:06 AM
19 degrees here.  Snow is headed this way to arrive in a couple of hours according to the forecast.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: tombogan03884 on February 23, 2022, 10:29:42 AM
The struggle is real here in the first world.    Revolution flea/tick/heart medicine is seriously backlogged.

NO AVACADO'S , SHIT'S GETTING REAL  ! ! !       :o     :'(         ;D
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: alfsauve on February 23, 2022, 05:41:25 PM
74 in the ATL today.   The puppies and I worked on outdoor projects in shorts and t-shirt.  Well I was in the shorts and t-shirt the puppies just wore whatever..
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: Rastus on February 26, 2022, 07:59:59 AM
Three days of ice with two power outages.  The entire area is a skating rink right now. 
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on February 26, 2022, 02:03:20 PM
people showing up to work.  fired 2 friday
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: Rastus on February 26, 2022, 07:18:00 PM
I tried to drive out today.  No joy.  Tomorrow it's supposed to get to 46 so perhaps I can make it out then.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on February 26, 2022, 08:57:52 PM
I tried to drive out today.  No joy.  Tomorrow it's supposed to get to 46 so perhaps I can make it out then.

I have been in a hole in the ground starting at 7 am, until  for the last 3 days... the high has been 22
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: tombogan03884 on February 27, 2022, 07:53:27 AM
I have been in a hole in the ground starting at 7 am, until  for the last 3 days... the high has been 22

Well, at least you're out of the wind .    ;D
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on February 27, 2022, 09:22:41 AM
Well, at least you're out of the wind .    ;D
  this was the city wanted a separator box... only asked for it after everything was built and open....
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: Rastus on February 27, 2022, 09:27:44 AM
Tell the city you are putting the cost on the homeowner's association so that they can be "friends" with the city.
 8)
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on February 27, 2022, 01:02:14 PM
No hoa, I would never build a track with an hour.

It does not matter where you go in this country, incompetence  in government is rampant.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on March 04, 2022, 07:43:25 PM
Rastus has seen the pics, its a big ass hole in the ground and a very expensive concrete box... did I mention the cranes ( yes with an s)were 12k/hour... and they were there for 8 hours.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: Rastus on March 05, 2022, 07:00:46 AM
If that hole was any bigger you could hide and ICBM in it.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: tombogan03884 on March 05, 2022, 08:13:04 AM
We have to BAN these unsightly pit mines !

That's just TAB's cellar hole.

Oh.
Never mind .

 ;D
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: Rastus on March 05, 2022, 08:10:12 PM
Skip the first two minutes of commercials.



Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on March 05, 2022, 09:13:40 PM
We have to BAN these unsightly pit mines !

That's just TAB's cellar hole.

Oh.
Never mind .

 ;D

when i was at the bottom of the hole, i am pretty sure it was an ass hole
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on March 12, 2022, 11:04:02 AM
Smoke detector batteries.  Can't find them to save my life.  Yes they are special.  You can use regular  9 volts, but don't expect more than a year or two.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: MikeBjerum on March 12, 2022, 06:20:11 PM
Smoke detector batteries.  Can't find them to save my life.  Yes they are special.  You can use regular  9 volts, but don't expect more than a year or two.

What happened to replacing your batteries with the clock changes?
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: tombogan03884 on March 13, 2022, 08:42:07 AM
What happened to replacing your batteries with the clock changes?

I thought that was for optics.    ;D
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on March 13, 2022, 09:08:59 AM
What happened to replacing your batteries with the clock changes?

You can do that, or you can spend a dollar more and only do it once in a decade.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: MikeBjerum on March 13, 2022, 01:10:42 PM
I thought that was for optics.    ;D

Yours last that long???
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: tombogan03884 on March 14, 2022, 01:35:09 PM
Yours last that long???

No.   
That's why they need checked.   ;D

It's why I avoided them so long.
I believe that batteries work like farmers, sun up, till sun down.    ;D
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: Pathfinder on March 18, 2022, 09:15:29 AM
Skip the first two minutes of commercials.



Been watching this guy since you put me onto him, Rastus, thank you for that. Very interesting, very insightful, and an excellent use of the technology publicly available. Forward Observer is another one (ex-G2/S2 and CIA guys).
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: Rastus on June 26, 2022, 06:31:51 AM
Been watching this guy since you put me onto him, Rastus, thank you for that. Very interesting, very insightful, and an excellent use of the technology publicly available. Forward Observer is another one (ex-G2/S2 and CIA guys).

Good.  It's too much repetition for me to watch every sitrep he produces but there is usually something new and insightful in each one.  Now that he's added military ship locations it is, for me, a better product.

I know the Monkey references the guys at Forward Observer.  I'll check them out on youtubey this week.
Title: Re: S H O R T A G E S
Post by: TAB on June 26, 2022, 07:58:45 AM
Locally concrete... the local cement plant had a major failure.  Trucking cement in from out of state.  No eta on when it will be back up and running.