China. Threat or rival? (forget strategic partner)

[fightingquaker13]

Its 1am and I am both awake and bored (always a dangerous combinationn). Anyway I am about halfway through Mahan's "The Influence of Sea Power Upon History". A great (though tedious), read and one that influenced TR to build "The Geat White Fleet" and has dictated CINCPAC strategy since it was written in 1890. The summary is this. Nations with naval power succeed in projecting power, those without don't. The Chinese don't have a blue water navy, and they never have. This has been their fatal flaw from the days of Ghenghis Khan.The PLAN is buying shiny toys, but the PLA is still focused on missles aimed at Taipei. Do they want to project power locally or globally? Do they want to just dominate the Pacific or world wide? Are they pursuing a military or economic strategy for doing so? Thoughts?
FQ13

[Solus]

Its 1am and I am both awake and bored (always a dangerous combinationn). Anyway I am about halfway through Mahan's "The Influence of Sea Power Upon History". A great (though tedious), read and one that influenced TR to build "The Geat White Fleet" and has dictated CINCPAC strategy since it was written in 1890. The summary is this. Nations with naval power succeed in projecting power, those without don't. The Chinese don't have a blue water navy, and they never have. This has been their fatal flaw from the days of Ghenghis Khan.The PLAN is buying shiny toys, but the PLA is still focused on missles aimed at Taipei. Do they want to project power locally or globally? Do they want to just dominate the Pacific or world wide? Are they pursuing a military or economic strategy for doing so? Thoughts?
FQ13

I'd say China is a threat.

During the Shock and Awe of the 2nd Gulf War, China was duly impressed by our military technology....to the extent that they realized a toe-to-toe military conflict with the US was a no-win undertaking.

Since that time, they have sought other means of attack.  The incident of Internet attacks from China expanded soon after the war.  They are probing for weakness in our Internet, Communications and Power Grid infrastructure.

Infiltration into political positions and other positions of influence or control have been suggested.

I have been told that the influx of Western Business will make it impossible for them to cut ties with the West.

Well, I know that finding McDonalds usually indicates the End of Life as We Know It in most places, but somehow I think the regime in China will manage to quell the citizens taste for McChopSuey in order to achieve their military goals.

[tombogan03884]

Mahon is like Clausewitz, He presented some well reasoned ideas, but his writings were, and are, given more weight than they deserve. Two specifics, first, many of his theories revolve around the contemporary need for a world wide network of coaling stations that  has been rendered obsolete .
Secondly even in his own time 4 of the major powers had little if anything in the way of real naval power (Germany, Austria Hungary, Ottoman Empire, and Russia,) and while France considers itself to still be a "World Power" it's fleet has not been a factor in world affairs since Napoleon's day, yet both France and Germany maintained colonies around the world while the Ottomans ruled an area that extended from the borders of Afghanistan to the Atlantic coast of Africa.

China ?  It's my opinion that they wish to dominate the world economically while maintaining a military that is capable of both, local domination to the East, South, West, and internally, while also being able to defend against any moves by the Russians to the North.
China's primary reason for the military modernization of the last 30 years is the lousy performance of the PLA in their 1979 operations on the Vietnamese border.
If Red China, and Formosa are ever reunited it will be common interest not military force that decides the issue.
When you get done with Mahon there is still Douhet  (Sp ? ) "On Air power"

[twyacht]

They haven't bent the U.S. over quite far enough yet for the real reaming they would love to give to us. But China has always been patient, and economically getting higher up the ladder than the rest of the world.

He who has the gold makes the rules......As the EU is going broke, our country is broke, the rest are just chump change, China is a threat, and Russia is a close second.

Kinda gives you those warm fuzzies doesn't it???