McCain winning in new poll, follows trend

[Fatman]

Just a matter of time 'til an empty suit loses it's appeal 

McCain winning in new poll, follows trend

David Paul KuhnWed Aug 20, 9:03 AM ET

John McCain has overtaken Barack Obama in the presidential race, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released Wednesday morning.

McCain leads Obama 46 percent to 41 percent among likely voters, which is outside the poll's margin of error. Reuters/Zogby had Obama ahead by 7 points as recently as mid-July.

McCain's resurgence comes at the doorstep of the Democratic Convention, and follows other polling that collectively indicates the presidential race has become a dead heat.

Only one major national survey, a USA Today/Gallup Poll in late July, has shown McCain ahead since the general election began in early June. But that 4-point McCain lead was the mirror opposite of other national surveys taken over the same period, leaving reasonable suspicion it was an outlier.

Today's Reuters/Zogby poll, conducted Aug. 14-16, by contrast, seems to follow a recent trend.

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll released Tuesday, and taken Aug. 15-18, found that Obama's lead over McCain had fallen to within the margin of error, 45 percent to 43 percent. That same poll pegged Obama ahead by 12 points in mid-June.

A more tepid shift was measured in another national poll taken Aug. 12-17 by Quinnipiac University. That survey had Obama leading 47 percent to 42 percent. However, the same poll in mid-July had Obama leading McCain 50 percent to 41 percent.

The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press found, in a poll taken July 31-Aug. 10, that Obama was besting McCain by a narrow lead of only 46 percent to 43 percent. Pew's mid-July polling had Obama ahead by 5 points. In late June, Pew had Obama ahead by 8 points, 48 percent to 40 percent.

And by one measure, on Tuesday, McCain for the first time also pulled ahead, though tenuously, in the Electoral College count, 274 to 264, according to the RealClearPolitics average of state polling that includes narrow leads in swing states. The shift occurred after Indiana — the home of Democratic vice presidential prospect Sen. Evan Bayh — switched to McCain's electoral coffer.

The Reuters/Zogby poll, which was taken by telephone of 1,089 likely voters and had a margin of error of 3 percentage points, found that no single factor explains McCain’s gain. In that poll, the Republican presumptive nominee now narrowly leads among independents, a flip from last month. McCain has also sewn up his base, leading with conservatives 74 percent to 15 percent.

McCain continues to have more support among Republicans than Obama has from Democrats, though Pew measured an increase in support among evangelical Protestants even before the Saddleback forum Saturday night.

Perhaps most startlingly to Democrats, Reuters/Zogby measures that McCain is seen as the better manager of the economy over Obama, 49 percent to 40 percent. In that poll, half of voters cited the economy as the most important issue, as other surveys have as well.

The results also follow sustained attacks by a more aggressive McCain campaign and Obama's vacation last week.

Pew has also found that McCain has made gains with the public "as the candidate who would use the best judgment in a crisis" and "an increasing percentage see him as the candidate who can get things done." The Quinnipiac poll found that likely voters view McCain as "better qualified" to "deal with Russia," 55 percent to 27 percent.

The Gallup daily tracking poll, which samples roughly 1,000 Americans daily, has shown a steady race all summer. For the months of June and July Obama held an average lead of 3 percentage points. That same average 3-point lead held in August, until this week. Gallup polling since Monday has shown a tighter race, though not outside the boundaries of past summer fluctuation. The latest Gallup measure shows Obama only ahead by 1 percentage point, 45 percent to 44 percent.

Still, by early August, even the steadiness of Obama's narrow lead was seen as an underperformance by leading pollsters, considering the constellation of issues — from the flagging economy to the unpopular president to eight in ten Americans saying the nation is on the wrong track — that favor any generic Democrat this year.

Obama now will head into the convention effectively tied with McCain, presenting Obama with the ideal opportunity to regain his footing.

This week's polling represents the last clear gauge of the presidential race until the second week of September. Between then and today both nominees are expected to announce their No. 2 and the political conventions will take place. The condensed schedule means that bounces in the polls may be both fleeting and difficult to measure in the two weeks ahead.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080820/pl_politico/12656;_ylt=An3hp88lBcljofA_ozOHDsuyFz4D

[Pathfinder]

Interesting tidbit, b-ho's foreign trip (the one just completed to show that he has foreign policy experience?) gained him nothing, not one little bump in the polls.

He should slap on a helmet and "drive" a tank like what's his name did (he was in the commander's position as I recall, maybe the reloader's, but not the driver's).

[Fatman]

He looks ridiculus...



 
and he bowled a 37...


 


The moral:  never try to be what you're not.

[tombogan03884]

He looks ridiculus...



 
and he bowled a 37...


 


The moral:  never try to be what you're not.

You mean like, Presidential ?

[MikeBjerum]

Apparently someone did not get the memo that the standard uniform for bowling is not a suit and tie

If you want to be "one of the guys" you need to learn how to relate.  You can't just pick up a bowling ball, shoulder a rifle or shotgun, fondle a pistol, ride a bike, whip a pole and birdnest a bait casting reel, etc., etc., etc. a relate to the general public.  You need to show appreciation for our interests and differences, and listen, including asking questions, to learn who we really are.  After all that WE will decide if WE trust you to do what WE feel is best for US.

[Sponsor]

[tt11758]

The Sioux City Journal reports today that one of the state democrat bigwigs thinks Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucus status might be in danger.  He thinks the dems will make that change if Obama is not elected, as was quoted as saying that Obama's loss this fall is "looking more and more likely." 

I just LOVE the smell of liberal despair in the morning.......smells like......VICTORY.   

[Teresa Heilevang]

A 35?? 
 Good Lord.. I could bowl a 35 using my feet.. 

And  uhmmmm, m58???
Aboput that comment on 'birdnest a bait casting reel,??

I resemble that remark...