Sadly, I am coming to the conclusion that we are headed to a place where the only question is: Will the US split up peacefully or through conflict? I don't want this. I'm not working for this However, I am beginning to think a break up may be unavoidable.
I lived in California all my life, until June of 2015 - when my wife and I escaped to Idaho. This definitely gives me a different perspective than many people have. Here are some thoughts:
1) Coming to Idaho was unlike any move I made within California - even the move from the Bay Area to a very conservative part of California. In so many ways, it is like moving to another nation. I think a move to Texas, Georgia or Kentucky would have felt the same way.
2) The CALEXIT group is not a joke - they almost certainly will qualify a measure for the 2018 or 2019 ballot. They already have the support of one in three Californians. They have already figured out that they can capitalize on every liberal cause - gun control, isolationism, immigration - you name it, in order to increase that number. All they need in the California vote is 50% plus one. This number will also go up as Trump keeps his promises. SCOTUS decisions on things like gun rights will further anger and motivate the voting public to vote in favor of leaving.
California is huge. It will not be an easy political task to keep California if they want out. They have a huge congressional delegation - which means they can press hard for the necessary constitutional amendment. Some on the right may look at this as an opportunity to secure a huge Republican super-majority - simply by getting rid of California.
3) The next question is: If California leves, how long will the other West coast and Northeast states want to stay in a nation where Republicans and/or populists will rule for the foreseeable future? My guess is, not long.
What I would see at the end of a hopefully peaceful split is 2-3 nations. WA, OR and CA on the West coast as one new nation - perhaps with the sought after state of Jefferson composed of Southern OR and Northern CA counties providing the remaining US states with access to the Pacific. The Northeast states would form another nation, perhaps united with the West coast states, perhaps not. The remaining states would remain in the US - even those that are left of center, like CO and NM. These states are geographically isolated from other liberal states and not as far left as NY or CA. They also are not big enough to force their way out.
If - God forbid - this happens, there will be many people moving to new states. Hopefully these new nations would be able to maintain strong economic ties and, perhaps, strong military ties.
IMHO, the next few years will be critical. If the people in these blue states buy into what their leaders are pushing, a split may be unavoidable. Watch the process of confirming the next SCOTUS justice - it will be the most vicious in living memory........
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