Author Topic: Ammo Supply Problems - need your thoughts  (Read 14056 times)

Conagher 45

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Re: Ammo Supply Problems - need your thoughts
« Reply #30 on: March 11, 2009, 09:16:25 PM »
Need to order .45 cal and .357 mold from Lee, I Have a good supply of lead on hand, Just need to lay in a supply of primers and powder.
There is room for all of God's creatures ....., That would be on my plate right next to the taters and gravy.

Teresa Heilevang

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Re: Ammo Supply Problems - need your thoughts
« Reply #31 on: March 11, 2009, 09:39:58 PM »
Better stock up on Beetle Spins too  ;)

Don't worry... Beetle Spins I have.. and a couple tackle boxes chuck full of my "lucky lures"..
 Be afraid big fishy's.. be very afraid.... ;D ;D
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fullautovalmet76

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Re: Ammo Supply Problems - need your thoughts
« Reply #32 on: March 11, 2009, 11:38:12 PM »
I looked at Olin corporation's (makers of Winchester ammo) 10K for 2008 (their annual filing with the SEC) and I noticed they mention they have shifted their production focus more to satisfy government and law enforcement demand. This leads me to believe that we are competing, in part, with the feds and local law enforcement. When these factors are added in with those already cited in this topic, it starts to make sense why we have a shortage.

I do believe there are many who went out and bought guns out of fear (justified at that) but really do not have a commitment to our community like we do. Like Overload stated, in the next few years there will probably be a glut of used guns on the market so it will be a great buying opportunity for us but bad news for manufacturers. For the future of ammo, let's think about the next step. It would not surprise me in the next few days or months, we will see ammo and reloading components being sold on sites like Gun Broker or Craig's List at wildly inflated prices. Then the crash in the ammo market will come, probably later this year or next year, which will present another buying opportunity. How do I know all of this? I am making some educated guesses based upon my experience in the real estate and stock markets. People tend to do what people do no matter what the product is that is in short supply or that is being bid up. One thing that will also bring this down is if personal consumption starts to drop, or real personal income starts to fall. With credit cards at the max and no raise from the company, people will have to make cuts to their discretionary spending. For the people who are speculating in this market, the "day traders" if you will, will be the first to be forced to the sidelines.

I guess what I'm saying is to stay the course and buy wisely. Like I said in another thread, I have learned some valuable lessons from this. I learned I love my guns and shooting so much that I am going to make sure that I am always able to continue with this part of my life. For me it's not just a hobby, it is a part of who I am.

Thanos

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Re: Ammo Supply Problems - need your thoughts
« Reply #33 on: March 11, 2009, 11:48:09 PM »
I don't know if it will be a wash of used guns, as many people I know (a lot in the UK) understand that guns are important, but think it is just fun to go shoot them. I bought both my guns in the past six months, I won't ever part with them.

tombogan03884

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Re: Ammo Supply Problems - need your thoughts
« Reply #34 on: March 12, 2009, 12:12:50 PM »
From today's Tacticalwire   (  www.thetacticalwire.com   )

 Editor's Notebook: Where's the Ammo?
By Rich Grassi

On Tuesday, we received a writer email asking about what he called "the current ammo shortage." He specifically asked about rumors that factories had cut back on production, mentioning Remington by name. Our reader went on to state that "competition for raw material should be down given the world economic slowdown, yet prices continue to rise and availability is shrinking."

We respond to our readers, even if some of the ground had been covered before - we get new subscribers regularly and he likely hadn't seen our previous entry on the "why is ammo scarce" issue.

Before this email arrived, I was having breakfast with firearms expert, trainer, armorer and philosopher Mike Rafferty. He is one who always has an eye out for ammo, particularly now.

"There's buzz on the internet forums that won't go away," he said. "The rumor is that ammo is scarce because of increased law enforcement training."

I snorted. Training in law enforcement? Who are they kidding?

"Well, NYPD is giving fifty rounds apiece of carbine training to an increasing number of cops - newly graduated recruits, I hear - who aren't in the ESU." ESU is the Emergency Services Unit, the precursor to SWAT, an outfit that has broader responsibilities than normal SWAT outfits.

Fifty rounds of carbine shooting isn't "training." That said, it's more trigger time than they would have had. If it hadn't been for Mumbai, they wouldn't have trained up more cops on the M4-style carbine. Still, when you have thousands of cops, 50 rounds a head starts to add up.

I asked Mike what he thought. "People are hoarding. When they find ammo anywhere, they snap it up before someone else gets it."

The increase in demand causes increases in price.

I sent a note around to the ammunition industry asking the question our reader asked.

Here are a few comments from Remington - specifically from John Chisnall, Director - Brand Management, Ammunition.

"Strong 2008 4th quarter hunting seasons and "putting food on the table" in these difficult economic times have driven some of the strong demand being experienced in hunting ammunition categories.

"Regarding supply, our factory is working overtime and doing the best they can to address the demand.

"With regards to pricing, costs have stabilized as commodity prices and energy prices have stabilized, and pricing has decreased in some categories despite strong shooter demand."

That's the official, on-the-record statement. We appreciate Mr. Chisnall taking time to address the issue.

Another ammunition industry insider stated that a company he's involved with is making more ammo now than they ever have. That company is experiencing some delays in getting certain supplies but runs hard to catch up.

Prices have gone up on "black rifles" and handguns meant for defensive work, but no one seems to hit the internet forums with that . . .

The ammo shortage situation? It's partially fed by reporting on shortages and self fulfilling prophecy, no doubt. If shooters hear that ammo is short on supply, they'll snag more than they need, hedging against future shortages.

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Re: Ammo Supply Problems - need your thoughts
« Reply #35 on: Today at 12:40:25 AM »

MikeBjerum

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Re: Ammo Supply Problems - need your thoughts
« Reply #35 on: March 12, 2009, 02:10:20 PM »
I have a friend that I worked with last month that lives out near Rapid City, SD.  He is an electrician and says that Black Hills is a steady job for him.  They are expanding and adding more equipment all the time.  Doesn't sound like they are slowing down at all.
If I appear taller than other men it is because I am standing on the shoulders of others.

ellis4538

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Re: Ammo Supply Problems - need your thoughts
« Reply #36 on: March 12, 2009, 08:39:12 PM »
Haz, I know from watching the other shooting show on Wed. evening that CCI produces 4 million .22's per day...that's 20 million in a 5 day week.  If they can do that, they and the other companies making primers can do at least that production.  If half goes into loaded ammo and the other half to bulk sales that should be plenty for the general public!

JMHO

Richard
Used to be "The only thing to FEAR was FEAR ITSELF", nowadays "The only thing to FEAR is GETTING CAUGHT!"

Hazcat

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Re: Ammo Supply Problems - need your thoughts
« Reply #37 on: March 12, 2009, 08:44:23 PM »
Ellis,

ya got to think about military and leo as wll.  But I still think that this is a false shortage caused by; 1. new customers brought on by BHO, 2. hoarding, and 3. short sightedness on mfg part.
All tipoes and misspelings are copi-righted.  Pleeze do not reuse without ritten persimmons  :D

cookie62

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Re: Ammo Supply Problems - need your thoughts
« Reply #38 on: March 12, 2009, 09:39:46 PM »
Right after Y2K scare was over I bought several tins of 7.62x39 dirt cheap from a guy who bought a bunch up. If I remember right ammo was scarce then too.


Maybe I'll give him a call in a couple months................. ;)
A bird in the hand is worth..Well, about a box of shells!
Yes, I'm bitter and cling to guns and religion..

TAB

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Re: Ammo Supply Problems - need your thoughts
« Reply #39 on: March 12, 2009, 09:50:17 PM »
I worked in a FFL right before y2k... people where buying cases of buck shot.   I can't tell you the exact ammounts that were sold, but in one weekend we went thru 3 full pallets of buck shot.

I always break all the clay pigeons,  some times its even with lead.

 

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