Was thinking the blog was worthy of an honest and frank discussion. As some already know I live in a May primary state so I have no say in choosing the nominee. If I lived in an early state I would vote Fred. I have never voted Dem for prez because of the gun issue. I am a small government conservative with libertarian leanings. Just wanted to get that out there for any newbies.
I may ramble a bit here so please excuse.
What was the purpose of supporting Fred? Was it only because he was an A+ 2A supporter or was it because he was "the only real conservative"? I am a single issue 2A voter. If we are single issue 2A voters then is it more important to back a losing candidate to the bitter end or try to influence another candidate who has a real shot at winning?
At what point do we say enuff, this guy's a loser? Huckster started surging in the polls in Nov and Fred started going down. Was it reasonable to switch then? Probably not, given the Obama surge in the close of the Ia campaign and his win. Fred announced in Dec he was going all in in Ia. He did his 50 city bus tour and came in third. BARELY beating McCain for the spot. Afterward, some looked forward to a Fred surge in NH. Others believed Fred would surge and win SC. However, there was little evidence to support these hopes. Polling had never shown Fred doing well in NH. Polling had shown Huckster surging in SC. Polls after Ia showed a McCain NH surge and Huckster running away with the SC vote.
After Ia may have been the time to start rethinking candidates.
Fred may very well come in behind Ron Paul today in NH.
Fred is not going to win in Mi next week.
SC is going to be a battle between Huckster and McCain.
Just where does Fred break out in the process? Truth is, he has nowhere to make a breakout. I live in a Bible Belt state. Surrounded by Southern Baptists. The buzz I am hearing from fundamentalist coworkers/friends/relatives is Huckster. Fundamentalists have one of their own to vote for and no one turns out like fundamentalists when they are fired up on an issue. This alone dooms Fred in SC and much (ALL?) of the south.
And don't discount Hucksters "little guy against the big guy" appeal in the south. Southern Repubs are working stiffs who vote on the gun issue or social issues in general. We aren't wealthy corporate fat cats. Hucksters message will be appealing across the south, and I expect, a good deal of the country in general.
So, if my ramblings are anywhere near correct (and they are supported by polling) Fred is now out of the race.
Do we, as 2A voters stick with Fred until the bitter end? Do we boycott the election? Or do we try to make a choice between the winner of Ia and the winner(s) of NH and Mi?
If, as expected, McCain wins NH today and then goes on to win Mi that sets up a Huckster/McCain battle in SC. Who do we support?
Or do we sit around hoping for the Fred surge that the evidence tells us isn't going to happen?
I am afraid we are in danger here of pissing away 2A voter clout. If 2A voters stick with Fred to the bitter end, and the best he ever wins is 3rd, what message does that send to the antigunners? My fear is the perception will be that 2A voters can no longer deliver.
Lastly, I think this election shows that 2A voters alone aren't a big enuff voting block to choose a nominee. Something we should keep in mind for the future.