Air France jet likely broke apart above ocean

[philw]

I read something this morning saying it was flying too slow.  I have know idea how they would know but that is what I read.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L413345.htm

The plane sent no mayday signals before crashing, only automatic messages showing electrical faults and a loss of pressure shortly after it entered a zone of stormy weather.

when things turn to shit in an aircraft, you have a list of a million things to do.
They all have a priority. In most cases, putting out a mayday call is at about number 792.
You do the things that will make whatever is happening better. In most cases a mayday call does not improve things, so it has little priority.
There are exceptions, but mostly the calls happen once the initial recovery actions have taken effect....and if they don't work, then the priority of the call never gets high enough.

[jnevis]

nope
Lightning generally does very little to an aircraft. At the most you'll sometimes have a couple of scorch marks at the point it was struck

Hate to differ but a lightening strike will disable auto flight control systems, com/nav systems and generally jack up any size aircraft if the systems aren't shielded right.  I've spent plenty of time rebuilding avionic systems on a plane that got close enough to a T-storm that the shielding was blown and the radios failed, it hadn't even been hit.  I was in a P-3 that actually was hit and the plane stayed airborne but comms were marginal at best.  It hit the wing so not to much damage.  If it had hit the tail or closer to the fuselage it would have done a number on the electrical system.  Hell my house took a hit a couple nights ago and we still haven't got cable and the internet working right.  Same deal for a plane.

WX avoidance radar is good but that far out that high up there really aren't a whole lot of options.  A small storm can disrupt (push around like a doll) an aircraft over 30 miles away.  Something as big as they are saying and you only have a straight through and pray.  Offsetting course uses a lot of fuel and requires a lot of work so you get around it and get back towere you want to go.  An International flight that is say 12 hrs long normally can become a 14-16 hour flight if the wx causes them to deviate.  To keep within minimum fuel levels they would have to either land at an alternate or push through.

philw:  Ain't that the truth: AVIATE, NAVIGATE, COMMUNICATE  Keep the plane flying, find out where you are and where a safe place to land is, then tell anyone that will listen you have a problem and what you are doing about it.

[long762range]

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2009-06-03-air-france-flight_N.htm

Wreckage yields clues in jet crash

Search vessels prowling the Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday found a 23-foot-long chunk of Air France Flight 447, the largest piece discovered yet in the hunt for clues in the mystery of the downed airliner.
The latest piece of wreckage floated about 55 miles from where debris was originally spotted on Tuesday. The enormous distance between the debris fields strongly indicates that the plane came apart in the air Sunday night, showering parts across a wide swath of ocean, aviation experts said. The Airbus 330-200 was carrying 228 people from Rio de Janeiro to Paris when it entered a fast-developing thunderstorm.

Air France's CEO Pierre-Henri Gourgeon told families of passengers on Flight 447 that the jetliner broke apart and they must abandon hope that anyone survived, said Guillaume Denoix de Saint-Marc, a grief counselor who was asked by Paris prosecutors to help counsel family members and was at the Wednesday meeting.

U.S. aviation experts monitoring the recovery said that information released so far suggests the jet was jarred while cruising at 35,000 feet by an external force that knocked out key electrical systems and may have broken up the plane. Satellite data show thunderheads were sending 100-mph updrafts into the jet's flight path.

"It is likely that we do have an in-flight breakup," aviation-safety consultant John Cox said.

Also among the debris was a 12-mile oil slick. "Oil stains on the water might exclude the possibility of an explosion, because there was no fire," Brazilian Defense Minister Nelson Jobim said.

Search crews continued sailing toward the remote ocean spot hundreds of miles from Brazil's northern coast. It will take until early next week for the most important vessel to arrive: a French ship with remote-controlled submersibles that will search for "black box" recorders.

Crew conversations and airplane movements contained in the recorders would be vital to solving the crash, but France's chief accident investigator, Paul-Louis Arslanian, said Wednesday that he is "not optimistic" about finding the two boxes because they are likely a couple of miles underwater on a craggy ocean floor.

In the minutes before disappearing, the jet sent a series of automated messages indicating damaged controls, electrical failure and a loss of cabin pressure.

"There was some kind of in-flight violent" incident, said Bill Waldock, an air-crash expert at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Prescott, Ariz.

Waldock suspects weather — namely, the 100-mph winds the airplane apparently encountered that could have gotten underneath the wings and shaken the plane. "If they hit a 100-mph updraft while they were going 525 mph, it would have thrown them violently," Waldock said. "It's way beyond what the airplane is designed to accept."

The force could have bent or torn off a wing, Waldock said.

Extreme winds also could have blown the airplane into an unnatural position — nose down, or angling sharply to one side — that can lead to sharp acceleration as a plane tries to right itself, said former Boeing accident investigator Kevin Darcy. Usually a plane's computer will quickly regain control, but not always, Darcy said.

"In a loss of control, the plane speeds up. It goes faster than it's designed to, and you could have a flutter or structural problem where the airplane shakes itself apart," Darcy said.

Another possibility is lightning causing some kind of catastrophic damage, although many experts say the odds of that happening are extremely low because modern-day planes are designed to withstand lightning strikes. Several planes in the 1960s were downed when lightning hit a wing — the typical location for strikes — and ignited a fuel tank. Airplane redesigns moved fuel tanks to safer locations and made planes generally more resistant to strikes, Darcy said.

However, some modern planes are made of composite materials that may not be as durable against lightning, said former National Transportation Safety Board inspector general Mary Schiavo. A strike could knock out a plane's electrical system, ignite a fire or damage the fuselage, Schiavo said.

"If you get a bolt of lightning, anything can go apart, depending on what's the voltage," Schiavo said.

A sudden jolt also could have come from a bomb. Officials have discounted terrorism, and Brazilian Defense Minister Nelson Jobim said, "That possibility hasn't even been considered." Former Boeing safety engineer Todd Curtis said foul play is possible, albeit unlikely. "At this point in the investigation, nothing can be ruled out.

[tt11758]

One would think that had it been terrorism somebody would've claimed responsibility by now.

[tombogan03884]

One would think that had it been terrorism somebody would've claimed responsibility by now.

Maybe not if it was aimed at an individual, but there are no reports of any potential target individuals being aboard.
Under the circumstances weather is a sufficient suspect, airplanes and thunderstorms do not mix well.

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[TAB]

nope

Lightning generally does very little to an aircraft. At the most you'll sometimes have a couple of scorch marks at the point it was struck

generally, you are correct.  Light strikes don't do alot of damage to a aircraft.  but your assuming every thing was installed and sheilded correctly.  I've seen the aftermath of several striked to light aircraft, 9x out of 10 it frys something.