The Down Range Forum

Member Section => Down Range Cafe => Topic started by: TAB on September 10, 2022, 06:35:18 AM

Title: Everything i want...
Post by: TAB on September 10, 2022, 06:35:18 AM
is out of stock...

It does not matter what it is... guns/parts, archery stuff, food, tools....  its getting annoying
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: BAC on September 10, 2022, 07:30:19 AM
Trump’s fault
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: alfsauve on September 10, 2022, 08:52:16 AM
Not a new phenom.  A basic built in oven was 16 months out.  LazyBoys 6 months.

Where it gets ridiculous is small parts.
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: MikeBjerum on September 10, 2022, 03:58:02 PM
We keep hearing about record low unemployment.  If we have such low unemployment, why can't we get our economy flying again, and products back on the shelves?  Maybe the rest of the story needs to be told.

Workforce - The numbers participating in the American Workforce

66.4% - January 2007

62.8% - January 2017 (Trump takes the helm)

63.4% - January 2020
60.2% - April 2020 - The bottom of the COVID drop off

61.4% - January 2021 (Biden takes the helm)

62.4% - Today

There is a slew of people not going back to work, regardless of what your geriatric leader says.  Trump had us up to 63.4%, and Biden's great victories can't even finish the recovery Trump started.

Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: Rastus on September 10, 2022, 05:24:29 PM
We're going to start hearing more about less food in the coming months.  We've just about finished up 2021's harvest and 2022's isn't looking great.  No one should starve here in the US, but worldwide it may get very ugly soon. 

Food is a logistics issue this year....next year it's a supply issue.  Waiting on something that's not going to be there will be a shock.

Mike, how is the supply for the meat industry looking?

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/list-33-things-we-know-about-coming-food-shortages (https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/list-33-things-we-know-about-coming-food-shortages)
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: TAB on September 10, 2022, 10:31:01 PM
Meat is going to be an issue next year.  I wonder what will happen to wild game.  Will hunting pressure increase, will poaching increase?

Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: Rastus on September 11, 2022, 09:08:56 AM
Meat will be, I believe, an issue on price and availability.  Mike can clue us in on that.  Supposing it is, there will be some hunting/poaching pressure increase. 

I don't think city/suburb folk will focus on wild game.  Those who live out further may.  If you have a few head of cattle then hunting/poaching won't be high on the list but if you are in the country without livestock then those will be the people most likely to increase hunting/poaching.   

You are right, there will be an uptick in hunting/poaching.  I don't think it will be a groundswell of increased hunting/poaching because it won't be easy and so long as there are beans and rice, etc., most people will stay at home. 
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: TAB on September 11, 2022, 12:59:11 PM
I have friends that have 50+ chickens.  They are in a small town that is not far from a big liberal hell hole.   I would be worried they will have to defend them from people.

I can see that being an issue if meat becomes a real problem.

Me I will just harvest a few elk/deer/bores and know we will be fine
  Granted I can afford  to pay alot, I just don't.  Hell I won't even pay the $10/ lb now for a sirloin  steak.
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: Rastus on September 11, 2022, 01:57:04 PM
If the city folk start leaving the city to forage for food that may work but I would think only for a short period of time.  That behavior would have to be driven by more than an absence of meat...they'll have to be looking for any food to stay alive. 

They'll have to stay out of the city once they go foraging...going in and out will attract attention and they won't be able to keep what they bring back because someone they live with in the city will take it from them.  So..., then they need a place to stay out of the city...good luck with that.  It may work once or twice...but the price beyond that will probably get way high.  If it's that bad there won't be enough gas or diesel either.  So transportation will be an issue. 

I did read the high estimate on ground beef is $50/pound.  I think that is outrageously high.  If it does get that high I will be light several head of cattle.....   ;D

Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: TAB on September 11, 2022, 03:38:08 PM
That will kill off so many businesses
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: Rastus on September 11, 2022, 05:38:09 PM
$50 ground beef.  Yeah, that will be the end of McDonalds, etc.
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: MikeBjerum on September 11, 2022, 09:03:59 PM
We're going to start hearing more about less food in the coming months.  We've just about finished up 2021's harvest and 2022's isn't looking great.  No one should starve here in the US, but worldwide it may get very ugly soon. 

Food is a logistics issue this year....next year it's a supply issue.  Waiting on something that's not going to be there will be a shock.

Mike, how is the supply for the meat industry looking?

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/list-33-things-we-know-about-coming-food-shortages (https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/list-33-things-we-know-about-coming-food-shortages)

So far things are good and looking good.  Poultry prices are still high.  Two years ago the long term pricing for boneless skinless breasts we were selling was $0.90 - $1.05.  We went as high as $3.50, but now we are back down to $1.89.  Labor is the biggest issue, and the poultry industry able to manipulate flock sizes quickly to adapt quickly.  Pork and beef are very close to their historical norms.  Biggest issue here again is labor.  Plants are struggling to keep staffing and flow moving smoothly.  Every Saturday we pick up a load of inside skirt that loads on Friday.  The driver goes in at 2 or 3 am, grabs the trailer and is back in Chicago by 1300.  This week he didn't leave the plant until 1730 on Saturday.  All due to labor shortage on the cutting line.

All this translates to there will be meat available on some level for anyone who wants it.  When COVID hit the plants went down, but those who can dress an animal themself or have access to someone who can bought meat on the hoof at bargain pricing.

Seriously though, take inventory of your land and skills.  Plant a Victory Garden.  Raise some chickens for meat and eggs.  If you have some acres plant dry edible beans, wheat, oats, #2 yellow corn, etc..  Goats!  Dairy goats are the most efficient dairy animal, they take minimal space, and their milk is tolerable for almost everyone. 

Remember, we no longer have a grain reserve, and we run out of our grains every year at harvest time.  The days of having one, two even three years of grain in reserve went away in the late 80's. The nation's food reserve is in your pantry and root cellar.
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: MikeBjerum on September 11, 2022, 09:16:25 PM
$50 ground beef.  Yeah, that will be the end of McDonalds, etc.

I don't see anything near this extreme happening.  Most grinds are made with trim product - Lean from sizing and cleaning up primal cuts, with close trim fat added for desired blend.  Grinds can be made with minimal labor, so when a plant has a major problem with workforce for cut and trim they can easily by-pass the meat to de-boning and grinding.

When labor is tight the more labor needed for a primal, the quicker it will be deleted from the supply chain.
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: billt on September 13, 2022, 01:33:45 AM
I've been trying to get a double oven electric range for the last 2 years. It's no better now, than it was then. We've replaced every appliance in the house since we moved in 3 years ago. But still can't find a decent range.
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: Rastus on September 13, 2022, 07:38:31 PM
I think it’s going to get worse from here. Maybe not. But I think so. I base this on the shipments from China to the US And the fact that Amazon is scaling back. I believe the scaling back reflects the reduced exports of China into the US. They are doing that on purpose I’m sure.
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: TAB on September 14, 2022, 07:47:31 AM
...  the bow sight i want, is 5-7 months back ordered.  Went a head and put the deposit  down.  Hopefully I get it before next season
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: J. Kennedy-ar154me on September 14, 2022, 08:12:13 AM
I think it’s going to get worse from here. Maybe not. But I think so. I base this on the shipments from China to the US And the fact that Amazon is scaling back. I believe the scaling back reflects the reduced exports of China into the US. They are doing that on purpose I’m sure.

On one hand, I like the idea of importing LESS from China as we really need to become much more self-sufficient. On the other hand, I am not looking forward to the increased cost of everything on top of our ongoing inflation.

Hang on buttercup. The ride is going to get interesting!
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: Rastus on September 14, 2022, 06:09:02 PM
I like that idea as well.  Trump was developing new sources to replace Chinese made stuff....and then they took him out of the game. 

It is going to get bumpy and expensive...especially with the losers the swamp put in there to run things.  Guns and butter guys...you gotta have guns and butter.  With this bunch we're not going to have either.
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: MikeBjerum on September 14, 2022, 06:38:21 PM
I like that idea as well.  Trump was developing new sources to replace Chinese made stuff....and then they took him out of the game. 

It is going to get bumpy and expensive...especially with the losers the swamp put in there to run things.  Guns and butter guys...you gotta have guns and butter.  With this bunch we're not going to have either.

Notice that Joe is trying to continue the Trump "bring it home" move without making it look that way?
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: alfsauve on September 19, 2022, 11:02:47 AM
I have an insider in the fast food biz.   He's warning of an upcoming shortage of turkey this fall.   Miss Kitty and I are going the ham route for Thanksgiving.
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: MikeBjerum on September 19, 2022, 06:41:55 PM
Go buy your turkey now.  It is the same one that will be there in November.
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: Rastus on September 20, 2022, 07:15:34 PM
Go buy your turkey now.  It is the same one that will be there in November.

I'm confused (not at all unusual these days).  Are you saying there will be plenty of turkeys for Thanksgiving or buy it now and it will be there in November?

Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: billt on September 20, 2022, 11:57:17 PM
I hate turkey. (The bird, not the country. They make nice guns). She's making homemade pizza instead.
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: BAC on September 21, 2022, 12:14:33 AM
I hate turkey. (The bird, not the country. They make nice guns). She's making homemade pizza instead.

I like the idea of turkey, however the reality of turkey rarely lives up to the idea, which often leaves us with dry turkey.
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: Rastus on September 21, 2022, 10:08:00 AM
I like the idea of turkey, however the reality of turkey rarely lives up to the idea, which often leaves us with dry turkey.

Have you guys ever tried frying a turkey?  First you inject them with spices and then you fry.  We've never had anything near dry when we do this.

However...I prefer a smoked turkey.  The family likes fried which is very good, but I prefer smoked turkey.
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: billt on September 21, 2022, 10:10:15 AM
Smoked or fried.... Anything but baked. Baking dries the hell out of the meat.
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: alfsauve on September 21, 2022, 11:18:36 AM
Smoked or fried.... Anything but baked. Baking dries the hell out of the meat.

Ah we've used bags since they were invented, we're that old.   All the moisture stays in and the gravy is to die for.
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: Rastus on September 21, 2022, 03:18:38 PM
Gravy.  That's the tradeoff between baked and either smoked or fried. 

A heckuva choice.
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: BAC on September 21, 2022, 04:54:18 PM
We’ve had good luck with the bags.  Never had smoked or fried.
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: PegLeg45 on September 22, 2022, 01:38:37 PM
Have you guys ever tried frying a turkey?  First you inject them with spices and then you fry.  We've never had anything near dry when we do this.

However...I prefer a smoked turkey.  The family likes fried which is very good, but I prefer smoked turkey.

Been frying turkeys for 25 years.
I switched to an oil-free outdoor fryer...... basically a large air frying pot.
I got tired of frying a $10 turkey in $75 worth of oil, and you can do ribs, roasts and most anything else in it too if it'll fit.  ;D

Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: MikeBjerum on October 01, 2022, 09:29:57 PM
I'm confused (not at all unusual these days).  Are you saying there will be plenty of turkeys for Thanksgiving or buy it now and it will be there in November?

I have not read anything about a turkey shortage this year.  However, if you are concerned about supply, buy it now.  If you wait there is a good chance you will pick up one at a reduced price, because stores use the bird as a loss leader.
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: Rastus on November 04, 2022, 06:30:21 AM
We’ve had good luck with the bags.  Never had smoked or fried.

You should consider either smoked or fried.  Peg likes the air frying....me not so much for anything.

I'm old and my attention span is short for any tasks where I'd prefer to be doing something else.  Tending a smoker now and again fits that model.  Other than a wild bird I smoked once, the Greenberg Smoked Turkey's are by far the best.
https://www.gobblegobble.com/view/home (https://www.gobblegobble.com/view/home)



 
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: Rastus on November 13, 2022, 07:48:15 AM
I have not read anything about a turkey shortage this year.  However, if you are concerned about supply, buy it now.  If you wait there is a good chance you will pick up one at a reduced price, because stores use the bird as a loss leader.

Picked up an 8 and an 8-1/2 lb bird.  To be fried.
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: alfsauve on November 13, 2022, 08:16:24 AM
Got a 14# yesterday from Publix for $7
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: TAB on November 13, 2022, 09:15:20 AM
I got a 13 lb 4 oz....

With a bow yesterday.

You guys actually buy turkeys?


Ok I admit my tag cost more than a super market bird.
Title: Re: Everything i want...
Post by: MikeBjerum on November 13, 2022, 04:13:41 PM
Got a 14# yesterday from Publix for $7

We're coming up on loss leader time.  Watching for the free or near free with minimum purchase.