Hurricane Irene - NWS/NHC prediciton

[alfsauve]

I had just posted in a thread drift about NWS and their attitude.   I thought I'd start a thread just for hurricane.

About 3-4 years ago I did an analysis of the NHC's forecasts versus the actual tracks of hurricane.  I found they had a rather dismal record.  Basically I rated them about 50% accurate.   A little better for their 1 day forecasts and much worse for their 5 day.

I want to see what the various models showed and I found the elitist remark on the NHC web site.

The National Hurricane Center does not generate a graphic of the guidance models it uses to produce its forecasts. Such graphics have the potential to confuse users and to undermine the effectiveness of NHC official tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings.

Of course one could question their "effectiveness" given their rather poor track record.  (Also see comments/history about what happened to Galveston in 1900).

Anyway, I re-found the Weather Underground.  And here's how they rate hurricane forecasting models.  Guess which track is the National Hurricane Center's?



WRONG:  NHC isn't the bottom one.   That would be the US Navy.

The NHC is the next to bottom.

More information at WeatherUndgerground:  http://www.wunderground.com

By the way, here is a link that shows the various model predictions.  It's 4 days old, but some of the models, including the "official" NHC had it going more towards the Gulf .     Look where it is now.   (This picture may change as WU updates it's web site.)

[crusader rabbit]

But you missed the really bad news, Alf. 

Odamna may have to cut-short his vacation.

That means the sumb!tch may go back to D.C. and DO something.

Things are always better when Congress is on recess and the Prez is outta town.

Sheesh!

[Pathfinder]

But you missed the really bad news, Alf. 

Odamna may have to cut-short his vacation.

That means the sumb!tch may go back to D.C. and DO something.

Things are always better when Congress is on recess and the Prez is outta town.

Sheesh!

Only marginally, CR. The .gov bureaucracy still functions and since .gov loves to run by Imperial Edicts Regulations, we're still screwed. We're always screwed!   

[jnevis]

All I know is NHC and Navy MEOTC are both showing Norfolk getting the center about Sun morning at Cat 2-3, which means I'll get the outer edge from Sat evening thrrough Mon with Sun being Cat1-2ish part of the day.

Weather has never been an exact science, 1 day out is ALWAYS going to be better than 5 days anyway.

[Timothy]

I just stopped to get a couple more gallons of water at the market up here 500 miles north of Kill Devil Hills and they were pretty much sold out.  Folks are clearing off the shelves.

I had enough but it never hurts to have a few more.  Maybe twenty gallons for the two of us, another fifty in the two tubs and 50 more in the water heater.  I'm good, the pantry is stocked, the first aid kits are close by and the rest is just a daily no brainer.

Good luck to those to the south, I may make fun of these storms having experienced a few here and some in FL back in the day but they're nothing to take lightly.

Be safe!

[Sponsor]

[fightingquaker13]

Hit your local dollar store. You can usually find 5 gallon painter's buckets for nothing. a few of those will hold water for flushing.
 Irene on our end was a joke (thank God). I've been busting my hump doing things I should have done earlier like lubing the shutters and moving lawn furniture and the like. As it was, the schools were open and all we've had so far are some line squalls. Unfortunately the wind is at the exact right angle to drive water under the sliding glass door so I have to sit there with some of those super absorbent towels and a bucket. Oh well, I'll live. Good luck up there.
FQ13 who is currently freezing as I followed standard hurricane procedure and jacked the A/C down to arctic levels in anticipation of an extended power outage. As it is I have on a long sleeve shirt in the house and its like a crock pot outside.

[twyacht]

The models are mostly miss several days out,....(Irene 5 days out had all the models smacking S. Florida),...However, many variables, fronts, the Bermuda High, troughs, water temp, land mass, all hone the models to usually different modeling as it gets closer.

The good news is, as the storm gets 2 or three days out,....it gets better. They called for Irene to swing NW off the FL. coast 3 days ago. and it did.

I too, took some steps, just in case, however, just a rainy, off and on, windy hot day....but feel free to use my sign for you members up the East Coast.

[Timothy]

irene b here we b sitting in the dark watching the blow   back when power back

[jnevis]

7 1/2" of rain since yesterday morning. Four trees down in the yard, only minor damage to a storage shed here.  Neighbors on either side lost portions of their decks and have trees sitting on the roof.  One neighbor behnd us had one go through part of the roof and pool.

[philw]

all the best to everyone that will be affected by the Hurricane

will show how a lot of people are just not prepared

also heard that there were firearms restrictions being called by some mayor