Are We Coming Into A "Gun Glut"?

[billt]

With an ammo glut soon to follow? I'm thinking that is a very good possibility. I'm seeing a lot of guns available that were "allocated" in the past. For example Colt and Springfield Armory 1911's are everywhere, and in good numbers. Even some of the more hard to find models. Davidson's is showing them in great abundance. The same with Springfield M1-A rifles. All the models are available in good numbers as well. Browning Buck Mark pistols are in good supply in most every shop I've been in recently.

Ammo is really coming back around here. Even .22 LR prices and availability is coming back. 9 MM and .45 ACP is sagging the shelves at my local Cabela's. All at good prices which appear to be steadily dropping. Magazines are everywhere as well. Glock, AR-15, AR-10, AK, all Hi-Caps in most every model are no longer a witch hunt to find.

About the only thing that is still scarce, but is showing improvement in availability is powder. Also some brass is still hard to come by. I'm thinking by the time the weather cools off this Fall, we should be getting back to a real sense of normal. It's about time. What's it been, close to 3 years now? People are either caught up, or else out of money. Look for some really good buys next spring.

[MikeBjerum]

I don't see a gun glut coming, but I do fear a major business shift.  Over recent years we have seen gun companies gobbled up by investment firms or consolidated with other gun companies. 

The days of common sense business are gone, and it is all about return on investment.  In the past money was made by providing a good or service for the long haul.  Today it is all about ROI in the short term.  We used to look at the year, but focus on the decade.  Today businesses are changed or closed over a poor mid quarter forecast report.

A generation or two ago these gun companies would have been paying off debt, updating facilities and equipment, rewarding loyal employees, celebrating with customers, and putting money in savings for the coming lean years.  Today, every thing has been divided up between investors, and the cupboard will be bare when they go looking for reserves the first slim quarter.

Have you read Sheriff Wilson's open letter to Colt?

[Hazcat]

I don't see a gun glut coming, but I do fear a major business shift.  Over recent years we have seen gun companies gobbled up by investment firms or consolidated with other gun companies. 

The days of common sense business are gone, and it is all about return on investment.  In the past money was made by providing a good or service for the long haul.  Today it is all about ROI in the short term.  We used to look at the year, but focus on the decade.  Today businesses are changed or closed over a poor mid quarter forecast report.

A generation or two ago these gun companies would have been paying off debt, updating facilities and equipment, rewarding loyal employees, celebrating with customers, and putting money in savings for the coming lean years.  Today, every thing has been divided up between investors, and the cupboard will be bare when they go looking for reserves the first slim quarter.

Have you read Sheriff Wilson's open letter to Colt?

Nope, got a link?

[MikeBjerum]

http://sheriffjimwilson.com/2014/08/18/open-letter-to-the-board-of-directors-at-colt-firearms/

[Hazcat]

Thx

[Sponsor]

[billt]

Colt's story is nothing new. They've been on the verge of bankruptcy for literally decades. If it weren't for their government contracts, Colt would have gone belly up years ago. They can't make money on a bet. And they are not alone. Many firearms companies cannot turn a steady profit. Look at High Standard, Ithaca Gun, and more recently Remington Arms.

All made and sold great guns. They just can't seem to turn a steady buck doing it. Even Smith & Wesson was on the verge of financial collapse when it was owned by Tompkins PLC, and headed up by Ed Shultz. It took Safe-T-Hammer's near bargain purchase of it to turn it around into profitability once again.

It's not easy to make money in the gun business. Success stories like Ruger and Bushmaster are few and far between.

[kmitch200]

I DO see a gun glut coming. The AR market is so soft now it's unreal compared to what was around a year ago. 
CCW size guns are going to reach saturation levels pretty soon IMHO. Ammo is showing up on shelves.
(billt wasn't kidding about Cabela's)

Powder can't be too far behind....I hope. (not that I really need any, I hoarded!)

[jaybet]

Part of the problem is that guns generally are one of the best crafted items in the US. They last forever so you only need one of each.
Let's hope they don't get the idea to go the way of Detroit and start making them so they wear out in 5 years.

[alfsauve]

... They last forever so you only need one of each.

I'm Sorry?  WHAT?  Blasphemer!

[billt]

Another thing to remember is this last shortage changed peoples buying habits. Shooters and reloaders who used to buy 1 pound of powder, started buying 8 pound containers. Guys who would buy a brick of .22's started buying 5,000 round cases of it before it all disappeared. Primers were purchased, (hoarded), in much the same way. They're becoming available again.

When the manufacturers finally get caught up, shooters are going to be shooting off of much larger stockpiles than they have ever been. If many of them stockpiled at all. It's also much the same with Hi-Cap magazines. When this stuff starts enjoying good availability once again, it's going to take really dirt cheap prices to get these same people to start buying once again.

They aren't going to be afraid anymore with Hussein on his way out, and they'll have so much stockpiled they just won't see a need to run out and buy anymore. Don't forget, we've lived in this panic for over 2 straight years now. And it started after the 2008 shortage finally started to come to an end. It's almost hard to think back to a time when something in this sport wasn't in short supply.