Ukraine vs. Russia

[Rastus]

I don't believe Putin cares anything about his human losses.  I do believe that he has to be successful or he will be replaced. 

If failure means Putin getting the boot I will not be surprised if he ramps up the use of chemical weapons and fuel-air bombs in an indiscriminate manner. 

For me it's hard to know what is truth and what is a lie.  The same people who provided the propaganda that covered up a stolen US Presidential election are telling us there are no US biological research centers in the Ukraine...then the deputy undersecretary of State admitted there were labs.  You can't believe the US news media, "the swamp" or the Biden administration and you can't believe the Russians so what do you believe...   

I see the map of what Putin has taken in Ukraine.  The major Ukraine cities, if not overrun, are surrounded.  Right now, though protracted, it's looking like a bloody, messy 4th quarter win coming for Putin. 

[billt]

Russia will win the battles, but ultimately lose the war. Just like we did in Vietnam and Afghanistan. And the Soviets did in Afghanistan as well. We, (and the Russians), are good at coming in with overwhelming force. We, (and they), simply have the large numbers and superior weapons starting out.

But fighting a guerrilla war takes undying fortitude. We didn't have it in Vietnam or Afghanistan, because it just wasn't worth the blood and treasure. And it's the same for Putin here. The Ukrainian people are much like the Mujahideen were in Afghanistan.

They simply won't quit, and will fight to the death of the last man. Russia has never fought a war like that. It's different when you're fighting on your own soil, that someone else wants to take away from you. As opposed to invading to add to your countries glory and size. The Ukrainian's HAVE to fight. The Russians were TOLD to fight.

These people have no where else to go. They would rather die than lose. We can't even imagine fighting a war like that. And neither can the Russian army. Remember, they were never on board with this whole thing to begin with. Putin pumped them full of bull$h!t. 

[Rastus]

So long as the Ukranians can receive arms they can fight.  Like the NVA.  When we hit Hanoi and mined the harbor the North Vietnamese went to the negotiating table...which meant nothing in the end.  Had the government to the north been eradicated AND the south not been corrupt things may have been different in Vietnam.  But it wasn't.

I do remember Ukraine being a Soviet state.  There were no relavent revolts then.  I believe they can once again be conquered if the Russians can stop the flow of arms into the nation....though there may be so much ammo and so many guns already in that it will go the way you speculate. 

Putin isn't trashing the farming areas.  He's controlling the populations.  They may hold out for a long time...but one day their food will run out.  Will the Russians hold out longer or will they fold?  Time will tell.

[Big Frank]

Remember when Russia was a superpower to be feared and respected? And they had good tanks?

God bless Ukraine. May St. Javelin watch over and protect her.

I share the sentiments of the 13 Ukrainian soldiers defending Snake Island who replied to a Russian warship, "Russian warship, go fu*k yourself."

They're fighting for their freedom and their homeland. I found out today that Kel-Tec was sending a free shipment of guns to Ukraine after one of their distributors wasn't heard from again. At least they weren't disarmed by their government like the nanny state of (Not So) Great Britain before WWII when NRA members and other American civilians supplied members of the home guard.

[Jim Kennedy-ar154me]

. At least they weren't disarmed by their government like the nanny state of (Not So) Great Britain before WWII when NRA members and other American civilians supplied members of the home guard.

Something I would have to think twice about now considering what the British Government has done to law-abiding gun owners there. Of course, the Government was only able to do this because the "subjects" allowed it. It still angers me that they were helped and turned around and put themselves back in the exact same predicament they were in before the war. Some people/countries never learn.

[Sponsor]

[billt]

Putin's campaign is just about stalled. His troops are being killed left and right.

"Their maneuver forces on the ground are essentially stalled," Austin said Sunday during an appearance on CBS’ "Face The Nation." "It's had the effect of him moving his forces into a wood chipper."

https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/ukraine-russia-live-updates-03-21-2022

[billt]

Now Putin is placing his own spies under house arrest. He is blaming them because this entire invasion has bogged down, and all but ground to a halt.

Now it's being told that he actually had his troops B.S.'ed into thinking they would be welcomed by the Ukrainian citizens.... Instead they were shot at, and a large number of them killed.

https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/ukraine-russia-live-updates-03-22-2022

[Pathfinder]

I don't believe Putin cares anything about his human losses.  I do believe that he has to be successful or he will be replaced. 

I see the map of what Putin has taken in Ukraine.  The major Ukraine cities, if not overrun, are surrounded.  Right now, though protracted, it's looking like a bloody, messy 4th quarter win coming for Putin.

There was a "press conference" aired in Russia wherein Putin had all of his top advisors sitting in a semi-circle, and he went person by person demanding they gige their "opinion" on invading Ukraine. The fear on their faces was obvious, and when the top intelligence guy kinda waffled on saying "DA!", Putin grilled him for 3-4 minutes - on camera. Replacing him will take a coup, doubt it will come from the party.

Most of the Ukraine cities are not surrounded, certainly not Kyiv. Heavily damaged, yes, especially Mariupol. In fact, yesterday the report was that the Ukraines had actually pushed Russian troops away from Kyiv some 20 miles or so.

My wife and I watched a Ukrainian movie last night called Kruty 1918. A battle raged at a train station where 400 army cadets and 300 students held off 3000 bolshevik troops for a day. There is now a memorial there, not only for the defense but for the 30 or so students the bolsheviks murdered after they took the station. I mention this only because the Russians tried to take and destroy the monument recently, but were driven back leaving over 200 dead in the process - according to the Ukraines.

Interesting article today that the Green Berets have helped the Ukrainians since 2014, training them in small unit and guerrilla tactics. Given the estimated 10k+ Russian dead and thousands of destroyed vehicles, I would say the training helped.

That said, if Putin gets really nervous, well, he is EX-KGB and I would think that almost any action would be do-able on his part. That is where the coup might happen. The Russian .mil has seen how poorly their men and materiel have faired against a small army and an insurgency, and the risk of antagonizing NATO (toothless as it has often been) may be too much. One can only hope. I saw a report where one of the Russian prototype nextgen tanks - a one-off tank - had been knocked out. If they're throwing untried weapons into the battle - with no spares and possible limited training for the crews - they must be scrapping the bottom of the barrel.

BTW, I don't think Putin threw his least trained into this, I think he sent the standing Army in (in various guises), not expecting the violence of the Ukraine resistance nor the speed at which the Russian army depleted itself of men and materiel. Remember 2014 - that is more of what he was expecting, especially with Brandon at the helm here (backed by the ass-kissing Austin and Miley).

What we are seeing is evidence of Russia still suffering after the Soviet collapse, and the fact that the ruble has never really been stable enough to fund significant increases in their military establishment. Thus they were quickly unable to muster a credible threat in spite of all of Putin's blustering. Individually or in small numbers I'm sure the Russians could be a handful. But, damn, the Ukraines sank one of the Russian warships in the Black Sea.

[Big Frank]

The more I follow this over the days, the more I think of Red Dawn.

The movie came to mind the first day of the invasion, as citizens picked up guns, made improvised weapons, and as manufacturers are switching from merchandise to war products, I keep waiting for the movie credits to roll.  Now I read that a second mayor of a city has been captured by the Russians.

Throughout social media there are items floating about "nobody needs an AR-15 or AK-47."  The next photo is typically a young Ukrainian girl with an AK.  I have debated this with people, and they claim we still don't need them, because, even though it would never happen here, if we ever need them the government will hand them out.  How many here see our government ever agreeing within themselves to call citizens into action?

I never thought about it being like Red Dawn but it is in a lot of ways. This meme answers the anti's question, why? But they still don't get it. And IMO our government would never hand out weapons to the citizenry. They're more afraid of us than they are of living under socialist rule.

[Big Frank]

Maybe true but I still think that if things get worse for me he will escalate the war and if it gets to the point he knows he cannot win he, in my opinion, would use a nuke on Ukraine! I believe he thinks Biden is weak and will not retaliate so he could do this without much reprisal. This is wrong and I believe that if the U.S. did nothing some other nuke capable country would bomb him back. Ant that point, BOHICA.  IMHO!

Don't you remember Biden's warning to Putin back in December?