What’s Up With Nevada?

[tombogan03884]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/november_2010/what_s_up_with_nevada

More at link

While public polling generally gave a good projection of what to expect around the country in Election 2010, that was not the case in Nevada.

Rasmussen Reports' final poll on the race showed Senator Majority Leader Harry Reid trailing by four points and the Real Clear Politics average showed the Democratic incumbent down by 2.7 points.  When the dust settled, however, Reid won by 5.6 percentage points.

After every election, polling firms review the things that went well and those that didn’t to learn and make modifications. In this process, Nevada seems like an ideal place to start. That’s especially true because it’s the second straight election in which the Democrat has substantially outperformed both Rasmussen Reports polling and the average of all public polls in Nevada.

In 2008, President Obama won the state by 12 points and outperformed the average poll by six points. Rasmussen Reports had shown a four-point edge for Obama. So it seems as if there is something substantive that public pollsters are missing in understanding the Nevada electorate. However, the misunderstanding is fairly recent. Both Rasmussen Reports and the public polling averages did very well in the 2006 Nevada governor’s race and the 2004 Bush-Kerry presidential match-up.

At Rasmussen Reports, we began by comparing our results to the exit polls to see if there were any obvious clues. Our final poll showed Obama’s job approval in the state at 44%, while the exit polls found 45%. Our final sample had 39% Democrats and 35% Republicans, while the exit polls showed 35% Democrats and 33% Republicans. Their final numbers showed 32% not affiliated with either major party, while we showed 26%. None of those variances would explain the difference in projected outcome.

Our final numbers showed that 76% of voters would be white, while the exit polls showed 72% white. This could certainly account for some of the difference between the poll and the actual results, but not all. It also confirms the sense that the Reid campaign did a good job of turning out its base.

One discrepancy that really jumps out, however, are the results among unaffiliated voters.  The Rasmussen Reports numbers showed Angle winning these voters by more than 20 percentage points. The exit polls showed her with just a four-point advantage. This strikes us as an especially significant clue because the Angle poll numbers in Nevada were not out of step with the preference of unaffiliated voters for Republicans around the country.

[TAB]

whats up with them is unemployement of around 20%

[tombogan03884]

whats up with them is unemployement of around 20%

I don't know if you went to the link, but I would have thought that would make them even more eager to dump that arrogant bast*rd.

[TAB]

I don't know if you went to the link, but I would have thought that would make them even more eager to dump that arrogant bast*rd.

whats really scary is I know, many people that moved back to CA from Nevada in the last few years.  I can only think of one that moved to NV and he is retired and wealth( as in 10-20 millon range)

[tombogan03884]

Do we have any forum members from Nevada, maybe they have an explanation.

[Sponsor]

[fightingquaker13]

You have a political scientist who doesn't have an answer, but three good questions. Most modern polls are right to within 3-4%. When they are wrong, there's an X factor. The X in this case is a politically significant minority doing something different. The questions are these:
1) Who is the minority?
2) Why did they do something they haven't done in the past?
3) Will they keep on doing it, or was this election a one off?
There are multiple explantions. A pro-Reid base who has warm fuzzies for a native son. A latino vote that thinks he supports amnesty. A BO vote that doesn't want him stymied in Congress. A strategic base that wants a Democratic House and a Republican Senate. Or, good old fashioned fraud. I doubt the latter, but it is Nevada. All I will say is this. The GOP didn't win and the Dems didn't lose. The American people sent their third warning shot in three elections that they are pissed. Hopefully, folks are listening.
FQ13

[tombogan03884]

I think the political scientist is talking out his azz.
 I would suspect it had more to do with the SEIU maintained voting machines that already had Reid checked off and the ones that registered straight Dem when the Straight Rep. button was pushed. Then of course there is the detail of screwing the deployed troops out of their vote by sending out absentee ballots to late to get back in time to be counted.
There is one legitimate reason to vote for Reid, he brings home the pork which helps the state, at our expense.

[fightingquaker13]

I think the political scientist is talking out his azz.
 I would suspect it had more to do with the SEIU maintained voting machines that already had Reid checked off and the ones that registered straight Dem when the Straight Rep. button was pushed. Then of course there is the detail of screwing the deployed troops out of their vote by sending out absentee ballots to late to get back in time to be counted.
There is one legitimate reason to vote for Reid, he brings home the pork which helps the state, at our expense.

It worked for Mitch McConell, the GOP Majority leader in '08. His whole re-election campaign was "Look how many tax dollars I brought to KY". Hell, that strategy kept Robert Byrd in office three years after he was declared brain dead. He'd have moved the Washington Monument to West Virginia if he could have hidden the moving costs in an appropriations bill. Sadly, this BS works. "Vote to keep me in office and you get "free"stuff". In any other line of work it would be bribery. Hell, it gets to the point of extortion. Tom Delay flat out told K street to fire their Democratic Lobbyists and hire Republican ones or his office door was closed after 1994. Normally, that's extortion. In DC, its business as usual. As the saying goes, "Power tends to corrupt. Absolute power is kind of fun, and it pays pretty well too".   This is where I tend to get in line with those who are shopping for tar, feathers and 2x6s. A bit of good scratchy hemp rope wouldn't go amiss either.
FQ13

[tombogan03884]

Don't forget Murtha, and it's why Carol Shea-Porter got her head handed to her. The only thing she had to brag about was "saving" Portsmouth Naval ship yard, which is obsolete, wildly inefficient and located in Maine. While others took home billions for their Obummercare vote she got us nothing. Yes, pork is good for the individual state, do you enjoy paying higher taxes so some drone in Kittery Me. can sit on his ass reading skin mags so the job will take as long as it is scheduled to, which is already about 2 or 3 times longer than it would take a private yard like Bath Iron Works  ?
It is not the job of Govt to prop up the economy of your state , and it is a self defeating proposition.

[crusader rabbit]

I think the political scientist is talking out his azz.
 I would suspect it had more to do with the SEIU maintained voting machines that already had Reid checked off and the ones that registered straight Dem when the Straight Rep. button was pushed. Then of course there is the detail of screwing the deployed troops out of their vote by sending out absentee ballots to late to get back in time to be counted.
There is one legitimate reason to vote for Reid, he brings home the pork which helps the state, at our expense.

We have a winner!