SUPER El Niño 2023 is Going to be a Beast!

[Big Frank]

After being concerned about it for months, on June 8th, climate scientists confirmed the El Niño event for this year. They're calling it a Super El Niño, and this is going to be a really hot Summer. I already knew it was going to be a hot Summer, because I already had both air conditioners running before I woke up on the first day of Summer. I had them both running all night the last day of Spring. Before that I was running the one in the bedroom mainly at night and the one downstairs when I was down here, but it was staying too hot at night, and taking too long to cool off again. You can expect it to be even worse next year. Scientists are predicting 2024 to be the hottest year ever recorded! Just let that sink in for a moment, then reevaluate whatever opinion you may have about climate change. The warmer winters are nice, and as long as I'm not forced to live where it gets really hot and humid, like Louisiana, the summers are tolerable too. But there are some places it's going to get so hot, people will feel like they're going to spontaneously combust. But it's a dry heat.

[alfsauve]

Don’t pull that “dry heat” crap on me.  It’ll kill you quicker than any 110% humidity in the low country. 

While this might be the hottest year ever recorded, in the big scheme of things that’s ~200 years if that. Even then how accurate where those measurements?  This will be far from the climate extreme over human history.

[Pathfinder]

To Alf's point, we are still moving out of an ice age, the fourth in a series over the past 750,000 years or so according tot he scientists. The last glaciers retreated in North America about 12,000 +/-years ago so it ain't been that long since we would have been freezing. 200 years is a VERY short timespan, geologically speaking. Not even a blink of the eye. It is our natural hubris to think it's all about us. Guess what, it's not.

Is the earth warming? Yes. No. Maybe. Don't know. What we do know is that various organizations who have been responsible for the data fed into the climate models (and that is all they are, models; think the spaghetti models for hurricanes) have "cooked the books" so to speak so they get the results they want - and that will give them the greatest financial rewards. And if they can't tell us if, where or when a hurricane will hit a specific point in 5 days, what makes you think they can predict the temperature in 100 years, 50 years, or even next year?

Besides, I learned a long time ago that all models are wrong. Some are useful.

[Big Frank]

It won't be as deadly as a year there was no summer and people starved from lack of food, but this year will be a killer. All climate extremes suck, but when volcanic ash blocks out the sun it's not part of a yearly pattern, like increasing heat. This won't be the worst extreme, but it's a pattern.

[Big Frank]

To Alf's point, we are still moving out of an ice age, the fourth in a series over the past 750,000 years or so according tot he scientists. The last glaciers retreated in North America about 12,000 +/-years ago so it ain't been that long since we would have been freezing. 200 years is a VERY short timespan, geologically speaking. Not even a blink of the eye. It is our natural hubris to think it's all about us. Guess what, it's not.

Is the earth warming? Yes. No. Maybe. Don't know. What we do know is that various organizations who have been responsible for the data fed into the climate models (and that is all they are, models; think the spaghetti models for hurricanes) have "cooked the books" so to speak so they get the results they want - and that will give them the greatest financial rewards. And if they can't tell us if, where or when a hurricane will hit a specific point in 5 days, what makes you think they can predict the temperature in 100 years, 50 years, or even next year?

Besides, I learned a long time ago that all models are wrong. Some are useful.

I mostly agree with you. The weatherman can't even tell me if it's going to rain tomorrow or not. But there are signs they've been looking for that certain models predicted, and when those things happen it's like the magic 8 ball ALL SIGNS POINT TO...

[Sponsor]

[alfsauve]

Periodically I track our local weather prognosticator to see the accuracy.   I follow the WSB-TV weather who also, being owned by the same company, is the ATL Journal newspapers weather source.

Here's the rubs.

-TV News gives out weather predictions based on "daytime" highs and "overnight" lows.  This in contrast to the NWS and the "records" which are based on a 24hr day 00:00:00 to 23:59:59.  So sometimes the daily high isn't the daytime high and visa-versa.

-TV News rarely gives or at least dwells on yesterday's numbers.  And when they do they don't make it clear whether they reporting "daytime/nighttime" or 24hr day.

I base my data on the TV news projected highs and lows from their 6pm broadcast.  I record they projected high and low for next day, 3 days and 5 days.  I base my actuals on the NWS at Fulton County Airport, not ATL.  ATL numbers are skewed because of all the concrete and jet exhaust.   I record the time of each actual high and low.    Throw out the anomalies like overnight highs and daytime lows.

I only do this about once every year or two but here's what I found.

1)  On average they're usually within one or two degrees overall.  I've even heard them tout that number with pride.

2)  At least once, in every month I've charted, they're off on one predication by 5 to 7 degrees.    Usually they predict 7 degrees too high for a low. Let that sink in.   They might predict 35 for a low and the actual will be 28. 

[Pathfinder]

But there are signs they've been looking for that certain models predicted, and when those things happen it's like the magic 8 ball ALL SIGNS POINT TO...

No, it's the broken clock syndrome, right twice a day. Or perhaps it's the "Throw enough crap on the wall and something is bound to stick" syndrome. Or "Even a blind pig finds a truffle once in a while".

Whatever it is, it ain't science. It's a model, just a model.

[Majer]

[MikeBjerum]

To Alf's point, we are still moving out of an ice age, the fourth in a series over the past 750,000 years or so according tot he scientists. The last glaciers retreated in North America about 12,000 +/-years ago so it ain't been that long since we would have been freezing. 200 years is a VERY short timespan, geologically speaking. Not even a blink of the eye. It is our natural hubris to think it's all about us. Guess what, it's not.

Is the earth warming? Yes. No. Maybe. Don't know. What we do know is that various organizations who have been responsible for the data fed into the climate models (and that is all they are, models; think the spaghetti models for hurricanes) have "cooked the books" so to speak so they get the results they want - and that will give them the greatest financial rewards. And if they can't tell us if, where or when a hurricane will hit a specific point in 5 days, what makes you think they can predict the temperature in 100 years, 50 years, or even next year?

Besides, I learned a long time ago that all models are wrong. Some are useful.

I thought this was the fifth ice age that we are climbing out of. Fourth or fifth doesn't matter. Either one demonstrates that this earth has been there, done that in the past, and that while our activities may have some effect, it is going to happe one way or the other.

[Pathfinder]

I thought this was the fifth ice age that we are climbing out of. Fourth or fifth doesn't matter. Either one demonstrates that this earth has been there, done that in the past, and that while our activities may have some effect, it is going to happe one way or the other.

I learned a now-culture-appropriating insensitive and probably mysogenistic mnemonic for remembering the North American glaciations: Never Kick Indian Woman.
N - Nebraskan
K - Kansan
I - Iowan
W - Wisconsinan

These were all labeled indicating the southernmost advent of the ice sheet. Think about that for a moment. An ice sheet 3-9,000 meters thick sitting where Milwaukee is today.