Mild Hurricane Season (so far)

[PegLeg45]

After last year and Helene, I'm grateful that so far this season has seen storms stay out over open water. The last two came close to the east coast, but followed the path like earlier storms.
We still have folks in some areas that have not fully recovered from last year.

I noticed earlier in the season that in our area of the southeast (south-central GA) that a lot of our winds and airflow was out of the east-northeast, which is atypical. Most of ours rises out of the gulf. I expect this has had an effect on keeping storms pushed away and I hope this trend continues.

There's a disturbance out there now, but it looks like it may turn NNE as well.

[alfsauve]

Of course after the last couple of "disturbances" people have lost some/all confidence in NHC's ability to forecast.  Remember the one that was 90% chance, headed right for Cuba and a day later, nada.  Amd then the IMELDA forecast.  Dead on to hit Charleston.  Oops no.

We do have to stay vigilant.  Have many relative on the FL panhandle, SW Gulf Coast and Beaufort/Jacksonville area. 

[PegLeg45]

We do have to stay vigilant.

After having three go right over us in the last handful of seasons, you are 100% correct.

TS Jerry is out there now, but like the others is predicted to head NE over the Atlantic.

[alfsauve]

Every couple of years I do a plot of 24 and 48 hour forecast verses the actual track.  I've found a fairly consistent bias in latitude and longitude.  Now my plots could be off (NHC predictions and actual observations are at different times so I had to interpolate), but, assuming I'm not far wrong, you'd think they'd adjust the model accordingly.  You know, learn from past performance.

Anyway, with Imelda they claimed, or at least the TV spokesperson did, that it was Humberto that cause it to take a sharp dogleg East.  Trouble is Jerry's doing the same thing and there's no other storm out there this time.

A wild guess is that they base the forecast with too much emphasis on past tracks, modified by current conditions.  Maybe they need to rely less on former tracks, or they're not looking at the right data, or they just haven't found the right formula to apply the data they have.

Did you know there's a Karen out there?   Let the memes begin.

[MikeBjerum]

I'm praying for the calm to hang on for a while and the shutdown to come to an end soon.  We are scheduled to take a long weekend in Florida, Gulf side, the second weekend of November.

[Sponsor]

[Big Frank]

We had some weird weather up north while this thread was going on. A couple of days it was 80 degrees when it should have been in the 60s. And it got down to ~30 degrees one or 2 nights within a week. Mid-60s feel a lot better than 80 degrees when you're working hard, but the work is still there when it's hot and sticky, which it shouldn't be in the fall. And it's been extremely dry most of the time. A little over 100 acres burned up and some guy on TV was talking about how dry it was and gave some measurement they use. I think whatever they checked was 600-800 units and 100-200 is a fire hazard. It was so bad the tree roots could have burned underground for a week after everything else was out, so they had to keep flying drones over the area to look for hot spots.

[alfsauve]

MELISSA   That's one L and two S's.

Talk about a wild and slow track.   Currently goin 14mph but looks like it's be moving at less than half that by the weekend.  Hurricane by Saturday am.  Will be between Jamaica and Haiti.

This would really be one to gather the data and plot, but I'm not motivated.