Polls are useless.
A recent study I saw tracked the polls since the 1980 election and they have never been right yet.
Add to that the way the media outlets that conduct the polls are so openly biased in Obama's favor and I would say that Romney probably has a healthy lead .
On the other hand, the stock market has accurately predicted the out come 90% of the time since 1900 .
If it goes up the incumbent wins, if it goes down he loses.