i love how they use computer models... Only as some one that has a degree in math, i call bull shit. the functions need to try to predict stuff like this are so large it boggles the mind. The variables are so many and so deverse. Every thing from gravity( tides), magnitecs, fuild dynamics, solar out put shifts, variable densitys(air water earth), countors of the earth, shading, the tilting and wabling of the earth, distance from the sun... Etc etc. thats just off the top of my head. the only one of those thats even remotly easy to model is the distance from the sun and thats still a conic( not even a constant orbit) and compounded by the wobble and rotation of the earth and the geography. still that would be easy to figure, take probably a life time to get a good equation, but doable.