The Down Range Forum
Member Section => Down Range Cafe => Topic started by: Rastus on January 13, 2012, 07:15:39 PM
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I took a rifle class today. I was struck by an interesting observation by the instructor. We have the BHO election, Mayan 2012 concern, economic concerns and the general direction of the country concerns to ponder. He thinks it's lining up to be a perfect storm in ammo prices like around the last election.
I dunno. What do you think? We aren't expending as much ammo as we were across the pond as last election cycle. I think he has a point and we'll see some tightening and price increases. These are uncertain times concerning where the nation is headed.
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bho won't do anything to rile up gun owners before the election. As of the day after, all bets are off.
Your point about no longer shooting so much off in the sandbox made me think - all of the ammo manufacturers have ramped up seriously to meet demand with civilian buyers and .mil fighting 2 separate conflicts. Granted, A'stan will still suck up some of the production, but I am certain bho's announcement of the drawdown took the manufacturers somewhat by surprise. OK, so .mil keeps buying for a while to "replenish stocks" or whatever it is they do, but then what. If .gov keeps buying ammo, what is that saying to the rest of us?
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With the lowering of military activity we should see supplies increase and prices stabilize and possibly go down. However, there are the emotions of Pres. BHO and the preparation in case he remains in office, and the possibility of a swing in other offices as well.
Just like the emotional investor will drive markets up and down for no good reason, I expect to see ammunition and PIF prices increase.
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I think prices will increase though not as radically as they did the last wild cycle. Now and the next several months may be a good time to stock up. We've seen a decrease from historic highs and I think that will continue a couple more months. I sold a couple of 4-wheelers so I'm planning on buying so ammo over the next couple of months. That's my strategy.
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Prices are up already! Ammo here is higher at 43 bucks for 100 rounds of WWB .45 ACP and 13-15 bucks for 50 rnds Federal or WWB 9mm. Will that go down? Doubtful! Will it get worse? Probable! There is plenty available though!
I'm broke, I'm f*#ked anyway! I buy good SD ammo when I can! The rest will have to wait...I'm not shooting anything at this point.
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Man, not again. Why can't all these idiots who don't know which is the dangerous end of the thing leave all the primers to somebody like me who knows how to use 'em?
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m58 wrote:
...BHO and the preparation in case he remains in office...
or preparation in case he isn't re-elected in November.....
knowhatI'msayin?
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in a similar vein I wonder if now would also be a good time to stock up on AR lowers??
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We're running with most of you think that prices are going up. Ya'll did notice the timing on the poll, right? I attempted to not make this poll one that leads you to an answer the way I do every now and then. ;D
Lowers may not be a bad idea.
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An ad this week had Remington 9mm (with brass brass not that Wolf or Bear stuff) for $22/100. That's getting down to prices of 10 years ago.
I thinking prices will continue to fall slightly through the beginning of next fall's hunting season. If bHO wins the elections then all bets are off after that.
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I think prices are going up for a couple of reasons.
One reason is the falling value of the dollar. Real inflation is around 8-10% so that dictates an increase in manufacturing prices. Odamna doesn't have the foggiest notion of economic realities or how to influence them (except to worsen the impact) so inflation will continue to be a major and increasing problem.
The second reason is the general insecurity of the nation as a whole. What with the looney left generally, and the OWS loonies specifically, right-thinking Americans are correct to be concerned. One way to alleviate that concern is to stockpile ammo. Contrary to what the current resident thinks, increased demand mandates higher prices.
And...
One can never have too many AR lowers (or uppers, either).
Crusader
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Hi;
I collect brass at ranges in my area. After the last shortage of ammo at the stores I believe that the manufactures were just trying to get stuff on the shelves for us shooters and in that process the quality/reliability of that ammo was in doubt. I was picking up a lot of unfired but primer struck casings off the ground from the same box of ammo and same pistol firing it.
If there is a shortage again in the future, I hope that the ammo stays pre-shortage quality.
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I think prices are going up for a couple of reasons.
One reason is the falling value of the dollar. Real inflation is around 8-10% so that dictates an increase in manufacturing prices. Odamna doesn't have the foggiest notion of economic realities or how to influence them (except to worsen the impact) so inflation will continue to be a major and increasing problem.
The second reason is the general insecurity of the nation as a whole. What with the looney left generally, and the OWS loonies specifically, right-thinking Americans are correct to be concerned. One way to alleviate that concern is to stockpile ammo. Contrary to what the current resident thinks, increased demand mandates higher prices.
And...
One can never have too many AR lowers (or uppers, either).
Crusader
Today's DBD . . . .
(http://www.daybydaycartoon.com/011412.jpg)
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Ammo is way high here....I was very happy to score a case of 762x39 att ranch and home this weekend for 300 bucks anyways! Came sealed in the box from Yugoslovia.
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45 Colt prices will not come down.. :'( .357 same, .45ACP same.....deals are out there for .223/5.56, and Ak ammo, but the prices suck.
Folks have been wisely and (hopefully), putting rds. away..I darn sure don't see a "drop" from present levels...and if BHO gets re-elected,....another "run" will occur...
WISE WORDS:
"I hear that small arms ammunition in South Africa has practically disappeared from the store shelves. Either people are wisely stocking up, or some arm of the government has decided to cut off the supply. In that regard, I advise you to keep your own stocks in good shape. Our enemies may not be able to abrogate the constitution just yet, but there are economic and political means by which they may dry up our ammunition supply."
Jeff Cooper
Remember, BHO is an "under the radar" political operative....If he's re-elected,......you'll see an El Presidente demonstrate a run on ammo....
If for nothing else than to drive pro-gun folks nuts..
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Ammo is way high here....I was very happy to score a case of 762x39 att ranch and home this weekend for 300 bucks anyways! Came sealed in the box from Yugoslovia.
That same box is $250 on sale here, $270 normally, 1240 rounds IIRC - Mills Fleet Farm.
Boxes of Federal 5.56 go on sale for $300+ for a thousand.
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Prices haven't really changed here much since the last run. But I think that prices will go up. Like CR said inflation is starting to be felt. Add that to the fact that Romney doesn't have a great 2A record and I think gun people are nervous regardless of who gets elected.
Throw in the almost certain riots we will likely be facing from the OWS fleabags, and everyone who is going to dump their life savings into guns and ammo in preparation of December. I see things getting tight.
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Look for the prices to go up within the next couple months. The manufacturers have already got their materials contracts set for this year and unless they re-negotiate the prices should stay steady. If everyone panics and starts buying like they did three years ago we'll see a lot of profitieering again and the prices will go sky high and the supplies will dry up again. Panic can cause a lot of trouble.
Pecos
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An ad this week had Remington 9mm (with brass brass not that Wolf or Bear stuff) for $22/100. That's getting down to prices of 10 years ago.
I thinking prices will continue to fall slightly through the beginning of next fall's hunting season. If bHO wins the elections then all bets are off after that.
Huh?
A few years ago...okay, probably more like 6, Winchester White Box 9mm ammo in the 100 count box was running right around 11 to 12 bucks a box.
It is currently at 22 bucks a box, so the price has basically doubled.
I had heard from a rep at Federal ammunition that their Lake City contract for military ammo was going to be up this year.
So....maybe....theoretically....with us pulling out of Iran and Federal not making ammo for the .gov, maybe that will free up more raw materials and primers.
I also had heard on another forum that metal prices go up at the first of the year and then spike around every quarter as manufacturers place purchases for the next quarter...or they skip a quarter to the one after that.
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So this begs the question, how much ammuntion should you have sitting in your personal inventory?
A years worth of shooting? Enough Self Defense rounds to last you five years?
I know there are those that have HUGE stock piles, I'm envious, but what is your bare minimum?
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So this begs the question, how much ammuntion should you have sitting in your personal inventory?
A years worth of shooting? Enough Self Defense rounds to last you five years?
I know there are those that have HUGE stock piles, I'm envious, but what is your bare minimum?
As much as I can get.
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I have a lifetime supply of ammo so I don't worry about prices going up. I just need some fresh SD ammo once in awhile.
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As much as I can get.
Good answer to most "how much do you need" questions
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Good answer to most "how much do you need" questions
(http://i296.photobucket.com/albums/mm182/twyacht/Ammo.jpg)
Getting really, really close...to "about" enough
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(http://i296.photobucket.com/albums/mm182/twyacht/Ammo.jpg)
Getting really, really close...to "about" enough
Is that possible?
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(http://i296.photobucket.com/albums/mm182/twyacht/Ammo.jpg)
Getting really, really close...to "about" enough
I don't know whether to insult you or suck up.... ;D
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(http://i296.photobucket.com/albums/mm182/twyacht/Ammo.jpg)
Getting really, really close...to "about" enough
No you're not! You are just really, really close to needing to build a new warehouse ;D
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Bare minimum? And this is a serious answer to a serious question, it's as much as I can comfortably move. That translates to about 300 rounds for the the AR, 100 in 9mm for the Glocks, the same in shot shells for the 12 gauge, and a 500 round brick of .22. It also includes about 20-50 rounds for my deer rifle and other handguns, and 500 for my pellet guns. (This obviously assumes I have my truck). Minus the truck? 6 loaded mags for the AR and the Glocks. Not an arsenal, just enough to last awhile if you're careful.
FQ13
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Bare minimum? And this is a serious answer to a serious question, it's as much as I can comfortably move. That translates to about 300 rounds for the the AR, 100 in 9mm for the Glocks, the same in shot shells for the 12 gauge, and a 500 round brick of .22. It also includes about 20-50 rounds for my deer rifle and other handguns, and 500 for my pellet guns. (This obviously assumes I have my truck). Minus the truck? 6 loaded mags for the AR and the Glocks. Not an arsenal, just enough to last awhile if you're careful.
FQ13
OMG!!!! :o
I tend to agree with FQ on this one. Though my opinion may be skewed. I am always accused of being a minimalist. Though I would hesitate to put an exact number on things, "as much as you can comfortably move" is not a bad way to say it. Although I would take out the comfortably, and simply say as much as you can move. In a worst case scenario ammunition will not only be a useful tool for hunting, but your primary means of self defense, and probably your most valuable form of currency. So in a bugout situation, I wouldn't want to leave any of it behind.
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I agree on the "as much as you can move" philosophy. I've held a fork truck license and they don't move that fast so if you need one to carry your ammo, you're pretty much screwed!
Today, I have far less than I want but an adequate supply for the moment.
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I apply that philosophy to all my preps. As far as I'm concerned, if I can't take it with me if I have to go, it does me no good. Fortunately I have a big truck, so it fits a lot of gear. ;D
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I apply that philosophy to all my preps. As far as I'm concerned, if I can't take it with me if I have to go, it does me no good. Fortunately I have a big truck, so it fits a lot of gear. ;D
I've been married for 29 years! If I were to leave tomorrow, everything I want or need will fit in my truck or car! The wife can have the rest! Not surprising, it's about the same list of stuff that I started with when I graduated from HS 37 years ago...
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I've been married for 29 years! If I were to leave tomorrow, everything I want or need will fit in my truck or car! The wife can have the rest! Not surprising, it's about the same list of stuff that I started with when I graduated from HS 37 years ago...
I'm not married, so it's just me and the dog. Everything I have ever done as far as prep has been the best that I can afford. The lightest, and most compact that will still do the job well. I don't have a lot, but what I do have will perform perfectly. It always has. I'm also a stickler for maintenance. Everything gets checked when I am done using it. Any repairs are done immediately, and if something does give out, it is replaced. I like being able to grab and go when opportunity calls. I don't want to be borrowing gear or scrambling to go buy something last minute. More times than not I pay way too much for an inferior product.
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The ammo rush has started in Tulsa. One of the major Wal-Marts in Tulsa has clean ammo shelves. The manager says people are coming in because of the economy and elections. It's not even February yet.
All the same concerns that gobbled up ammo before the last election seem to be coming into play NOW.
I think the time to buy ammo is now with price increases coming before summer. Just my 2 cents....
Anyone else make any ammo observations by talking to vendors in your area?
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I watch the auction on GB and Auction arms and the prices on 9s and 45 have been slowly going up 30 to 40 dollars on a 1000 over last year. Like playing poker you can get some good buys but you have to watch and wait.
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OK. whaddya' guys think now? Have you noticed empty spots on the ammo shelves?
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OK. whaddya' guys think now? Have you noticed empty spots on the ammo shelves?
Yes!
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I haven't been able to find 5.75 Velo-Dog or 32 rimfire in years but everything else seems to be available at a higher price then before the 2008 election.
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I haven't been able to find 5.75 Velo-Dog or 32 rimfire in years but everything else seems to be available at a higher price then before the 2008 election.
Gun show this weekend had at least three dealers with .32 rimfire. Caught my attention, because I've heard of it but don't shoot it. Don't remember the cost, because I didn't care, but the rest of their ammo was better than normal prices I have seen.
I picked up some brass, primers, and some little stuff. I know I need more, but we are remodeling the family room, and my reloading stuff is packed away. After the room is done, the reloading station will be rebuilt, inventory taken, and then a buying spree ;D I hate being around good supplies and not remembering what I do and don't need :'(
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OK. whaddya' guys think now? Have you noticed empty spots on the ammo shelves?
Depends on the immediate area around here...... Not much stocks at our local wally-world, but 30 miles away in another county where my youngest works, he said the shelves are jam-packed with a wide range of stuff........
Anyone wanna guess where the one-legged fat man is headed sometime soon?? ;)
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Anyone wanna guess where the one-legged fat man is headed sometime soon?? Wink
Uh the happy hour at the Nudie Bar?
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OK. whaddya' guys think now? Have you noticed empty spots on the ammo shelves?
No
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I'm changing my call on this one. I was at couple of other stores today and they were well stocked in what I shoot which is .45 ACP and .38 spcl. Surprisingly 9mm was a bit short though.
Anyone use that Tula Ammo? There was a bunch of that as well as aluminum cased Blazer...
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I'm changing my call on this one. I was at couple of other stores today and they were well stocked in what I shoot which is .45 ACP and .38 spcl. Surprisingly 9mm was a bit short though.
Anyone use that Tula Ammo? There was a bunch of that as well as aluminum cased Blazer...
But were the prices decent? Have they gone up, like everything else? My exp. in watching many web site pricing and local retail pricing, is they are incrementally going up.
As far as Tula? My Saiga AK is the only firearm I own I'll shoot it in. The Blazer aluminum case is "fair" IMHO, In revolver calibers, it makes ejecting the spent rds. difficult as it seems to swell after being fired.
I prefer the Blazer Brass and have no issues with it.
The bulk pricing is up 1000 rds. of Federal XM193 could be found last year for around $269-$300. Now it's around $329-$350.
.40 S&W, 45ACP is worse, and .45Colt is even "worser"..... :-\
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Wally World.
.45 ACP, 230 gr @ $44.00/100 (WWB)
.38 +p, HP, 130 gr @ $34.00/100 (UMC)
.38, 130 gr ball @ $20.00/50 (UMC)
Dicks
.45 ACP @???? didn't look..
.38 spl @$16.00 (Blazer AL)
.38 spl @$19.00 (UMC)
Tula I don't recall as I thought it was Wolf from a distance.
I've been buying the .38 +p, HP to practice with the last few weeks since it's cheaper. I bought some Independence from a local gun shop in NH a few weeks ago and it was $42.00/100. They were Blazer brass cases. For those two calibers it's up 25-30% from 2008 I figure.
I just sent Alf some brass for reloading, some of it was Blazer brass. Maybe he'll let us know how the stuff reloads later.
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I've noticed a bottoming out of prices to a small increase in prices (for bulk). I have also noticed "not available" or "on backorder" for bulk ammo that was available a couple of weeks ago. My favorite place to shoot was placing an order for 250 thousand rounds and when they got around to hitting the buy button the available number dropped to 60,000 rounds.
Looks like the rush is on.
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Made it to the wally's place two counties over....boy oh boy....I haven't seen that much ammo in any wal-mart in three years....they not only had most every standard caliber, but had several brands of each.... I just hope it stays like that for a while so I can buy a little along as I can afford it.
Last week, my boy said they had Federal .223 bulk ammo cans with 500 rounds for $149....of course they had sold out. The lady at the counter said that was the one ammo item that sold as fast as they got them in. They had Federal 100 round bulk packs of .223 for $40 and American Eagle 20 round boxes for $7.
So, I bought ten boxes (200 rnds) of the American Eagle for $70 and saved $10 over the same number of rounds in the Federal packs...and put that toward a box of Federal .45 ACP for $18 (which is the cheapest I've seen .45 ACP anywhere in the area).
Spent right at $96 total for 250 rounds.
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<SNIP>
The Blazer aluminum case is "fair" IMHO, In revolver calibers, it makes ejecting the spent rds. difficult as it seems to swell after being fired.
I prefer the Blazer Brass and have no issues with it.
The bulk pricing is up 1000 rds. of Federal XM193 could be found last year for around $269-$300. Now it's around $329-$350.
<SNIP>
I bought the aluminum several years ago not knowing what I was doing...ugghhhh...never again. The Blazer Brass goes bang every time...maybe...just maybe...a bit dirtier than Winchester White Box but not so much to cause any problems between 1000 round handgun cleanings at all. I picked up some 9MM Blazer Brass last week at $10.50/50 and now Nathezz has the same at $9.99. Natchez just sold out on XM 193 at $289.50/1000 bulk when you buy 2000 rounds. I think everything is up from here.
I'm looking for good dedicated 22 uppers for my AR's so I can afford training and picked up one of the new S&W M&P 22's last week to cut training costs.
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Haven't noticed much in the way of ammo availability problems yet. It does seem that longer wait times and availability of AR stuff has started. ALso seems to be a big demand for some hand guns. I spoke to one of the major manufacturers last week that stated they were extremly busy and couldn't hire people quickly enough. They are getting their product out, but it passes right through the distributors. I have heard that the NICS system has been regularly been setting daily and monthly records checks, but have not confirmed that since last Christmas shopping season.
Bud's Gun Shop online has posted a statement about slow shipping because of sales volume and their websight crashing becauseit was so busy.
I have noticed that some of the AR online places have a lot of out of stock, indefinate backorder, no backorder, and shipping delay statements on their websights.
I personally think that the near panic pace for firearms started last Christmas shopping season and willl continue to escalate through the election. Ammo sales will follow, but the ammo makers may have more available capacity this time around. Prices probably going up on all.
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Prices are going up for one reason, people are TALKING about them going up. Retailers LOVE manufactured shortages. People are like sheep, (yes, even gun owners), so they respond in the exact fashion they want them to. There is nothing in the works currently, that even suggests more gun control. Just unmanaged fear. That's all it takes. If there was genuine legitimate concern people would have been buying all the way through the 2010 election. That is when the real danger existed, not the perceived one now.
From 2008 to 2010 democrats held all the legislative cards. Now with Republicans controlling the House, the chances of a big gun ban going anywhere are all but nil. Even the southern Dixiecrat's that Hussein would need to get a ban through the Senate aren't there. Remember the petition they all signed after Hussein was elected? There were over 100 Congressman's and Senator's names on it. As far an Executive Order, he would have done it by now. It would be a totally stupid move politically to sign any major Executive Order regarding gun control right before an election cycle, during the campaign. Especially with "Fast & Furious" in full swing. It would be the ultimate hypocritical move politically. Republicans would be all over it like stink on dog crap.
Another thing is if he goes crazy and signs a bunch of anti gun Executive Orders if he is defeated, the next President can immediately nix them. A President can't do that with a pardon. For now there is no real reason for a run on guns and ammo. Except for the one the Internet will create, and retailers along with consumers, will respond to. All the madness ended within a year of his coronation. The dems still held all the legislative cards when the buying subsided.
The bottom line is for at least the moment, there isn't a whole lot to get excited about. No real fuel for a shortage. If Hussein wins another term, all bets are off. However with everything the way it is, That is becoming less of a likelihood.
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And then there is this.
http://beforeitsnews.com/story/1914/592/FYI:_Government_Buying_Out_All_The_5.56_Military_Surplus_Ammo_Is_Telling_Ammo_Dealers_To_Stop_Selling_To_Their_Vendors_Civilians..html
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FTA:
For instance...I paid $149.00 for federal surplus 440 rounds of steal core and now at the gun show today it was selling for $440.00 for 420 rounds.
http://www.luckygunner.com/rifle/223-remington-ammo
Seems he didn't shop around.
400 rds. of Remington .223 .......$189. 1000rds. still around $349+/- used to be $279-$300....
Either way, General Mills, (the big food making co.) just came out with their product cost analysis....
We all go the grocery store, and see it for ourselves.
Milk, Meat, Coffee, Bread, etc,...the staple items are all up around 8-10%. It all gets gets passed down to us the consumer. Of course ammo goes with it.....in only one direction,,,,,,,,UP.... :-\
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http://www.wideners.com/itemdetail.cfm?item_id=9019&dir=18|830|845
Wideners still has IMI M-855 in stock for $379.00 for a 1,200 round case.
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??? I'VE ALREADY SEEN PRICES GO UP ON EVERYTHING, EVEN .22's. ??? >:( AT LEAST A $1.0 A BOX ON STUFF & $3.00 ON BRICKS OF .22's!! ??? SO ALREADY THINGS ARE CHANGIN'!
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You guys can change your vote if you want to.
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Saw 50 bucks for 100 UMC .45 ACP ad Dicks last week!
.38 spcl has stayed put the last few weeks and everyone had some for a change. Too bad I'm tapped out...I buy 50-100 rounds when I can and have a few hundred stocked.
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Saw 50 bucks for 100 UMC .45 ACP ad Dicks last week!
.38 spcl has stayed put the last few weeks and everyone had some for a change. Too bad I'm tapped out...I buy 50-100 rounds when I can and have a few hundred stocked.
Wally world here still has the .45 ACP UMC bulk 250 for $96+tax. But it's a few bucks cheaper to buy the 50 round boxes of Federal for $18. The difference covers the tax so it comes in under a hundred bucks. Every penny counts. ;D