Author Topic: Air France jet likely broke apart above ocean  (Read 3470 times)

long762range

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Air France jet likely broke apart above ocean
« on: June 03, 2009, 09:20:03 PM »
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iOegnahAFcEgwJZ4WKGkVz9Dgq5wD98JG00G0

Air France jet likely broke apart above ocean
By FEDERICO ESCHER and BRADLEY BROOKS – 3 hours ago

FERNANDO DE NORONHA, Brazil (AP) — Military planes located new debris from Air France Flight 447 Wednesday while investigators focused on a nightmarish ordeal in which the jetliner broke up over the Atlantic as it flew through a violent storm.

Heavy weather delayed until next week the arrival of deep-water submersibles considered key to finding the black box voice and data recorders that will help answer the question of what happened to the airliner, which disappeared Sunday with 228 people on board. But even with the equipment, the lead French investigator questioned whether the recorders would ever be found in such a deep and rugged part of the ocean.

As the first Brazilian military ships neared the search area, investigators were relying heavily on the plane's automated messages to help reconstruct what happened to the jet as it flew through towering thunderstorms. They detail a series of failures that end with its systems shutting down, suggesting the plane broke apart in the sky, according to an aviation industry official with knowledge of the investigation, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the crash.

The pilot sent a manual signal at 11 p.m. local time saying he was flying through an area of "CBs" — black, electrically charged cumulonimbus clouds that come with violent winds and lightning. Satellite data has shown that towering thunderheads were sending 100 mph (160 kph) updraft winds into the jet's flight path at the time.

Ten minutes later, a cascade of problems began: Automatic messages indicate the autopilot had disengaged, a key computer system switched to alternative power, and controls needed to keep the plane stable had been damaged. An alarm sounded indicating the deterioration of flight systems.

Three minutes after that, more automatic messages reported the failure of systems to monitor air speed, altitude and direction. Control of the main flight computer and wing spoilers failed as well.

The last automatic message, at 11:14 p.m., signaled loss of cabin pressure and complete electrical failure — catastrophic events in a plane that was likely already plunging toward the ocean.

"This clearly looks like the story of the airplane coming apart," the airline industry official told The Associated Press. "We just don't know why it did, but that is what the investigation will show."

French and Brazilian officials had already announced some of these details, but the more complete chronology was published Wednesday by Brazil's O Estado de S. Paulo newspaper, citing an unidentified Air France source, and confirmed to the AP by the aviation industry source.

Air France spokesman Nicolas Petteau referred questions about the messages to the French accident investigation agency, BEA, whose spokesman Martine Del Bono said the agency won't comment. Brazil's Defense Minister Nelson Jobim also declined to comment, saying that the accident "investigation is being done by France; Brazil's only responsibility is to find and pick up the pieces."

Other experts agreed that the automatic reports of system failures on the plane strongly suggest it broke up in the air, perhaps due to fierce thunderstorms, turbulence, lightning or a catastrophic combination of events.

"These are telling us the story of the crash. They are not explaining what happened to cause the crash," said Bill Voss, president and CEO of the Flight Safety Foundation in Alexandria, Va. "This is the documentation of the seconds when control was lost and the aircraft started to break up in air."

Voss stressed that the messages alone were not enough to understand why the Air France jet went down, noting that the black boxes will have far more information to help determine the cause.

One fear — terrorism — was dismissed Wednesday by all three countries involved in the search and recovery effort. France's defense minister and the Pentagon said there were no signs that terrorism was involved, and Jobim said "that possibility hasn't even been considered."

A U.S. Navy P-3C Orion surveillance plane, a French AWACS radar plane and two other French military planes joined Brazil's Air Force in trying to spot debris and narrow the search zone.

Brazil's Defense Minister Nelson Jobim said debris discovered so far was spread over a wide area, with some 230 kilometers (140 miles) separating pieces of wreckage they have spotted. The floating debris includes a 23-foot (seven-meter) chunk of plane and a 12-mile-long (20-kilometer-long) oil slick, but pilots have spotted no signs of survivors, Air Force spokesman Col. Jorge Amaral said.

"Oil stains on the water might exclude the possibility of an explosion, because there was no fire," Defense Minister Nelson Jobim told reporters Wednesday.

The new debris was discovered about 55 miles (90 kilometers) south of where searchers a day earlier found an airplane seat, a fuel slick, an orange life vest and pieces of white debris. The original debris was found roughly 400 miles (640 kilometers) northeast of the Fernando de Noronha islands off Brazil's northern coast, an area where the ocean floor drops as low as 22,950 feet (7,000 meters) below sea level.

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twyacht

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Re: Air France jet likely broke apart above ocean
« Reply #1 on: June 03, 2009, 09:37:05 PM »
Now the news is not ruling out previous terror threats that delayed the original flight in S. America. 

Other experts agreed that the automatic reports of system failures on the plane strongly suggest it broke up in the air, perhaps due to fierce thunderstorms, turbulence, lightning or a catastrophic combination of events.

Old phrase for aircraft regarding construction. Air bus are the composite, injection molded airframes, not as much steel on there as others.

If it ain't Boeing, I ain't going.

Granted, they were flying over the Tropical Convergence Zone, at the equator, they have storms that make most look like a Spring shower. Could have lost radar also. Thunderheads to 45,000 ft. fly through it? and microbursts go to another level. They had straight line winds at ground level in the mid west to 100 kts.

Get to 35,000 ft. and fly into a squall at 350 kts, hit a wall of 150 kt. crosswinds, air pockets, and SHTF in an instant.

We may never know, I hope they can at least find a reason somehow.
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tombogan03884

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Re: Air France jet likely broke apart above ocean
« Reply #2 on: June 03, 2009, 09:50:16 PM »
"Wind shear" is an atmospheric phenomenon that has been tearing planes apart for ages, It doesn't even have to be associated with a storm, I'm sure there are pilots here who can explain it more fully but twyacht summed it up pretty good.

Rastus

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Re: Air France jet likely broke apart above ocean
« Reply #3 on: June 03, 2009, 09:55:31 PM »
"Wind shear" is an atmospheric phenomenon that has been tearing planes apart for ages, It doesn't even have to be associated with a storm, I'm sure there are pilots here who can explain it more fully but twyacht summed it up pretty good.

If there is truth to it, I want to know why they flew through a thunderstorm?  Even the King air I'm getting on in the morning has radar to fly around storms.  Fuel is not a good reason...flight time is not a good reason....has anyone pondered why otherwise rational pilots would fly through a thunderstorm?
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tombogan03884

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Re: Air France jet likely broke apart above ocean
« Reply #4 on: June 03, 2009, 10:00:46 PM »
The same reason most reasonable competent people do dumb sh!t, seemed like a good idea at the time and then things started to go wrong.
Ask your pilot about CAT Clear Air Turbulence.

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Re: Air France jet likely broke apart above ocean
« Reply #5 on: Today at 08:37:23 AM »

long762range

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Re: Air France jet likely broke apart above ocean
« Reply #5 on: June 03, 2009, 10:09:59 PM »
The storm itself appears to have been 600-800 miles wide.  Very difficult to go around.  They had already flown 4 hours across the Atlantic when it met this storm.  The air craft flew 75 miles through the storm (12 min) before it broke up.

http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/af447/

Tim Vasquez did a detailed meteorological analysis of the conditions the Air France jet experienced.
"If you carry a gun, people will call you paranoid. That's ridiculous.  If I have a gun, what in the hell do I have to be paranoid for."

Rastus

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Re: Air France jet likely broke apart above ocean
« Reply #6 on: June 03, 2009, 10:14:38 PM »
The storm itself appears to have been 600-800 miles wide.  Very difficult to go around.  They had already flown 4 hours across the Atlantic when it met this storm.

http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/af447/

Tim Vasquez did a detailed meteorological analysis of the conditions the Air France jet experienced.

Thanks, that would be difficult to go around.
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TAB

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Re: Air France jet likely broke apart above ocean
« Reply #7 on: June 04, 2009, 04:02:30 AM »
i'd bet it was lighting strike(s) that  brought the plane down.   lots of reports of computer failures.  those planes are 100% fly  by wire, there is a no mechaincal link between the controls and the control surfaces.
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philw

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Re: Air France jet likely broke apart above ocean
« Reply #8 on: June 04, 2009, 07:40:47 AM »
i'd bet it was lighting strike(s) that  brought the plane down.   lots of reports of computer failures.  those planes are 100% fly  by wire, there is a no mechaincal link between the controls and the control surfaces.

nope

Lightning generally does very little to an aircraft. At the most you'll sometimes have a couple of scorch marks at the point it was struck

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Hazcat

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Re: Air France jet likely broke apart above ocean
« Reply #9 on: June 04, 2009, 07:47:50 AM »
I read something this morning saying it was flying too slow.  I have know idea how they would know but that is what I read.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L413345.htm
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