Will Trump Win?

[billt]

I'm thinking yes. I really don't think Iowa matters in the least. How can it when Rick Santorum won it in 2012, and a couple months later he was taking out the trash? He's been sucking hind tit ever since. If you look back when Trump started, back in July when he was polling 3% to 5%, every political "expert" said he would be washed up in a month or two. Here he is, leading by a margin larger than all the other candidates percentage points combined.

Every time he makes a bombastic remark, again the "experts" all predicted his demise. Yet the day after he said he would kick all the Muslims out, he went up 9% in South Carolina alone. I think unprecedented anger will put him in. People today are being forced into political correctness. They have to be careful what they say. Especially around the water cooler at work. Many could be indirectly fired over political comments. Free speech seems to exist today, only when certain people want it to.

People HATE that. In the voting booth they don't have to answer to anyone. They can pull the curtain behind them, and punch Trump's card, and walk out without anyone being the wiser. People are fed up with Muslims, illegal immigration, porous borders, "black lives matter", ISIS, and all the rest. Trump is their best way to vent their anger. And no political poll can measure the anger contained in today's white majority. People are going to be voting who have not voted in the last 3 or more elections. A few blacks, women, and Mexicans can't make up for it. And the more these same "experts" predict that he can't beat Hillary in the general election, the more I believe he can. At least that's the way I see it. 

[alfsauve]

There are three things people lie about when polled or questioned.  Sex, diet and candidates.   Pollsters, believe Trump support is actually a lot high than the polls because people don't want to admit that's who they support.

I think there's a good chance he will win, because people are fed up with business as usual.  Will he be a good president?  He might surprise everybody.  Or he could be a total embarrassment.  Either way it will shake up the next two election cycles.   I think we would see movement towards term limits.

[PegLeg45]

I think he actually has a good chance.

BHO got elected on the novelty of his skin color, laying aside all common sense and real experience.

What Trump has is the novelty of his personality...... meaning he is his own man, not answering to party politics, at least for now..... and many like that he is 'different' than the others and speaks his own mind.

[Solus]

Trump, or any president, making blunders while honestly working to move this country back onto it's intended course, will be immensely more beneficial than any president working perfectly to move it from the course our founders defined.

[billt]

Trump, or any president, making blunders while honestly working to move this country back onto it's intended course, will be immensely more beneficial than any president working perfectly to move it from the course our founders defined.

Well said!

[Sponsor]

[Big Frank]

If Trump runs as an independent I don't think he'll win but would if he runs Republican. Some people will never vote independent, thinking a Democrat or Republican will always win. If he runs against Hillary he has a good chance but so does she. Some people think it's time we had a woman president just like they thought it was time we had a black president. They'll vote for her just because she's a woman.

[billt]

If Trump runs as an independent I don't think he'll win but would if he runs Republican. Some people will never vote independent, thinking a Democrat or Republican will always win.

What will kill him if he runs as an Independent is the lack of Electoral Votes, not popular vote. Delegates will never commit to an Independent candidate. The 2 party system is set up that way. Until they get rid of the Electro College, you can forget about any third party candidate ever winning. Remember, Ross Perot was the best shot a third party candidate ever had in recent times, and he did not receive a single Electro Vote.

[Solus]

The Electoral College was established, as I recall...and TomB or someone will correct me if I am mistaken, to protect against idiot voters electing a treacherous or otherwise disastrous candidate. 

Well, based on it's track record, I'd say we haven't gotten our money's worth from it..and I don't think it can be salvaged.

[tt11758]

If Trump is elected, will he be an embarrassment?

IMHO, he couldn't be as big an embarrassment as the ISIS-loving jackwagon who currently inhabits 1400 Pennsylvania Avenue.

[vincewarde]

The Electoral College was established, as I recall...and TomB or someone will correct me if I am mistaken, to protect against idiot voters electing a treacherous or otherwise disastrous candidate. 

Well, based on it's track record, I'd say we haven't gotten our money's worth from it..and I don't think it can be salvaged.

Actually that was only one reason.  The other was to give the smaller states (population wise) a bit more influence.  A popular election of presidents would result in these states being even more ignored in favor of the candidates working hard to turn out even more people in the larger states where they have an advantage.