Things Are Heating Up With Israel / Iran

[billt]

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/israel-warns-west-window-of-opportunity-to-thwart-iran-nuclear-program-is-closing-1.393036

This is going to be the next big battle ground in the Middle East. I'm surprised Israel hasn't hit them yet. There is no way they will tolerate a nuclear Iran, or should they. Right now I would say it's a 50/50 chance we will get dragged into it. Most likely not with Hussein, but after he is gone. If it isn't over by then. Israel doesn't screw around with these things the way we do. They fight 6 day wars, not 10 year ones.

[fightingquaker13]

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/israel-warns-west-window-of-opportunity-to-thwart-iran-nuclear-program-is-closing-1.393036

This is going to be the next big battle ground in the Middle East. I'm surprised Israel hasn't hit them yet. There is no way they will tolerate a nuclear Iran, or should they. Right now I would say it's a 50/50 chance we will get dragged into it. Most likely not with Hussein, but after he is gone. If it isn't over by then. Israel doesn't screw around with these things the way we do. They fight 6 day wars, not 10 year ones.

Actually, they have fought a fifty year war and are losing. The lesson is this. We (the West), are great at winning wars. We suck at occupations. If its a question of crushing an army we can do that, no problem. Ask us to subdue a hostile population? Not so much. In our favor, even the brutality of the Russians and the Nazi's didn't prove that they were much better at it. If it were a military to military issue the smart money is on Israel. Problem is that the game has changed, and none of us have figured out how to deal with it. How do you deter or bribe a suicide bomber? Until we figure that one out (and there is a solution, I hope), I'm not all that confident that the the old metrics of warfare are worth much. At the end of the day, the Israelis can whip any army in the region. That said, the old South African army had a slogan, "Thirty Days to Cairo". It was a boast, but it wasn't too far off the mark. The question they couldn't answer, and the reason Mandela became President was this. "What then White Boy"? Damned if I know.
FQ13

[billt]

They will hit Iran's nuclear facilities much the same as they did Iraq. There are more of them spread out over a larger area, and it will no doubt require more sorties to accomplish, but there is no doubt Israel has been planning this for months, if not years. This was a threat to them during the Bush years. As far as them "losing", I don't know of a single country on this planet that could have survived for 64 years surrounded by such blood thirsty enemies.

[fightingquaker13]

They will hit Iran's nuclear facilities much the same as they did Iraq. There are more of them spread out over a larger area, and it will no doubt require more sorties to accomplish, but there is no doubt Israel has been planning this for months, if not years. This was a threat to them during the Bush years. As far as them "losing", I don't know of a single country on this planet that could have survived for 64 years surrounded by such blood thirsty enemies.

I seriously doubt air strikes will do it. The Iranians learned from the Ossrik (sp?) incident as well as the strike on the Syrian nuclear reactor. I hate to "blame W" (actually, I LOVE to blame W ), but if we were to have attacked any of the "Axis of Evil" it should have been Iran. It will take boots on the ground to wipe this program out, where there actually are WMDs hidden in multiple locations with redundancy factors built in.  I have no doubt that Israel will bomb. I have huge doubts that it will do the job. Given our position in a Shiite dominated Iraq, we can't invade. Reason number.....that Cheney was an idiot. If we were to have launched a war of choice, it should have been against Syria or Iran, not Iraq.
FQ13

[billt]

I'm not understanding why you think they need "boots"? Once the facilities have been destroyed, that's it. There is nothing required to "mop up". This is how they destroyed Iraq's nuclear reactors. They were in and out in a couple of hours.

[Sponsor]

[tombogan03884]

 FQ, It was "Osirak" .
When the Israeli's hit the Syrian Nuke facility a couple years ago they owned Syria's air defense system through computer hacking, no one is quite sure exactly how they did it, but it is common knowledge that Syria was completely unaware of the fleets of IDF aircraft and helicopters in their airspace. These included ground forces who seized nuke materials, documents, and North Korean personnel.
Taking out the Iranian program would pose little challenge to the IDF, some of their options would include,
1 Hitting the reactors to remove the supply of fissionable material as with Iraq.
2 Hitting the enrichment facilities, it is known the Iranians are using thousands of high speed centrifuges to do this, even a bomb that did not penetrate the facility could throw these centrifuges out of balance and cause the facility to destroy it's self.
3 They have the ability to nuke Tehran removing the current leadership and generating a Japanese style horror of Nuclear weapons.
None of these require "boots on the ground".

[Solus]

Actually, they have fought a fifty year war and are losing. The lesson is this. We (the West), are great at winning wars. We suck at occupations. If its a question of crushing an army we can do that, no problem. Ask us to subdue a hostile population? Not so much. In our favor, even the brutality of the Russians and the Nazi's didn't prove that they were much better at it. If it were a military to military issue the smart money is on Israel. Problem is that the game has changed, and none of us have figured out how to deal with it. How do you deter or bribe a suicide bomber? Until we figure that one out (and there is a solution, I hope), I'm not all that confident that the the old metrics of warfare are worth much. At the end of the day, the Israelis can whip any army in the region. That said, the old South African army had a slogan, "Thirty Days to Cairo". It was a boast, but it wasn't too far off the mark. The question they couldn't answer, and the reason Mandela became President was this. "What then White Boy"? Damned if I know.
FQ13

If there is a way, I think it will require eradicating the place they are germinated, cultivated and recruited.

[fightingquaker13]

I'm not understanding why you think they need "boots"? Once the facilities have been destroyed, that's it. There is nothing required to "mop up". This is how they destroyed Iraq's nuclear reactors. They were in and out in a couple of hours.

Iran's are decentralized and spread out over a number of locations. Many of these are under ground and located near civilian population centers. The Qom (sp?) facility is exhibit A. Its the holiest city to Shiite Islam. One stray bomb that destroys a mosque (or a satchel charge planted by the Iranians who claim a bomb destroyed the mosque) and it is Jihad. Think of an airstrike on Rome. You hit the Vatican? You have a problem.
FQ13

[billt]

Taking out the Iranian program would pose little challenge to the IDF, some of their options would include,
1 Hitting the reactors to remove the supply of fissionable material as with Iraq.
2 Hitting the enrichment facilities, it is known the Iranians are using thousands of high speed centrifuges to do this, even a bomb that did not penetrate the facility could throw these centrifuges out of balance and cause the facility to destroy it's self.
3 They have the ability to nuke Tehran removing the current leadership and generating a Japanese style horror of Nuclear weapons.
None of these require "boots on the ground".

I agree. These are sophisticated facilities that don't require much to screw them up to the point of total disfunction. Personally, I think it's time to use option 3. The Muslims respect swift blinding force. It's time they got some. F.Q.....You asked "How do you deter, or bribe a suicide bomber." I suspect about 3.5 Megatons air bursting over Tehran would have a very humbling effect on these animals, and would be a step in the right direction to tranquilize them. Much like the Japs, they'll soon realize they will run out of cities before Israel runs out of bombs. The UN will of course whine to the max, but who cares?

[billt]

If there is a way, I think it will require eradicating the place they are germinated, cultivated and recruited.

Yes, most definitely. It's time.